Wx Infinity Forums

sau27 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:31 am Where are yall seeing the 12z UKMET?

Landfall near the border maybe a little east.

Why not a shift into Matagorda?

12z GEFS-Para:

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:41 am Why not a shift into Matagorda?

Most of the US-based models (GFS and HWRF) show a landfall along the border and points east. The latest UKMET now also shifted that direction. The Euro (ECMWF) is on the west side of the consensus (near us), which is the exact opposite of this time yesterday when it was closer to New Orleans. Let's see what the ECMWF shows in about an hour and what the recon finds, but there may be a consensus trying to form near the border.


EDIT: HMON actually goes west on 06z model. 12z coming now.

If it hits near the border the effects here would be minimal and no need to leave or put shutters up right? Maybe some wind and a little rain

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:49 am If it hits near the border the effects here would be minimal and no need to leave or put shutters up right? Maybe some wind and a little rain

Laura is a big storm. Its wind path is large. Do not let your guard down

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:49 am If it hits near the border the effects here would be minimal and no need to leave or put shutters up right? Maybe some wind and a little rain

That’s a tough decision for you because you are right there on the coast for me I’m about 50 miles inland and I have the ability to board up but I don’t have to.

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:41 am Why not a shift into Matagorda?

Matagorda is still very much in play.

Port Arthur issuing mandatory evacuation 6 am tomorrow morning

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:51 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:49 am If it hits near the border the effects here would be minimal and no need to leave or put shutters up right? Maybe some wind and a little rain

Laura is a big storm. Its wind path is large. Do not let your guard down

This.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:49 am If it hits near the border the effects here would be minimal and no need to leave or put shutters up right? Maybe some wind and a little rain

Not much of a storm surge threat for Greater Houston if the storm lands at the border, so no need for evacuations. I wouldn't worry about shutters/boarding up, either. Our windows held up just find during Ike in Friendswood with no protection. Rita came in at the LA/TX border, and all I remember experiencing was a breeze.

So all the BS aside...what is the current thinking on this? Will watches or warnings be issued for our area

12z GEFS ensembles

12Z HMON with a big shift right, back toward SW LA

**Jefferson County just issued voluntary evacuations ordered. Beaumont Orange and Port Arthur ordering a mandatory evacuation tomorrow at 6am!!

I have a feeling this is going to LA

Waded wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:14 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:49 am If it hits near the border the effects here would be minimal and no need to leave or put shutters up right? Maybe some wind and a little rain

Not much of a storm surge threat for Greater Houston if the storm lands at the border, so no need for evacuations. I wouldn't worry about shutters/boarding up, either. Our windows held up just find during Ike in Friendswood with no protection. Rita came in at the LA/TX border, and all I remember experiencing was a breeze.

And in Humble, where I live, we got near Hurricane force winds and torrential rain.

Port Arthur issuing mandatory tomorrow at 6:00am

i still believe the Models are having a hard time with Laura, so even with these shifts east we still should prepare. alot of windshield wiping going on.
once the center finishes relocating and it closer to gulf , i think we get a better lock down of location.

For Rita I think I had one rain band come through and that was all .... For Ike I was in Sugar Land and that was a rough night of no power, winds and rains knocked down fences and trees. Power was out for over a week in areas of my neighborhood but luckily our power came back within a day as it was on the same grid as most of the businesses on Hwy 6. With the models flip flopping on Laura, my motto is the same as any other storm. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best!! There is no doubt watches and warnings will be issued later today in some configuration. Even with a Direct hit at the border, Laura will be felt far from her center.