Wx Infinity Forums

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:20 am Herzog posted about potential lake effect snow down here. Hah!

Yep, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of lake effect off of Lake Conroe.

There was a lake effect snow band off of Lake Conroe that extended down into the Houston area with last years February storm.The snow was light though so i don't think most people even noticed it was associated with the lake.It was snowing with the sun out at the same time like a localized pop up shower.It will be interesting if we see if we get any "surprise" isentropic lift later today like whats happening in DFW right now.

Probably virga but seeing returns on radar up around Waco.

I’d love a snow band off Lake Conroe

Looks like some returns just north of Conroe already

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:47 am I’d love a snow band off Lake Conroe

I won't hope for a Lake Bryan miracle...

I'm not suprised by how bad the forecast temps are busting

Texashawk wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:51 am Looks like some returns just north of Conroe already

I see that - around Willis.

Once the wind shifts - who knows? lol

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:53 am I'm not suprised by how bad the forecast temps are busting

HRRR is your friend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2216&fh=17

don wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:34 am There was a lake effect snow band off of Lake Conroe that extended down into the Houston area with last years February storm.The snow was light though so i don't think most people even noticed it was associated with the lake.It was snowing with the sun out at the same time like a localized pop up shower.It will be interesting if we see if we get any "surprise" isentropic lift later today like whats happening in DFW right now.

I remember that. Sometimes we had something similar in Lubbock. Depending on the wind speed and direction, you would have small areas of lift along the escarpment and canyons, and sometimes the city & TTU campus would sit in a little sweet spot. Spent many mornings walking to class with howling winds and small convective snow showers falling from little cumulus-looking like clouds, while the sun was out.

I would not be surprised to see some localized lake effect snow downwind the lakes. The wind will be howling.

We are ready. Somehow we pulled it off but everything is covered and wrapped. Bring it. It will feel like Christmas!

The front has arrived at Texas A&M. The cold penetration has been significantly more westward than predicted. It should reach us on the east side in a minute. It's moving through Austin.

FROPA passage. We reached a high of 50°. We'll be in the 20s in a couple of hours.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:55 am

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:53 am I'm not suprised by how bad the forecast temps are busting

HRRR is your friend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2216&fh=17

Notice the temps are colder in southern Kentucky into Tennessee than it is Northern Oklahoma. While the cold air is spilling down because it's so cold and dense, the main thrust is to the SE.

Legit Snow reports (more than flurries) in the DFW area. Some accumulation.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:05 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:55 am

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:53 am I'm not suprised by how bad the forecast temps are busting

HRRR is your friend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2216&fh=17

Notice the temps are colder in southern Kentucky into Tennessee than it is Northern Oklahoma. While the cold air is spilling down because it's so cold and dense, the main thrust is to the SE.

????

It's 2°F in OKC. 46°F in Lexington currently. If your argument is that even HRRR is blowing it, agreed. By tomorrow, there should be cold air moving to the east.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:05 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:55 am

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:53 am I'm not suprised by how bad the forecast temps are busting

HRRR is your friend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2216&fh=17

Notice the temps are colder in southern Kentucky into Tennessee than it is Northern Oklahoma. While the cold air is spilling down because it's so cold and dense, the main thrust is to the SE.

Yeah I think the main area of cold will slide off more towards Missouri and into Tennessee and down into Alabama/Georgia than shoot directly south toward us. But it’ll still be ridiculously cold here.

At least that’s what the CPC was forecasting anyway.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:18 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:05 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:55 am
HRRR is your friend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2216&fh=17

Notice the temps are colder in southern Kentucky into Tennessee than it is Northern Oklahoma. While the cold air is spilling down because it's so cold and dense, the main thrust is to the SE.

Yeah I think the main area of cold will slide off more towards Missouri and into Tennessee and down into Alabama/Georgia than shoot directly south toward us. But it’ll still be ridiculously cold here.

At least that’s what the CPC was forecasting anyway.

It's shooting towards us now because of the high density of the air. The cold air will shift eastward tomorrow, only after we're in the teens. Western Nebraska is colder than Iowa right now.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:21 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:18 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:05 pm

Notice the temps are colder in southern Kentucky into Tennessee than it is Northern Oklahoma. While the cold air is spilling down because it's so cold and dense, the main thrust is to the SE.

Yeah I think the main area of cold will slide off more towards Missouri and into Tennessee and down into Alabama/Georgia than shoot directly south toward us. But it’ll still be ridiculously cold here.

At least that’s what the CPC was forecasting anyway.

It's shooting towards us now because of the high density of the air. The cold air will shift eastward tomorrow, only after we're in the teens. Western Nebraska is colder than Iowa right now.

Well with the way the CPC had their temperature outlook, it looked like they had the worst of it going more ESE/SE than straight S. That’s all I’m saying lol

Yeah - Y'all need to look at the same latitude. The FL panhandle never makes it below 18°F in a day or two. We'll be 13°F tonight.

Dallas will be in single digits, Macon about 12°F on the CMC.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:25 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:21 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:18 pm

Yeah I think the main area of cold will slide off more towards Missouri and into Tennessee and down into Alabama/Georgia than shoot directly south toward us. But it’ll still be ridiculously cold here.

At least that’s what the CPC was forecasting anyway.

It's shooting towards us now because of the high density of the air. The cold air will shift eastward tomorrow, only after we're in the teens. Western Nebraska is colder than Iowa right now.

Well with the way the CPC had their temperature outlook, it looked like they had the worst of it going more ESE/SE than straight S. That’s all I’m saying lol

That's not quantifiably true, even in the models. Think equal latitude.