Wx Infinity Forums

Im gonna bet 12z Euro stick with border landfall.

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:09 pm

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:09 pm 12z ECMWF a tad south of 00z through 24 hour

Ridge appears to be a bit stronger as well. Though, could have to do with modeled time.

Mid level ridging stronger for sure through 48 hours. Looks like landfall between Galveston and the border on this run.

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:59 pm

sau27 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:58 pm And the 12z Euro is running.

Good initialization so we should get a good run here.

Agreed. Pretty darn close to the center fixes from previous recons and as y'all have mentioned from a satellite perspective. That position at 48hr is an eyebrow raiser. 72 could make things go bonkers.

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:13 pm

AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:10 pm Would really like wxman 57 opinion on Laura right about now.

Unfortunately, idk if wxman57 really visits this board much anymore. He does drop by on storm2k on occasion but I don't think he has really given many thoughts about Laura lately.

yea i saw him make a post in 2k about Marco being no longer a TS and no issue and that he was going back to watch Laura which is a Threat.

I thought there was going to be an updatet at 1pm?

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:15 pm

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:09 pm

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:09 pm 12z ECMWF a tad south of 00z through 24 hour

Ridge appears to be a bit stronger as well. Though, could have to do with modeled time.

Mid level ridging stronger for sure through 48 hours. Looks like landfall between Galveston and the border on this run.

I ASSSUME? GIV & other data is all input as well, even though it’s a Euro product?

AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:17 pm

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:13 pm

AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:10 pm Would really like wxman 57 opinion on Laura right about now.

Unfortunately, idk if wxman57 really visits this board much anymore. He does drop by on storm2k on occasion but I don't think he has really given many thoughts about Laura lately.

yea i saw him make a post in 2k about Marco being no longer a TS and no issue and that he was going back to watch Laura which is a Threat.

Usually, if he makes any forecasts it is usually relayed over here too so just keep an eye out.

57 will only give you a model driven forecast. Old fashioned forecasting is still out there scattered about. Neil Frank and Harold Taft were/are some greats.

Sooooo is this enough for a shift in the cone?

Euro goes border landfall

Looks like landfall just east of the border. Upper-level ridging retreats and Laura takes a northward projection after 60 hours. While it's too early to say for sure the trend does look favorable for the Houston metro that we may be just far enough west.

Euro with Laura on the TX/LA border. Might this be a trend in consensus?

Looks like a TX/LA border landfall on the 12z Euro. Maybe just east of the border.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:20 pm Sooooo is this enough for a shift in the cone?

Not much change in the cone. I will be interested to see the EPS though

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:13 pm

AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:10 pm Would really like wxman 57 opinion on Laura right about now.

Unfortunately, idk if wxman57 really visits this board much anymore. He does drop by on storm2k on occasion but I don't think he has really given many thoughts about Laura lately.

He hasn't been around much. He's been pretty coy about offering-up any hints about Laura other than 'Marco was a decoy we need to watch Laura instead.'

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:22 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:20 pm Sooooo is this enough for a shift in the cone?

Not much change in the cone. I will be interested to see the EPS though

Willing to bet the whole “quicker, deeper cyclone trends west” look remains. We may have at least some question until tomorrow evening. The shape of our coastline is unfortunate… degree or two of change down there can mean big difference up here.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:22 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:20 pm Sooooo is this enough for a shift in the cone?

Not much change in the cone. I will be interested to see the EPS though

Very close to Beaumont. I'll be interested in the Ensembles.

I still think the 12z suite will end-up being an east outlier, and we'll start to see another shift back to the west.

Like a Rita type path

Yep. Solidifies the 10 am forecast. No reason to make any adjustments, for now.

Plenty of extra obs and data should be going in both the 18z and 0z runs. If there is a shift coming those runs should pick up on it.

NHC via Twitter: Watches Warnings for Marco have been discontinued however new Watches Warnings for TS Laura likely this afternoon.