December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

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srainhoutx
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Both the 12Z GFS and the Parallel GFS are back with wintry mischief along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coastal areas on New Years Eve into New Years Day as a Coastal low develops along the Lower Texas Coast and moves ENE.
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srainhoutx
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Back to the post earlier about the models struggling 24 hours out, NWS Lubbock just issued this...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1058 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SEVERAL SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...LOWERING HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AND ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NRN AND WRN ZONES FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE NOT YET MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
PERIODS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A SWATH OF
HEALTHY QPF /FROM ABOUT A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH/ TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
STICKING POINT WITH REGARDS TO SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS THE NEAR-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR 30-32F DURING
THE TIME PRECIP FALLS. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT
AND IMPACT OF SNOWFALL AS MUCH OF IT MELTS ON IMPACT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...WE REMAIN CONCERNED
THAT DYNAMIC COOLING AND IMPRESSIVE PRECIP RATES COULD OVERCOME
THE WARM NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS AND LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS
THREAT MAY END UP BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE TRENDS WITH
AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
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snowman65 wrote:Is Dec 31-Jan 3 just looking cold and wet with no "fun" for Austin area?
There's always fun in Austin, what do you mean?! ;)

As srainhoutx said, the 12z GFS and PGFS show icy weather for Austin on 12/31 and 1/1. Still a long ways to go and we may not have much confidence in the forecast for another week.
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I've had to consider 850 temps, sfc wind direction and cloud over to get any sort of accurate ball park on these highs/lows in the 7-day ... MOS/progs seem never to grasp just how cold these shallow, snow-cooled arctic air masses are... Guidance is usually 7°-10° too warm. I have a feeling we're going to have a lot to talk about in January with wintry wx chances...
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro also suggests a wintry mess along Coastal Texas into Louisiana on New Years Eve into New Years Day and has a Coastal Low/wave developing along the Lower Texas Coast moving NE.
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srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z Euro also suggests a wintry mess along Coastal Texas into Louisiana on New Years Eve into New Years Day and has a Coastal Low/wave developing along the Lower Texas Coast moving NE.
srain, you sure know how to get folks interested.
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There's always fun in Austin, what do you mean?! ;)

We are heading there (Spicewood) Dec 31 until Jan 3. I meant fun as in "wintry mischief" as they like to put it. Would like to see some but at the same time I don't want driving hazards. If I going to have to be inside on NYE then it better be for a good reason :)
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Heat Miser wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z Euro also suggests a wintry mess along Coastal Texas into Louisiana on New Years Eve into New Years Day and has a Coastal Low/wave developing along the Lower Texas Coast moving NE.
srain, you sure know how to get folks interested.
More snow in Taos where I will be arriving 3 weeks from today. ;) These strong troughs dropping into the Desert SW, Arizona and Northern Mexico and crossing Texas bode well for an active storm track. Now the temperatures are very questionable at this range. The current storm developing to our NW is a lot stronger than 24 hours ago. Blizzard Warnings have been hoisted across the Rockies in Colorado and I wouldn't be surprised to see those extended into New Mexico and possibly into the front range in New Mexico and W/NW Texas. Time will tell.
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srainhoutx
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Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front will sweep across the area Tuesday.

Potent upper level storm system will move across the plains and into the OH valley early to mid this week allowing a cold air mass to move southward across TX starting Tuesday. Low level warm advection is in progress today with southerly winds pumping moisture back into the region. Main dynamics with this storm system will be northeast of SE TX, so not expecting much in the way of rainfall or severe weather compared to locations just to our east on Tuesday. Could see a line of showers with the front. Main news will be the strong post frontal winds of 20-30mph on Tuesday as cold air moves into the region from the north. Temperatures Tuesday morning in the lower 60’s will fall into the 40’s by late afternoon under strong cold air advection.

Will go ahead and lower both highs and lows for both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day as upstream air mass is slightly colder than projected yesterday. Some locations could be close to freezing Christmas morning and while southerly winds will return during the day, the warm up will be tempered by the cold start so instead of near 70 probably lower 60’s for highs. Skies will be sunny both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Long Range:
Problems and a lot of them in the extended as models continue to attempt to grasp a potential arctic air intrusion into the US in the days before New Year’s. There has actually been very little change in the upper air pattern features of a ridge building into Alaska and a large and deep downstream trough carving out over much of the US. The upper air pattern would suggest arctic air is delivered into the US via Montana and North Dakota around the 28-29th and then pours southward down the spine of the Rockies and into TX by the 31st. Surface pressures on the order of 1050mb or greater over Montana toward the end of December is certainly noteworthy.

While the source region of NW Canada is not exceptionally cold at the moment the setup in the flow aloft would appear to bring the currently bitter cold northern Russian air mass into NW Canada by early to mid next week and then deliver it southward into the US during the mid to late part of next week.

Of other interest continues to be the threat for a fairly strong storm system to move across TX with a potentially cold arctic air mass in place. This raises all kinds of P-type concerns from the 31st into the 2nd across much of the state including SE TX. The amount of cold air that moves southward will likely determine the overall outcome with respect to P-type during this period along with any potential for accumulations. Needless to say… the mid to late week period next week will be the main forecast focus over the next several days.


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Brooks Garner makes a great point about the guidance running too warm at the surface with arctic fronts. I think the most encouraging run I've seen today was the 12z Euro showing good depth of cold air with the 850mb 0c isotherm well into the gulf. That would prevent any type of ice storm/frz rain scenario.

Good discussion from Jeff there. We're getting close to the 1 week range for the arctic front and models seem to be converging on a cold pattern. We'll need to see a lot more runs showing winter wx to have any confidence and even then, it's iffy in SE TX.

My guess is it will be frigid in Taos, NM if the arctic front comes through there, with one of the cold fronts in November they hit -23F at Angelfire Airport. When I was staying in the Ski Valley in August at ~10000 ft elevation it was already getting into the 30s at night.

Here's a look at temps in our source region, -20s are currently confined to N Central Canada:

Image

We need to see the cold intensifying and spreading into NW Canada in the coming week.
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Winter Weather Advisories issued for the Lubbock area for tonight into tomorrow morning for light snow possibly causing some travel issues.
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The afternoon Updated CPC Day 8+ Analogs and Discussions prove interesting as we begin to get closer to the end of December and early January.
12222014 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON DECEMBER 22 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 28, 2014 - JAN 01, 2015

TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
ALASKA. THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA, A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
DISMISSED AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION DUE TO ITS MUCH DIFFERENT FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC. POOR MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH TODAY'S 0Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATING MUCH HIGHER 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO ITS MODEL RUN FROM YESTERDAY. SPREAD IS
RELATIVELY SMALL AMONG TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SUPPORTS THE 0Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TELECONNECTIONS UPON A
POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY CENTER WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (50N 135W), PREDICTED
BY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS, SUPPORTS THE ORIENTATION OF A POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEPICTED BY THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THEREFORE, THE 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND IS WEIGHTED MOST
HEAVILY WITH THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED DUE
TO POOR MODEL CONTINUITY. TODAY'S HIGH RESOLUTION 12Z GFS MODEL IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.


THE COVERAGE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ON
YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, IS REDUCED DUE TO HIGHER 500-HPA HEIGHTS
PREDICTED BY THE PREFERRED 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. MEANWHILE, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS IS ABOVE-AVERAGE AS A 1044-HPA
SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON DAYS 6 AND 7.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES F BELOW-NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAY 7. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUS COLD
PREDICTED EARLY IN THIS PERIOD.


ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
DAY 6. THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS.
A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INCREASES CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA, WHILE THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS
LIKELY TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST.

ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW, EAST OF THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA, INCREASES
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH
OF ALASKA.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
80% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
POOR MODEL CONTINUITY AND LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS.
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Today is the 25th anniversary of the largest temp drop I've ever experienced. Longview, TX... From 76 to 1 degree in 30 hours.
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The 00Z GFS is consistent with developing a wintry mess near the New Year. Perhaps someone will begin a new thread as January 2015 approaches. ;)
The attachment 12232014 00Z GFS 240 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png is no longer available
12232014 00Z GFS 252 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png
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wow this would be awesome if this run verified! i guess trend is what we are looking for fo the next 7-8 days
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ticka1 wrote:wow this would be awesome if this run verified! i guess trend is what we are looking for fo the next 7-8 days
The 00Z Parallel GFS suggests a 1054mb Arctic High in Wyoming at hour 192. This is before truncation and is noteworthy that the guidance tends to under estimate cold dense airmasses at this range. Also notice the storm nearing California. That is our New Years wintry mess that has been showing up via the Global guidance for a while now. The Euro, both versions of the GFS and the Canadian have been 'sniffing' this winter storm for a few days as we get into the range that may be valid. Time will tell.
12232014 00Z P GFS gfs_namer_192_10m_wnd_precip.gif
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If this does verify, what kind of temps would we have in the SE Texas?
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sambucol, a lot depends on cloud cover as that can limit the radiational cooling at night and prevent overnight lows from tanking. I would think we're more likely to be stuck in the low 30s overcast given the pattern. Difficult to forecast this far in advance but the PGFS is showing a very robust high in a weeks time. The 0z GFS has well over an inch of liquid overrunning during the new year's time frame.
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The 00Z Canadian suggests a snow storm across The Lower Rio Grande Valley, S Central and SE Texas.
12232014 00Z GEM 234 gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png
12232014 00Z GEM 240 gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png
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That there is some model run. I hope it verifies as I will be in Austin :). Not hanging my hat on it just yet, though,
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