Re: January Weather Discussion. Cold Blast Coming?
Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:23 pm
00Z NAM suggests some qpf across the area with the front. New Braunfels radar tends to agree...
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srainhoutx wrote:00Z NAM suggests some qpf across the area with the front. New Braunfels radar tends to agree...
Yep...Andrew wrote:srainhoutx wrote:00Z NAM suggests some qpf across the area with the front. New Braunfels radar tends to agree...
That would be quite something but I think it would only be rain.
Mr. Weather wrote:Whats qpf
srainhoutx wrote:Mr. Weather wrote:Whats qpf
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (abbreviated QPF) is the expected amount of melted precipitation accumulated over a specified time period over a specified area.[1] A QPF will be created when precipitation amounts reaching a minimum threshold are expected during the forecast's valid period. Valid periods of precipitation forecasts are normally synoptic hours such as 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 GMT. Terrain is considered in QPFs by use of topography or based upon climatological precipitation patterns from observations with fine detail. Starting in the mid-to-late 1990s, QPFs were used within hydrologic forecast models to simulate impact to rivers throughout the United States. Forecast models show significant sensitivity to humidity levels within the planetary boundary layer, or in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, which decreases with height.[2] QPF can be generated on a quantitative, forecasting amounts, or a qualitative, forecasting the probability of a specific amount, basis.[3] Radar imagery forecasting techniques show higher skill than model forecasts within 6 to 7 hours of the time of the radar image. The forecasts can be verified through use of rain gauge measurements, weather radar estimates, or a combination of both. Various skill scores can be determined to measure the value of the rainfall forecast.
I think it could be a temporary reprieve. Than again, some La Ninas are not always dry. The Winter of 1988-89 was a strong La Nina like right now. By Spring of 1989, it was a dying La Nina. It had heavy rain in the winter, like in January of 1989. Also, there were severe weather events in late March and May and a major flood from heavy rains on May 17-18.txsnowmaker wrote:Quick question about the bigger picture. Does the shift to cooler and wetter weather indicate that the La Nina period may be nearing its end, or is this likely just a temporary reprieve until mid-year or so, when many have forecasted the pattern to shift?
Thanks Ptarmigan!Ptarmigan wrote:I think it could be a temporary reprieve. Than again, some La Ninas are not always dry. The Winter of 1988-89 was a strong La Nina like right now. By Spring of 1989, it was a dying La Nina. It had heavy rain in the winter, like in January of 1989. Also, there were severe weather events in late March and May and a major flood from heavy rains on May 17-18.txsnowmaker wrote:Quick question about the bigger picture. Does the shift to cooler and wetter weather indicate that the La Nina period may be nearing its end, or is this likely just a temporary reprieve until mid-year or so, when many have forecasted the pattern to shift?
However, the La Nina is forecasted to be out by this summer. I am sure a Pro-Met could chime in.
Your welcome! It is my opinion.txsnowmaker wrote:
Thanks Ptarmigan!
Mr. T wrote:0z GFS MOS shows a low at IAH of 22 degrees tommorow night and 25 degrees the next night.
Also has a rare 32 degrees on Galveston Island.
txsnowmaker wrote:Thanks Ptarmigan!Ptarmigan wrote:I think it could be a temporary reprieve. Than again, some La Ninas are not always dry. The Winter of 1988-89 was a strong La Nina like right now. By Spring of 1989, it was a dying La Nina. It had heavy rain in the winter, like in January of 1989. Also, there were severe weather events in late March and May and a major flood from heavy rains on May 17-18.txsnowmaker wrote:Quick question about the bigger picture. Does the shift to cooler and wetter weather indicate that the La Nina period may be nearing its end, or is this likely just a temporary reprieve until mid-year or so, when many have forecasted the pattern to shift?
However, the La Nina is forecasted to be out by this summer. I am sure a Pro-Met could chime in.
A 10 degree difference between IAH and Galveston? That seems unusually large.Mr. T wrote:0z GFS MOS shows a low at IAH of 22 degrees tommorow night and 25 degrees the next night.
Also has a rare 32 degrees on Galveston Island.
That good CAA is coming tonight.Paul wrote:Mr. T wrote:0z GFS MOS shows a low at IAH of 22 degrees tommorow night and 25 degrees the next night.
Also has a rare 32 degrees on Galveston Island.
need some good CAA for that to happen....I leaning more to mid to upper 20's IAH....30-32 Houston Metro....33-34 Galveston....JMO of course......
During nights with radiatonal cooling, Galveston can be as much as 15 degrees warmer than inland obs... It's not unusual.ronyan wrote:A 10 degree difference between IAH and Galveston? That seems unusually large.Mr. T wrote:0z GFS MOS shows a low at IAH of 22 degrees tommorow night and 25 degrees the next night.
Also has a rare 32 degrees on Galveston Island.
...especially between IAH (heat island with planes) and well, anywhere else around this area that has no urban heat island effect. There's usually a big difference between Conroe and IAH too.Mr. T wrote:During nights with radiatonal cooling, Galveston can be as much as 15 degrees warmer than inland obs... It's not unusual.ronyan wrote:A 10 degree difference between IAH and Galveston? That seems unusually large.Mr. T wrote:0z GFS MOS shows a low at IAH of 22 degrees tommorow night and 25 degrees the next night.
Also has a rare 32 degrees on Galveston Island.