January 2025

[sambucol]

Liking the EURO

[snowman65]

Euro

Looks good but I dont understand the scale on the right. What is it telling us for Orange/Beaumont area?

[mcheer23]

Euro may be a bit nasty below I-10 light glaze of ice along with the snow.

[Cromagnum]

From Wxman 57 concerning the model runs...

None of the models is likely handling next week's upper flow pattern well. Don't trust any run - yet.

Interesting. He usually makes jokes about his wall when he's confident.

[sswinney]

12z Euro

Nice I’m under that pink purple blob right in the middle.

I’ll send yall pictures.

[tireman4]

The Noon Hour Update

AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the duration of the
TAF period, with north winds in the 5 to 10 knot range throughout
the course of the afternoon. Expect winds to become light and
variable overnight before shifting to the south and increasing
into tomorrow morning. Cigs should develop above MVFR levels with
the return of onshore winds. A brief window of fog is possible
late tonight and into tomorrow morning with the return of low-
level moisture, but chances remain marginal enough as to not
include in the current TAF package for now. Increasing clouds and
persistent south winds remain in the forecast tomorrow, with rain
chances picking up tomorrow night beyond the current TAF period.

[tireman4]

Nice explanation from the AustinMan at S2K

To amplify or not to amplify is the question. Problem is, the vorticity associated with the possible secondary shortwave to be is still south of the Aleutian Islands. Until it gets onshore Saturday/Sunday, we will probably continue to see very drastic back-and-forths and spread in the guidance. Unsurprisingly, the NBM probabilistic spread (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile, that is, the span of the middle 50%) for temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday is larger than the spread 10 days from now. A lot hinges on whether the secondary reinforcing cold can materialize.

[tireman4]

Weather Apps Explained
Chris Michaels
@WRAL_Michaels
CBM #768 | Meteorologist for WRAL in Raleigh, NC.

[sswinney]

Weather Apps Explained
Chris Michaels
@WRAL_Michaels
CBM #768 | Meteorologist for WRAL in Raleigh, NC.

Here’s an idea. Crowd sourced weather data and weather forecasting. I wonder if this type of an app has been considered. I’d start working on it but I’m no good at coding.

[Cpv17]

Snow probabilities of at least 1” from the Euro ensemble:

[Stratton20]

Loving that!

[DoctorMu]

how reliable is the cmc tho lol

On a scale of 0-10, where 10 is "most reliable," I'd give the CMC a negative 2

well that's encouraging

CMC nailed the February 2021 storm

[DoctorMu]

From Wxman 57 concerning the model runs...

None of the models is likely handling next week's upper flow pattern well. Don't trust any run - yet.

Interesting. He usually makes jokes about his wall when he's confident.

He’s right you know…this time.

[snowman65]

Snow probabilities of at least 1” from the Euro ensemble:

I'll take that for sure!!!

[tireman4]

The HGX NWS folks have a new weather product. It is called Winter Weather and it is can by scrolling on the Forecasts icon. This could be interesting next week.

[DoctorMu]

12z Euro

Yep. This air is dense- a 1058 mb high in Canada. It’s crashing down the spine of the Rockies. The cold is in place when the disturbance comes. The setup is (still) there. The rest is luck 5 days out.

cid:1f0e2ee7-621c-4227-9530-4d6d2be071bc@namprd11.prod.outlook.com

Physics wins.

Helwithitthescreensavr. See POW Ponder’s latest.

[sambucol]

If we do indeed get ice or snow in SETX, how long will that last?

[Brazoriatx979]

If we do indeed get ice or snow in SETX, how long will that last?

probably melt Thursday or Friday but freeze again if we get below freezing

[Stormlover2020]

Snow pack up north, snow down here with cold in place, Tuesday-Friday snow will stick around on ground in most places that have trees and shade

[Cpv17]

Snow pack up north, snow down here with cold in place, Tuesday-Friday snow will stick around on ground in most places that have trees and shade

That sounds about right.