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Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:24 am
by Kingwood36
why dont we WAIT till it get away from cuba to start trusting the models
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:25 am
by tireman4
Our Brooks Garner...
11:31 eastern 8/24/20 - Cayman Island radar shows the center of tropical storm #Laura spinning in what appears a bit farther south than model initialization, indicating a potential westward shift of its track(?) If you're on the left side of the cone, don't let your guard down. pic.twitter.com/uTE4TPQrnN
-- Brooks (@BrooksWeather) August 24, 2020
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:25 am
by tireman4
wouldn't focus too much on the HWRF's exact intensity at this point. Cat 5 is very unlikely, especially given that the broad system could take a while to form an inner core in the Gulf of Mexico, but regardless the TX coastline should prepare for significant impact.
https://t.co/9keeuIu4Qb
-- Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 24, 2020
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:25 am
by TXWeatherMan
christinac2016 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:22 am
Laura
When would it be safe to say Houston/Galveston is not in the cone or have concern?
I'm a little confused at everything I'm reading.
When it gets off of Cuba and starts organizing more
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:26 am
by txbear
Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:20 am
Yep. Big shift on the Ukie.
Believe it? I think it's going to take another round of ingesting Recon data/fixes from the models to get any sense of possible clarity. I don't know what to believe at this point.
ETA: At some point the models will initialize correctly, we would hope.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:27 am
by Kingwood36
I dont understand why they keep saying tezas should prepare for significant impact when they keep changing the cone?
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:28 am
by vci_guy2003
Has the UKMET always shown a Texas landfall or has it waffled back and forth any?
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:29 am
by Stormlover2020
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:30 am
by Andrew
mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:17 am
UKMET shifts east into Louisiana
Code: Select all
TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 79.7W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2020 0 21.0N 79.7W 1000 41
0000UTC 25.08.2020 12 22.5N 83.2W 995 47
1200UTC 25.08.2020 24 23.8N 86.3W 992 48
0000UTC 26.08.2020 36 25.1N 89.3W 984 54
1200UTC 26.08.2020 48 26.6N 91.8W 972 67
0000UTC 27.08.2020 60 28.5N 93.4W 954 74
1200UTC 27.08.2020 72 31.2N 93.5W 961 43
0000UTC 28.08.2020 84 34.2N 92.4W 974 41
1200UTC 28.08.2020 96 36.4N 90.5W 979 47
0000UTC 29.08.2020 108 37.7N 86.5W 978 37
1200UTC 29.08.2020 120 38.1N 79.7W 983 27
0000UTC 30.08.2020 132 39.8N 72.4W 976 44
1200UTC 30.08.2020 144 44.1N 65.2W 966 52
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:31 am
by sau27
Where are yall seeing the 12z UKMET?
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:32 am
by DoctorMu
tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:25 am
Our Brooks Garner...
11:31 eastern 8/24/20 - Cayman Island radar shows the center of tropical storm #Laura spinning in what appears a bit farther south than model initialization, indicating a potential westward shift of its track(?) If you're on the left side of the cone, don't let your guard down. pic.twitter.com/uTE4TPQrnN
-- Brooks (@BrooksWeather) August 24, 2020
TG for some sanity.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:32 am
by mcheer23
Has anyone noticed the day models(12-18z) with Laura have been shifting east, and the night models (00-06z) shift west
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:32 am
by Cromagnum
Marco looks to be a naked swirl now. Sacrificial lamb for all the dry air that was in the gulf.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:33 am
by TXWeatherMan
mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:32 am
Has anyone noticed the day models with Laura have been shifting east, and the night models shift west
Yeah, I wonder why that is?
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:36 am
by Scott747
Recon is headed in for another fix. If it confirms that there was a relocation then we can basically toss the 12 z runs as it appears to be sizable enough to have impact on the eventual track.
Could also reaffirm the original center status quo.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:37 am
by Cpv17
I’m sure 57 has a projection already... can someone tell us what he’s saying?
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:38 am
by Kingwood36
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:37 am
I’m sure 57 has a projection already... can someone tell us what he’s saying?
I havent seen him post in a while
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:38 am
by vci_guy2003
Will watches/warnings be issued at the 5pm advisory?
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:38 am
by Cpv17
mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:32 am
Has anyone noticed the day models(12-18z) with Laura have been shifting east, and the night models (00-06z) shift west
Yeah. Someone mentioned that yesterday too.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:39 am
by weatherguy425
mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:32 am
Has anyone noticed the day models(12-18z) with Laura have been shifting east, and the night models (00-06z) shift west
There was actual some chat on Twitter about this, especially Euro & EPS!
