April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather

[unome]

hearing some distant lightning/thunder

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_dynamic_maps.php?map=31

http://lightning.nmt.edu/hstnlma/curren ... oints.html

[Andrew]

I share concern with Jeff in respect to the SE to NW line just west of the Houston region. This is something that is well ahead of the expected activity later tonight and tomorrow and would only increase the flooding threat for those areas.

[davidiowx]

Radar is certainly becoming more active on the SW and W side of town. Here in Sugarland, we have had quite a few rain showers. Some moderate rain at times.

IF the radar fills in throughout the night as the main event arrives, it may be quite an event here. Time to start watching radar trends. Model watching is out the window now.

[unome]

special weather statement
national weather service houston/galveston tx
730 pm cdt sun apr 17 2016

txz210-226-180115-
colorado tx-wharton tx-
730 pm cdt sun apr 17 2016

...special weather statement...

at 729 pm cdt... doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13 miles east of speaks... or 16 miles northwest of el campo...moving northwest at 35 mph.

winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

locations impacted include...
columbus...weimar...sheridan and rock island.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm... and may lead to localized flooding. do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

this storm may intensify... so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the national weather service.

[djjordan]

Radar is certainly becoming more active on the SW and W side of town. Here in Sugarland, we have had quite a few rain showers. Some moderate rain at times.

IF the radar fills in throughout the night as the main event arrives, it may be quite an event here. Time to start watching radar trends. Model watching is out the window now.

I was thinking the same thing about model watching a few hours ago when I saw the streamer showers starting to increase in intensity.... but then I had to step out and go to the store LOL. Going to be keeping a close eye on trends tonight.

[davidiowx]

Radar is certainly becoming more active on the SW and W side of town. Here in Sugarland, we have had quite a few rain showers. Some moderate rain at times.

IF the radar fills in throughout the night as the main event arrives, it may be quite an event here. Time to start watching radar trends. Model watching is out the window now.

I was thinking the same thing about model watching a few hours ago when I saw the streamer showers starting to increase in intensity.... but then I had to step out and go to the store LOL. Going to be keeping a close eye on trends tonight.

Better to get it out of the way now! I'm about to get some pretty heavy rains. Lightning and thunder has picked up a lot as well.

[djjordan]

Radar is certainly becoming more active on the SW and W side of town. Here in Sugarland, we have had quite a few rain showers. Some moderate rain at times.

IF the radar fills in throughout the night as the main event arrives, it may be quite an event here. Time to start watching radar trends. Model watching is out the window now.

I was thinking the same thing about model watching a few hours ago when I saw the streamer showers starting to increase in intensity.... but then I had to step out and go to the store LOL. Going to be keeping a close eye on trends tonight.

Better to get it out of the way now! I'm about to get some pretty heavy rains. Lightning and thunder has picked up a lot as well.

Tremendous downpour going on at my house .... Lightning and Thunder as well. This is just the beginning.

[ticka1]

will this stay stationary or have any movement towards downtown or east of i-45

[Andrew]

will this stay stationary or have any movement towards downtown or east of i-45

Overall movement has a slight easterly component to it but it will take a while. I would keep an eye further to the south and east upstream to see what develops there.

[ticka1]

will this stay stationary or have any movement towards downtown or east of i-45

Overall movement has a slight easterly component to it but it will take a while. I would keep an eye further to the south and east upstream to see what develops there.

thanks andrew -several friends under the gun right now. keeping an eye to the sky

[Andrew]

will this stay stationary or have any movement towards downtown or east of i-45

Overall movement has a slight easterly component to it but it will take a while. I would keep an eye further to the south and east upstream to see what develops there.

thanks andrew -several friends under the gun right now. keeping an eye to the sky

For sure. I am starting to get it here on the Katy freeway by the City Centre and there is constant lightning. Very convective in nature.

[unome]

special weather statement
national weather service houston/galveston tx
810 pm cdt sun apr 17 2016

txz210-226-235-180215-
jackson tx-colorado tx-wharton tx-
810 pm cdt sun apr 17 2016

...significant weather advisory for west central wharton... colorado and north central jackson counties until 915 pm cdt...

at 810 pm cdt... doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15 miles southwest of eagle lake...moving northwest at 20 mph.

half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

locations impacted include...
columbus... weimar... sheridan... rock island... altair... garwood and nada.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm... and may lead to localized flooding. do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

this storm may intensify... so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the national weather service.

[Andrew]

Latest from Jeff:

"Things not going as planned at all this evening with widespread development ongoing W of I-45 across SE TX. No good reason as to why these SE to NW bands have developed except maybe a surge in higher PW off the Gulf and maybe some surface speed convergence…there is no low level boundary in place (yet anyways). Large MCS with excessive rainfall from SE of Waco to W of College Station showing stalling wave echo pattern and these storms are dumping tremendous rainfall. Just looking at radar trends and throwing all the meso guidance out (since it is doing a very poor job) suggest the activity west of SE TX merging with the stuff SE of Waco this evening likely over our NW set of counties. This will be when the flash flood threat really ramps up for those NW counties.

Further SE over the rest of SE TX west of I-45 not sure how long this training of SE to NW bands is going to continue. Banding looks more and more organized by the hour which is concerning that all this development will eventually force some low level boundary at the surface and continue to focus activity all night in strong low level Gulf feed.

Already pushing over 3 inches in NW Wharton County and over and inch in central Fort Bend up into Waller County. Think western Harris will have a solid inch with the next band coming up from the SE currently over Addicks back SE to Stafford. Potential is increasing to starting piling up the rainfall totals with these bands if the training sustains itself this evening. "

[houstonia]

Well... that doesn't sound good, does it? So, what Jeff is saying is that we are getting heavy rain (and thunder) in SE Texas when we were not supposed to have it until tomorrow? And because so, he's concerned about the amount of rain piling up?

"

[Texashawk]

So wait... We have a 60% chance of rain right now. What exactly was unexpected?

-Steve

Latest from Jeff:

"Things not going as planned at all this evening with widespread development ongoing W of I-45 across SE TX. No good reason as to why these SE to NW bands have developed except maybe a surge in higher PW off the Gulf and maybe some surface speed convergence…there is no low level boundary in place (yet anyways). Large MCS with excessive rainfall from SE of Waco to W of College Station showing stalling wave echo pattern and these storms are dumping tremendous rainfall. Just looking at radar trends and throwing all the meso guidance out (since it is doing a very poor job) suggest the activity west of SE TX merging with the stuff SE of Waco this evening likely over our NW set of counties. This will be when the flash flood threat really ramps up for those NW counties.

Further SE over the rest of SE TX west of I-45 not sure how long this training of SE to NW bands is going to continue. Banding looks more and more organized by the hour which is concerning that all this development will eventually force some low level boundary at the surface and continue to focus activity all night in strong low level Gulf feed.

Already pushing over 3 inches in NW Wharton County and over and inch in central Fort Bend up into Waller County. Think western Harris will have a solid inch with the next band coming up from the SE currently over Addicks back SE to Stafford. Potential is increasing to starting piling up the rainfall totals with these bands if the training sustains itself this evening. "

[Andrew]

Well... that doesn't sound good, does it? So, what Jeff is saying is that we are getting heavy rain (and thunder) in SE Texas when we were not supposed to have it until tomorrow? And because so, he's concerned about the amount of rain piling up?

"

Basically the training that is occurring now was not forecasted. So this is all bonus for tomorrow too.

[davidiowx]

It is coming down in buckets here. Constant lightning as well

[unome]

area forecast discussion
national weather service houston/galveston tx
829 pm cdt sun apr 17 2016


.aviation...
showers and thunderstorms developing in a swath from near byy-bay city to lvj-pearland to cll-college station where ll convergence appears to be maximized. broad diffluence aloft with a moist sounding to near 600 mb with ongoing deep convection. have made some change to tafs to highlight the prevailing nature of storms through the next 12-24 hours. guidance is all over the place on where the heaviest rainfall will occur and timing... am expecting the swath of storms to continue and probably slowly shift further nw and n which will keep most terminals impacted by at a minimum showers and probably tsra at times. sounding from tamu cll just came in and it is juicy... 1.8 pw/k index 40/cape 1650 and 0-1km srh of 200. think that big impacts from storm clusters may occur after 12z for iah/hou (after this evenings). cigs should lower over the evening and mvfr will prevail between 1000-2000ft. lower cigs/visby with storms.

[unome]

special weather statement
national weather service houston/galveston tx
833 pm cdt sun apr 17 2016

...special weather statement...

at 832 pm cdt...doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near san felipe to near addicks park ten to piney point village. movement was north at 30 mph.

winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

locations impacted include...
western pearland... sugar land... missouri city... rosenberg... stafford... bellaire... west university place... katy... richmond... tomball... jersey village... sealy... hempstead... prairie view... brookshire... hunters creek village... bellville... bunker hill village... piney point village and pinehurst.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms...and may lead to localized flooding. do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

these storms may intensify...so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the national weather service.
45

[unome]

flood advisory
national weather service houston/galveston tx
853 pm cdt sun apr 17 2016

the national weather service in league city has issued a

* flood advisory for...
west central wharton county in southeastern texas...
south central colorado county in southeastern texas...

* until midnight cdt

* at 852 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. this will cause minor flooding in the advisory area. up to three to four inches of rain have already fallen.

* some locations that will experience flooding include... garwood and rock island.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams... country roads... farmland... and other low lying spots.

a flood advisory means river or stream flows are elevated... or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.