May: Isolated Showers To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

A couple of the short term meso models a 'sniffing' a potential MCS developing over portions of Central/N Central Texas later today into tonight. If those models are correct, an outflow boundary may slide SE as another piece of upper energy rotates beneath the upper low lifting NE. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

This area will be the one to watch for San Antonio/Austin and SE Texas:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152224Z - 160100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY/WEST-CENTRAL TX AND PERHAPS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE AS WELL THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...CU FIELD HAS DEEPENED A DEGREE
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HR ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX IN GENERAL VICINITY OF A
BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION TX CORRIDOR...WITH OTHER HIGHER-BASED CU
EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX FROM BETWEEN LUBBOCK-MIDLAND SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF FORT STOCKTON/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR
SANDERSON. HEATING/MIXING ASIDE...THE HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE ENHANCED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMA/JET STREAK PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND
DATA. SIMILAR TO SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM AND HIGH-RES
WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONG/SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND OTHER PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE SOMEWHAT RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE THE CU FIELD APPEARS RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR/SOUTH OF DEL RIO...A STORM OR TWO
DEVELOPING/CROSSING THE BORDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40+ KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH SOME MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT COULD MATERIALIZE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2013


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

[unome]

from Texas Storm Chasers' Facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/TxStormChasers ... 3880449654

Tornado has been CONFIRMED 1 mile west of Belcherville (Montague County). Tornado is rain-wrapped and will not be visible. Those in Nacona need to seek shelter! A tornado has been confirmed!

[srainhoutx]

^^

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160...

VALID 152240Z - 152345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 160...WITH THE LARGEST HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS AS
WELL MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX...MONITORING FOR A
PARTIAL TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE.

DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION PRIMARILY CONCERNS NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WHERE
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF A
CLUSTERING BAND OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...CU FIELD CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST OF
WICHITA FALLS SSW TO GRAHAM AND BROWNWOOD AREAS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHWARD TOWARD
SOMEWHAT COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEST TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE NOTED NEAR/EAST OF
THE CONFLUENT AXIS...WITH A RECENT TREND OF BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
/SOUTHEASTERLY/ AND AS MUCH AS 150-175 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH PER
MODIFIED FORT WORTH WSR-88D VWP. THIS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF AT
LEAST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING...SUCH THAT A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2013


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

[Andrew]

Strong storm with some rotation headed towards Fort Worth:

[unome]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXC337-497-160015-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130516T0015Z/
MONTAGUE TX-WISE TX-
648 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
WISE AND SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTIES...

AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHICO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CHICO AROUND 710 PM CDT...
ALVORD AROUND 715 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3350 9749 3321 9750 3329 9791 3331 9792
3343 9792 3343 9797 3347 9798 3351 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 282DEG 19KT 3343 9789

$$


82/JLD

[Andrew]

Update:

[srainhoutx]

Large wedge tornado near Millsap. Debris ball and falling debris from clouds noted

Live Stream:

http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/b4599.htm

[Andrew]

Rotation looks to have decreased on the storms west of Forth worth.

[unome]

lots of coverage here also: https://www.facebook.com/28storms?filter=1

[Andrew]

Watch out south of Fort Worth

[Andrew]

Southern storm is showing the dominate rotation now with a good FFD. Watch out south of Cleburne

[srainhoutx]

Live streaming from KHOU sister station in Dallas WFAA:

http://www.wfaa.com/video?id=139367478&sec=553117

[Andrew]

70kt winds on base velocity for Johnson county storm. Well established rotation there!

[unome]

Fox Dallas reporting mile-wide wedge tornado south of Cleburne

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... S&loop=yes

[unome]

geeze...

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
TXC251-160245-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0016.130516T0223Z-130516T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
923 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 923 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO
NEAR CLEBURNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED
THAT THIS IS A MILE WIDE TORNADO...CAPABLE OF INCREDIBLE
DESTRUCTION. THIS TORNADO HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK AND WAS MOVING
NORTH RIGHT AT THE CITY OF CLEBURNE! IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...TAKE
COVER IMMEDIATELY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE!

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CLEBURNE AROUND 930 PM CDT...
KEENE AND JOSHUA AROUND 945 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO HAS
BEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
UNDERGROUND OR TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 9746 3247 9738 3245 9722 3228 9723
3229 9741 3234 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 205DEG 14KT 3233 9741

$$


CAVANAUGH

[unome]

Aerial image from Granbury area storm damage via @wfaachannel8 #txwx pic.twitter.com/tO0wRCsBJL

https://twitter.com/AustinKellerman/sta ... 88/photo/1

[biffb816]

Allegedly from Hood County @ 9:15.

[spadilly]

Per @ScottGordonNBC5:

New pic of destroyed home in Granbury. This area was hit hard. @nbcdfw

Another picture. Houses demolished. Cars and trucks overturned. @nbcdfw