Wx Infinity Forums

Hour 192 inland across E Texas:

Srain....
we've got that ridge parked over us though...
how would this pan out?

Rip76 wrote:Srain....
we've got that ridge parked over us though...
how would this pan out?

Because the Euro says we Won't have a ridge parked over us.

And that'll do it.

Anyone remember this via the GFS in the long range...

The European model has been accurate with hurricanes in the past.

Well...Mr. Euro sure made me sit up in my chair and my nose to the screen!

srainhoutx wrote:Hour 192 inland across E Texas:

LOL, 60-80 mph winds in Shreveport next Thursday Night for the A&M/La Tech Season Opener.

Can anyone say running attack?

srainhoutx wrote:Anyone remember this via the GFS in the long range...

Last Sunday's GFS run that started all this with Isaac!

Yeah, the GFS has a habit of seeing a pattern in the long-range, then shifting away in the mid-ranges, only to come back home in the short-term. Some things never change...

The latest euro certainly raises eyebrows
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

Sort of scary http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... 0_mex2.gif

Should we start buying supplies?

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012

LOCATING THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE CYCLONE HAS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED OUTER
CIRCULATION...THE INNER CORE HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED AND THERE ARE
STILL MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER.
HIGHLIGHTING THE ISSUE ARE DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42059...WHICH HAS
REPORTED 25-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT A POSITION SOUTHWEST OF
THE LATEST HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIXES...WHICH IN TURN WERE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER TRACKED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS A BLEND OF ALL THESE FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ISAAC SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...AND THIS PART OF THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT...SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5. DESPITE THE GENERAL
WESTWARD SHIFT...THE HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL CALL FOR ISAAC
TO MOVE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO FLORIDA AND OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST. THE 96-120 HR POINTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE
WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC SUGGESTS THAT ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WHICH COULD OCCUR IF THE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. WHILE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS IT...ISAAC COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY
ABOUT THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL IN HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24-36 HR.
AFTER THAT...PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE CURRENT 120 HR INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE
IF THE GLOBAL MODEL UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS VERIFY. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS
STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
ISAAC. THE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 16.0N 67.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.6N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 17.5N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 18.9N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 20.3N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/1800Z 23.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 27/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 28.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

michmich wrote:

Should we start buying supplies?

Way to early to do anymore than just speculate. It is always a good idea just to make sure you have the basic supplies for your hurricane kit but at this time we just have the Euro only showing a west solution like it did today. Just keep an eye on things and check the updates when they come out.

Shocked to see NHC barely nudged the track after the significant model shifts today and the shocking euro run...I think they are holding back for now for a few more runs of the euro. I have a feeling between now and tomorrow, there will be quite a hop west in the track... We shall see.

djmike wrote:Shocked to see NHC barely nudged the track after the significant model shifts today and the shocking euro run...I think they are holding back for now for a few more runs of the euro. I have a feeling between now and tomorrow, there will be quite a hop west in the track... We shall see.

Well the Euro hasn't been completely consistent with its runs lately and as a result I think the NHC is staying farther east for now. If more models start shifting farther west and the Euro stays consistent, then watch for a shift west. Right now I think the track looks pretty good and a central gulf coast/ east gulf coast hit looks most likely.

There are some trends via the GFS and Euro Ensembles today. The mean continues to slowly shift W with the GFS suggesting most members W of the Florida Peninsula and the Euro is even a tad further W with some members as far W as the Middle Texas Coast. I expect the track to continue to shift slightly W in time. As forecaster Beven stated, the G-IV and RECON NOAA mission data will be ingested into the 00Z suite overnight that is shared with the various operational guidance including the Euro, UKMet and Canadian.

djmike wrote:Shocked to see NHC barely nudged the track after the significant model shifts today and the shocking euro run...I think they are holding back for now for a few more runs of the euro. I have a feeling between now and tomorrow, there will be quite a hop west in the track... We shall see.

Same here djmike - I know it's a total different storm - but I'm having flash backs from Ike and waking up that Wednesday morning to see a bullseye over Freeport! Thankfully, we were prepared that year (pre-cut plywood and all). If it counts for anything, my guess is a TX/LA boarder hit.....but I have absolutely no basis on that other than "my gut" feeling. Wouldn't be surprised to see our area in the western part of that cone in a few days....for now its wait and see. And a great time to check your kits everyone.

Hmmm! Rita Redux