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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CST MON NOV 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262308Z - 270115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY SVR WINDS
MAY BE OF CONCERN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX SWWD ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND FARTHER W INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. A FRONTAL
INFLECTION NOTED E OF JUNCTION TX APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR A
SMALL...BUT PERSISTENT...AREA OF CONVECTION. RECENT STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN CNTRL TX ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT
DELINEATES THE WRN EDGE OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND EXTENDS FROM
JUST NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LA TO NORTH OF AUSTIN. DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...WEST OF WHICH A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL ASCENT
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT MAX ABOUT TO
EMERGE OVER CNTRL/SRN TX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MAY ALSO LEAD TO
AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR/SE OF
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH SVR HAIL
POSSIBLE...THOUGH ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR COULD LIMIT
THE THREAT. SVR WINDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE UNDERCUTTING
NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY MITIGATE THIS CONCERN.

..COHEN/DARROW.. 11/26/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29779389 29159550 29139676 29699819 30479838 30919740
31099640 30809520 30679395 29779389

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC053-453-491-270000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0118.121126T2321Z-121127T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
521 PM CST MON NOV 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BURNET COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 600 PM CST.

* AT 512 PM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARBLE
FALLS...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SPICEWOOD...SMITHWICK AND
LAGO VISTA.

SPC reconfigured Slight Risk back S and W to include most of SE TX including Harris and surrounding Counties.

AZ_ARIZONA_DESERT wrote:ITS TOO HUMID TOO WARM. NOT ENOUGH RAIN. WHATS GOING ON. I SEE THE UPCOMING FORECAST, 75,77,78,78.
IM SORRY,,,BUT THAT IS TOO DAMN WARM . ITS ALMOST DECEMBER. THIS IS FREAKING RIDICULOUS.SOMEONE DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT NOW

There's always next year, right?

Here ya go A_Z...head to Northern California...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2012

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 01 2012 - 12Z TUE DEC 04 2012

==================================================================
= EXTREME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR NRN CALIFORNIA INTO SUNDAY =
==================================================================

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN & MODEL PREFERENCE
=======================================
LATE THIS WEEK, THE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL FLATTEN AS TWO
OUT-OF-PHASE STREAMS OF THE WESTERLIES MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND PROGRESS TO THE MIDDLE OF
NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM, A REBUILDING POSITIVE
ANOMALY OVER THE BERING SEA/SIBERIA WILL ENSURE THAT TROUGHING IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RELOADS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY MINOR DETAIL ISSUES NOTED.
TO DEAL WITH THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY, THE PRESSURES WERE BASED
ON A 40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS THEREAFTER.


WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
STARTING WEDNESDAY, HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ONLY TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WANING THEREAFTER AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST AND THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
DECREASES. AREAL AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT (LEQ) AMOUNTS OF 10-15
INCHES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAVORED TERRAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH LOCAL LEQ AMOUNTS OF 20+ INCHES
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO EXTREME SNOW AMOUNTS (POSSIBLY WELL
IN EXCESS OF TEN FEET) ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SISKIYOUS
AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO AVALANCHES WELL
AFTER THE SNOW HAS ENDED. LESSER, THOUGH STILL SIGNIFICANT,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
(WHERE AREAL AVERAGE LEQ AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE) AND
NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (WHERE AREAL AVERAGE LEQ AMOUNTS OF
3-5 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED).

AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE
PLAINS, SOME GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE TAPPED LEADING TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

ROTH

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Lightning, thunder around 2:30 am, and judging by radar and local obs, a miserable tenth, give or take. No relief at all.

Depressing.

What's that saying -- "I cried because I had no shoes, then I saw a man who had no feet."

Ed, we got zilch in Austin. Nothing. Nada. Any semblence of a storm went north of us. We saw the lightning. We smelled the rain. And that was it.

Portastorm wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Lightning, thunder around 2:30 am, and judging by radar and local obs, a miserable tenth, give or take. No relief at all.

Depressing.

What's that saying -- "I cried because I had no shoes, then I saw a man who had no feet."

Ed, we got zilch in Austin. Nothing. Nada. Any semblence of a storm went north of us. We saw the lightning. We smelled the rain. And that was it.

Yep! Just south of you Portastorm and we got sprinkles. Just enough to get the road wet before the dry air kicked in this morning and cleared everything up. Some parts of Houston saw more rain last night than us here in the hill country have seen in months. Drought seems to be making its comeback.

I'M TIRED OF ALL THIS COLD WEATHER! 60 DEGREES FOR A HIGH IN NOVEMBER IS RIDICULOUS! WHEN WILL TEMPERATURES GET BACK INTO THE MORE REASONABLE 80S?? (my AZ_Desert impression) Temps return to near 80 for highs by this weekend!! Perhaps some rain early next week, and a return to this miserable cold for a few days...

80's this week..almost December, how depressing. When will be hitting freezing? Where is the snow/sleet

I picked up 0.09" last night which I will gladly take but now I am ready for 80F again.

A chilly 39 degrees up here in NW Harris County this morning. I've had to turn up the heat several times during the month of November. I'm looking forward to this upcoming warmup. If you want cold. And snow you can head to Mount Shasta in Northern California where up to 10 feet of snow is expected the next 4-7 days. Up to 20 inches of rain is also expected out W tat the lower elevations. Be careful what you wish for...

AZ_ARIZONA_DESERT wrote:I DONT CARE IF I AM ATTACKED OR WHATEVER. I WILL SAY WHATS ON MY MIND. 80S,IN DECEMBER,EVEN FOR HOUSTON IS COMPLETE BULL****. YEAH YEAH,,,,IT MAY BE POSSIBLE,BUT ITS NOT NORMAL.
WE NEED COLD WEATHER WE NEED RAIN WE NEED SNOW WE NEED IT NOW. THIS IS COMPLETE CRAP

I'm with you, buddy. I'm with you!

12Z GFS has something for everyone (almost). Nice warm temps for me this Fri-Sun (my 3 days off) and cold temps next Wed/Thu. Then warming up the next weekend for me. Not much rain, though. The 12Z GFS really backed off on rain with the front next week: