August 2020:

[Kingwood36]

why dont we WAIT till it get away from cuba to start trusting the models

[tireman4]

Our Brooks Garner...

11:31 eastern 8/24/20 - Cayman Island radar shows the center of tropical storm #Laura spinning in what appears a bit farther south than model initialization, indicating a potential westward shift of its track(?) If you're on the left side of the cone, don't let your guard down. pic.twitter.com/uTE4TPQrnN
-- Brooks (@BrooksWeather) August 24, 2020

[tireman4]

wouldn't focus too much on the HWRF's exact intensity at this point. Cat 5 is very unlikely, especially given that the broad system could take a while to form an inner core in the Gulf of Mexico, but regardless the TX coastline should prepare for significant impact. https://t.co/9keeuIu4Qb
-- Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 24, 2020

[TXWeatherMan]

Laura
When would it be safe to say Houston/Galveston is not in the cone or have concern?

I'm a little confused at everything I'm reading.

When it gets off of Cuba and starts organizing more

[txbear]

Yep. Big shift on the Ukie.

Believe it? I think it's going to take another round of ingesting Recon data/fixes from the models to get any sense of possible clarity. I don't know what to believe at this point.

ETA: At some point the models will initialize correctly, we would hope.

[Kingwood36]

I dont understand why they keep saying tezas should prepare for significant impact when they keep changing the cone?

[vci_guy2003]

Has the UKMET always shown a Texas landfall or has it waffled back and forth any?

[Stormlover2020]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... orm_13.gif

I mean it’s right on the tx/la border ukie is

[Andrew]

UKMET shifts east into Louisiana

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM LAURA      ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N  79.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 24.08.2020    0  21.0N  79.7W     1000            41
    0000UTC 25.08.2020   12  22.5N  83.2W      995            47
    1200UTC 25.08.2020   24  23.8N  86.3W      992            48
    0000UTC 26.08.2020   36  25.1N  89.3W      984            54
    1200UTC 26.08.2020   48  26.6N  91.8W      972            67
    0000UTC 27.08.2020   60  28.5N  93.4W      954            74
    1200UTC 27.08.2020   72  31.2N  93.5W      961            43
    0000UTC 28.08.2020   84  34.2N  92.4W      974            41
    1200UTC 28.08.2020   96  36.4N  90.5W      979            47
    0000UTC 29.08.2020  108  37.7N  86.5W      978            37
    1200UTC 29.08.2020  120  38.1N  79.7W      983            27
    0000UTC 30.08.2020  132  39.8N  72.4W      976            44
    1200UTC 30.08.2020  144  44.1N  65.2W      966            52

[sau27]

Where are yall seeing the 12z UKMET?

[DoctorMu]

Our Brooks Garner...

11:31 eastern 8/24/20 - Cayman Island radar shows the center of tropical storm #Laura spinning in what appears a bit farther south than model initialization, indicating a potential westward shift of its track(?) If you're on the left side of the cone, don't let your guard down. pic.twitter.com/uTE4TPQrnN
-- Brooks (@BrooksWeather) August 24, 2020

TG for some sanity.

[mcheer23]

Has anyone noticed the day models(12-18z) with Laura have been shifting east, and the night models (00-06z) shift west

[Cromagnum]

Marco looks to be a naked swirl now. Sacrificial lamb for all the dry air that was in the gulf.

[TXWeatherMan]

Has anyone noticed the day models with Laura have been shifting east, and the night models shift west

Yeah, I wonder why that is?

[Scott747]

Recon is headed in for another fix. If it confirms that there was a relocation then we can basically toss the 12 z runs as it appears to be sizable enough to have impact on the eventual track.

Could also reaffirm the original center status quo.

[Cpv17]

I’m sure 57 has a projection already... can someone tell us what he’s saying?

[Kingwood36]

I’m sure 57 has a projection already... can someone tell us what he’s saying?

I havent seen him post in a while

[vci_guy2003]

Will watches/warnings be issued at the 5pm advisory?

[Cpv17]

Has anyone noticed the day models(12-18z) with Laura have been shifting east, and the night models (00-06z) shift west

Yeah. Someone mentioned that yesterday too.

[weatherguy425]

Has anyone noticed the day models(12-18z) with Laura have been shifting east, and the night models (00-06z) shift west

There was actual some chat on Twitter about this, especially Euro & EPS!