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The 12Z NAM (WRF/NMM) remains very suggestive in increasing shower/storm chances late tomorrow afternoon as a rather potent short wave drops SE in the NW flow aloft...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2012


.AVIATION...
WIND SHIFT WORKING SLOWLY SOUTH AND NEAR AN VCT-IAH-6R3 LINE WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH 11R-UTS-JAS LINE BUT IS RATHER DIFFUSE. WEST OR
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE WINDSHIFT AND BECOMING NORTH BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. ONLY A FEW RAGGED CU TODAY BUT SHOULD BECOME SCT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH. SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT HOU/SGR AND
MIGHT GET TO IAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONTINUES BUT MAY HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG/MIFG AT LBX/SGR IN THE MORNING. WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY WITH RIDGING EVIDENT OVER LA/E TX AND SFC TROUGHING ALONG
THE LOWER COAST LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OR STATIONARY. WATCHING THE
TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS OF LESS LIFT BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE ROLLING HILLS/NORTHERN HILL COUNTY AND BE
STEERED SOUTHEAST. THEY MAY RUN OUT OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
ENCOUNTER MORE CAP BEFORE GETTING INTO CLL AREA LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. IF THEY SURVIVE THEY WOULD HAVE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

wow, what a difference http://hint.fm/wind/

switched directions here between 10 & 11 am http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDWH.html

63 degrees this morning at 6 am in East Central Montgomery County

Felt great!

Looking like a steamy end to August. Glad to know Fall is right around the corner!!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 536 PM CDT...CHAMBERS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTING A
WATERSPOUT JUST OFF THE COAST OF BEACH CITY THAT IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR FM 2354. RESIDENTS IN THE
AREA SHOULD TAKE COVER NOW.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE BEACH CITY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

If Isaac follows the current forecat to Florida, it could pull some much lower humidity into Houston mid-next week.

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Upper level trough and old stationary frontal boundary over the NW Gulf combined with short waves in the NW flow aloft helping to produce a round thunderstorms off and along the coast this morning. Outflow boundaries from the offshore convection are moving back toward the coast at this time and will likely combine/help form the seabreeze which is starting to develop along the coast early this afternoon.

With weak short waves aloft moving over the area and boundaries/moisture approaching from the south expect a decent shot at thunderstorms south of I-10 this afternoon.

Should see a similar pattern Thursday and Friday with even better moisture likely resulting in a bit more rainfall coverage. Could see some heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds under storms over the next 2 days.

Forecast for the weekend is fairly summer like with highs in the 90’s and lows in the upper 70’s as the area comes back under the influence of the Gulf air mass. Afternoon thunderstorms on the seabreeze will be possible.

Into next week, will need to keep at least one eye on the track of Isaac as ECMWF model is fairly far to the left and would bring impacts this way, while the GFS and other global guidance keep the system over FL/east Gulf/west Atlantic. GFS has been performing very well this season in the tropics so hard to go against its thinking, but the ECMWF has been the best model over the past few years.

Sorry this is kinda off topic, wasn't sure where to post this question....

Where can I find a good link to galveston beach water conditions re: bacteria, surf, temp, jellyfish warnings etc?

Thanx!

You are one brave soul to set foot in that murky brown slop!

Anyway, this is the best I can find doing a quick search:

http://texasbeachsafety.org/galveston/

Thanx Jasons but its for a little research project! I'll stick to my pool.

I notice a cluster if thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico. I wonder if they will impact us.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

So we have had some nice storms move in from the Gulf the past 2 days, but our little corner of League City only got .10 inches combined while other areas nearby got almost 2 inches. We did get a little over an inch last Saturday, so I can't complain too much.
I can't wait until the first frontal system pushing a nice band of solid rain moves through the entire area. Hoping for any decent rain from these hit of miss showers is like playing the lottery! With Isaac's projected path well east of us, it will do little more than possibly give us a wind shift from the north. Cooler and drier. Cooler is welcome, drier is not.
Let's hope September has at least one good front for all of us!!

The northern areas are getting rain today.

Bless them they need it!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-291130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
624 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES AS THEY WRAP AROUND THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC AFTER IT MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE. REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON ISAAC.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

So now that Isaac is moving inland and will likely drag all of his rainfall with him, the drought watch resumes. I don't see much
chance that his rain bands will make it this far west. Also, it doesn't look like the seabreeze will fire today either.
Anyone see any light (or rain) on the horizon anytime soon?
My sprinklers are working OT!

Don't write off rain from Isaac just quite yet.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

TXC373-455-010000-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-120901T0000Z/
TRINITY TX-POLK TX-
631 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM
CDT FOR TRINITY AND NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES...

AT 625 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AND
SOUTHWEST OF DIBOLL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. A SECOND STRONG
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF GROVETON.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER RURAL AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY .

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 623 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MADISONVILLE OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN WALKER
COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY .

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.