2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

That’s probably the only way we are going to get widespread rain at this point until el nino really kicks in starting late september

[user:null]

That’s probably the only way we are going to get widespread rain at this point until el nino really kicks in starting late september

I know. What I meant is that if the cyclone is organized, it HAS to hit Texas for good relief ... otherwise, it will heat/dry even more and whip fires if it goes towards Louisiana/east.

Whereas if nothing forms, it's a more disorganized inverted trough/diffuse surge, which will make it easier to retain rain chances even if some CoC goes east.

[DoctorMu]

That’s probably the only way we are going to get widespread rain at this point until el nino really kicks in starting late september

I know. What I meant is that if the cyclone is organized, it HAS to hit Texas for good relief ... otherwise, it will heat/dry even more and whip fires if it goes towards Louisiana/east.

Whereas if nothing forms, it's a more disorganized inverted trough/diffuse surge, which will make it easier to retain rain chances even if some CoC goes east.

Right - we want to order extra lemonade - a weak tropical system, with widespread rain, just a breeze, maybe gale force gusts.

[Stratton20]

Some 12z EPS members do suggest some mischief as the wave approaching the leeward islands tracks westward, notice the lack of ridging over texas hmmm, its centered over florida

[Cpv17]

Some 12z EPS members do suggest some mischief as the wave approaching the leeward islands tracks westward, notice the lack of ridging over texas hmmm, its centered over florida

This is why I’m not throwing in the flag yet and still feel like at least somewhat of a pattern change is coming for the second half of the month.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 im pretty much 100% confident their will be a weakness in the ridge down the road, ensembles show the ridge breaking down by the 17th or so leaving us wide open, will be interesting to see if the EPS guidance starts to increase again

[Cpv17]

From what I can remember, this is the warmest I’ve ever seen the Gulf. And it continues to rise..craziness!

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 holy moly! Ive never seen it that warm either

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 holy moly! Ive never seen it that warm either

It’s currently the warmest waters in the world.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 wow! Its just a matter of time when a tropical wave makes it into the gulf, if all other conditions aline , someone could be in very serious trouble along the gulf coast down the road

[jasons2k]

That whole thing is as warm or warmer than the infamous "loop current" that fueled Katrina and Rita.

[Cpv17]

That whole thing is as warm or warmer than the infamous "loop current" that fueled Katrina and Rita.

Yeah, no kidding. It’s freaking nuts how ridiculously warm the Gulf is. And what’s even crazier is that it continues to warm. That type of water could easily support a cat 5 in the right conditions. Scary to even think about. And something I’d never want to experience.

[Dls2010r]

It’s hot and I might be wrong but I’ve been told Galveston bay is shallow!!! Hard time supporting a cat 5. I’m not a weather guru but that’s what I’ve been told.

[Stratton20]

Even if the water is shallow their, their is plenty of deep warm water off the texas coast, and if a hurricane takes advantage of that, a little shallower water wont do much if its coming in as a cat 4-5

[Dls2010r]

I’m no meteorologist but I’ve been told it won’t support a cat 5. Beaumont different story.

[Cpv17]

I’m no meteorologist but I’ve been told it won’t support a cat 5. Beaumont different story.

I think you might be confused. Storms don’t form/strengthen over bays. They strengthen over large bodies of water like the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, Atlantic Ocean…

If a storm comes barreling into an area as a cat 5, it’s not just going to significantly weaken just cuz it’s crossing over a small shallow area of water.

Water temps in the Gulf of Mexico are at record high levels. It would easily support a Cat 4/5 hurricane right now given the right conditions such as low wind shear and a moist environment with rising air.

[Stratton20]

Kind of like hurricane laura back in 2020, it took advantage of those warm deep gulf waters and nearly became a cat 5, the shallow coastal shelf waters as it approached the coast pretty much did nothing to weaken laura

[jasons2k]

The west coat of Florida is extremely shallow and that did nothing to inhibit Charley or Matthew. With the right conditions, a Cat 5 would have no problem maintaining that intensity right up until landfall in Galveston.

Remember Harvey? It’s not much different in Port A. Ike was also strengthening at landfall.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The west coat of Florida is extremely shallow and that did nothing to inhibit Charley or Matthew. With the right conditions, a Cat 5 would have no problem maintaining that intensity right up until landfall in Galveston.

Remember Harvey? It’s not much different in Port A. Ike was also strengthening at landfall.

Took the words out of my mouth.

[DoctorMu]

I’m no meteorologist but I’ve been told it won’t support a cat 5. Beaumont different story.

I think you might be confused. Storms don’t form/strengthen over bays. They strengthen over large bodies of water like the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, Atlantic Ocean…

If a storm comes barreling into an area as a cat 5, it’s not just going to significantly weaken just cuz it’s crossing over a small shallow area of water.

Water temps in the Gulf of Mexico are at record high levels. It would easily support a Cat 4/5 hurricane right now given the right conditions such as low wind shear and a moist environment with rising air.

Right. A hurricane builds its strength over vast, warm bodies of water. Their momentum carries them through the coast, sometimes staying together for awhile inland if they are large or powerful enough.