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There has been modeling of the system possibly splitting it's energy and rounding the ridge moving west over Florida once off the east coast. Very weak though. Just like Ivan did in 2004.

Personally I gonna rest easy after that data from the Gulfstream finds its way to the model.

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:11 pm Personally I gonna rest easy after that data from the Gulfstream finds its way to the model.

there is simply no way that the forecast/models can change THAT much at this time.

Is it me or am I reaching….that trough in the mid-west is not digging southeast it is now running east northeast and the ridge is seemingly holding much farther west than expected…am I looking at this wrong. Wondering if the west biased models are seeing something?

sambucol wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:33 am In light of the communications problems and data assimilation problems, is there a possibility the storm track could trend west toward Texas? I'm guessing the latest data from recon has not been able to be transferred in order for models to reflect that data. Thank you.

there is essentially zero chance Ida comes here.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:15 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:11 pm Personally I gonna rest easy after that data from the Gulfstream finds its way to the model.

there is simply no way that the forecast/models can change THAT much at this time.

Those two words (no way) and tropical systems don’t work well together because all it takes is a stronger ridge and it’s happened before.

12z CMC sniffing more tropical trouble in the gulf about 6-7 days from now

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:31 pm 12z CMC sniffing more tropical trouble in the gulf about 6-7 days from now

May want to move that over into the September thread to avoid any crossover.

Oof didn’t realize september thread started haha

Officially Cat 1 now. 30 kt intensification in 8 hours. Talk about a blowup.

Cajun Country is the target. We'll feel the heat. Literally.

I know in the past when storms have gone off to the east to mess with the Mississippi River flow, we have had blue water in Galveston Bay. Is this looking like a possibility this time?

Not trying to be insensitive to our Cajun cousins, but looking for lemonade out of lemons here.

Sure looks like center os rolling way more west than north

Not sure how its gonna hit next plotted point

Goodness Gracious. The 12Z European....

Next point where it crosses Cuba looks to be 22.5 N 83.5 W but the movement is looking west of that point…am I just misinterpreting the satellite run?

Able to see a nice little meso-circulation just east of Corpus on HGX and CRP radars. Am I correct in thinking this is the low that is instigating what little shear Ida is experiencing, and the weakness between its eastern periphery and the western portion of the ridge is where Ida will track?

I tend to stay out of the tropical discussions as its not my forte.

ETA: Thinking about this more, perhaps this a mesoscale feature of the broader upper-level low, which is swinging disturbances east -> west.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:30 pm I know in the past when storms have gone off to the east to mess with the Mississippi River flow, we have had blue water in Galveston Bay. Is this looking like a possibility this time?

Not trying to be insensitive to our Cajun cousins, but looking for lemonade out of lemons here.

Our brown surf at the beach is just that - brown surf due to overturning the very fine clay-like sediment our beaches are made of. Beaches in Florida are white due to big granules of white silica sand. It mostly falls to the bottom and leaves the water blue. Our fine silty, brown-colored sand gets easily suspended in the water and therefore we get brown surf.

It’s not sediment from the Mississippi river. Most of that gets discharged south and southeast of the Delta, deep into the gulf. If you go a couple of hundred yards offshore from Galveston and get away from the turbidity of the surf, the gulf water is clear blue.

The “blue surf” phenomenon occurs in Galveston when winds are allowed to remain still for an extended period of time. The water goes calm and all those suspended particles fall and it clears the water.

I stopped going to galveston long ago, would be nice to always have clear water instead of the normal muddy looking sewage water lol

No offense to the native Texans but I don’t get in the water here and rarely go to the beach here. I’m spoiled growing up in Tampa and having a 2nd home down in Indian Rocks. Now that’s a real beach 🏖 (shhh but don’t tell anyone). When the kids are done with school we are outta here.