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Yeah if that's a legitimate center reformation the 12z runs are useless.

Recon should get another fix in about 30 minutes.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:14 am They explicitly said 'leans towards the typically reliable GFS and Euro.'

The Euro that has only a handful out of 50 ensemble members e of the border? That Euro?

And the UKIE has scored best with Laura with the constant riding the SW side of the envelope - why would that suddenly change too?

Scottie,

Maybe they are waiting for the 5 pm...I mean...well I am just as perplexed as you are. Very very odd.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:50 am Well...they did give themselves a disclaimer....

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.

Add the size of Laura into a 100 mile (Houston to the LaTX border) error.

Get ready. I have a week fence IMBY. Time to get some steel poles and concrete.

Well ole collin isn't concerned

Watched Bastardi and his energy report...he thinks Galveston and Houston have a big problem...I know many dont like him but he is loved by the oil companies and he rings the bell for them...something to think about?

I'm a bit surprised the NHC remained as far east in the 11am track. They don't seem to be buying the westward shift of the EURO. They think that ridging will break down. They do mention the likelihood of rapid strengthening in the Gulf however, and have Laura coming ashore as a dangerous 90 kt+ hurricane.

So was there a new center that formed ?

Marco has swept away the dry air in the GoM.

So if we have to wait until this evening, or even worse....tomorrow, to know for sure whether its coming to Houston as a near-major or full-fledged major, folks WILL NOT have time to board up and evacuate if necessary. This is going to be a hot mess. My company for one has barely even mentioned the weather in the gulf and we are 10 minutes from the coast.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:04 am So if we have to wait until this evening, or even worse....tomorrow, to know for sure whether its coming to Houston as a near-major or full-fledged major, folks WILL NOT have time to board up and evacuate if necessary. This is going to be a hot mess. My company for one has barely even mentioned the weather in the gulf and we are 10 minutes from the coast.

That’s right. And the question is WHY?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:55 am Well ole collin isn't concerned

I’m all for not causing a panic but I feel like that’s a bit irresponsible given the circumstances. Most people only know what’s on the NHC website and what local mets tell them. While nobody needs to panic, people very much need to be aware and prepare.

UKMET shifts east into Louisiana

If UKMET shifted then I throw my hands up.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:04 am So if we have to wait until this evening, or even worse....tomorrow, to know for sure whether its coming to Houston as a near-major or full-fledged major, folks WILL NOT have time to board up and evacuate if necessary. This is going to be a hot mess. My company for one has barely even mentioned the weather in the gulf and we are 10 minutes from the coast.

That’s been my fear this whole time. We have already lost half a day, and likely most of the day is now gone for evacuations and really letting people know to get in gear. Laura arrives overnight Wednesday and we may have nasty weather that morning depending on what happens with Marco’s remnants. So really, a day or day in a half to evac (only a day for places like Boliver that will be impassible quickly on Wednesday).

Let’s hope aren’t due a direct hit from a Cat 3 or 4 because if so, it’s going to be pandemonium.

Yep. Big shift on the Ukie.

I think when a contracted forecaster / meteorologist tells the off shore rigs to start preparing for a shutdown, knowing that cost millions of dollars...we might want to at least recognize that maybe? Also have a friend in the higher levels of plant management in the beaumont area and they are preparing for a plant shut down at 9:00am in the morning...what does that tell ya? Westward models...energy reacting...makes me doubt the NHC take for sure . Now i am even more apprehensive about my course of action! WOW it’s Monday for sure

Laura
When would it be safe to say Houston/Galveston is not in the cone or have concern?

I'm a little confused at everything I'm reading.

I'm over this already...