Everything has to be just right for wintry precipitation.jeff wrote:Have done a fairly extensive review of cross sections/forecast soundings this evening. General lack of QPF in the FRI PM/SAT AM looks to prevent much freezing rain threat for HOU...maybe and that is a big maybe for CLL and UTS could see some ZR. Td's are very low and soundings show slow saturation of the "very" shallow cold layer not so much by decreasing the air temperature but by increasing te dewpoints. Temperatures are very warm from about 2000 ft to nearly 8000 ft above the surface pushing 38-45 degrees so anything that does make it to the ground will be "warm". Temperatures still look marginal across the region with maybe 30-32 from CLL to UTS and 33-35 Columbus to IAH to Liberty.
Main QPF is Sat PM/SUN and should see shallow arctic dome eroded from top down as heavier rains bring warmer air down.
WPC freezing rain probablity graphics appear "aggressive" for much of SE TX Saturday PM.
I suspect things could change some int he next 24 hours, but the trends of less QPF during the critical temperature period Friday PM/Sat AM have really pulled back the ZR threat. Should QPF increase then better evaporative effects could help drive surface temperatures a degree or two colder...but remember heavier QPF would also help drag down warmer air aloft.
January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month
chilly, for certain, but not as bad as I feared, KDWH dropped into freezing temps between 3 & 4 AM, colder to our east, in Louisiana
a long discussion this AM: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0
00
FXUS64 KHGX 081048
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
448 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING ... WITH 4 AM TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS RANGING FROM NEAR 23 OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WERE HELPING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /4 AM WIND CHILL AT COLLEGE STATION WAS 14/. AS THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT ... TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SEEING HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ... LOWERED WIND SPEEDS WILL MITIGATE AGAINST COLDER WIND CHILLS AND HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY KIND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND YESTERDAY/S FRONT STRETCHED FROM KENTUCKY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WAS MAKING DECENT PROGRESS PUSHING EASTWARD ... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY HAVING MADE A RETURN TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK TODAY ... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THIS DISTURBANCE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ... FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE. THIS ... COUPLED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DURING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY ... WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO MENTION SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SECOND INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE ... ALLOWING THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO CLEVELAND LINE FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /WITH THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY UNSATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ... THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING A WARM NOSE AROUND 3-4 DEGREES ... AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ... FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MATERIALIZE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THIS COLD SNAP./ RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ... AND ANY ASSOCIATED ICE TOTALS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE IMPACTS FRIDAY MORNING ... WITH A FEW SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE ON MORNING COMMUTES FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AGAIN WILL WARM VERY LITTLE COURTESY CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ... BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES. BY FRIDAY EVENING ... THE BEST FORCING FROM THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CENTER PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 PROVIDING A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA REACHES FAR WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ... IT WILL HELP A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND LIFT NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
A NOTE ABOUT SATURDAY/S RAIN POTENTIAL ... MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIALED BACK A BIT IN TERMS OF RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THEY HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE NAM/GFS AND IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ONSET SATURDAY MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD .. .BUT THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO ACTUALLY OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BOTH NAM BUFR AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED POCKET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION. ADDITIONALLY ... 290 AND 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OCCURRING /WHICH WOULD ALSO INHIBIT RAIN CHANCES/. THE AREAS OF REAL CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE THE COLDEST / AND CONSEQUENTLY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL/ARE THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. WHERE THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY TRACKS HOWEVER WILL HAVE A HUGE INFLUENCE ON WHICH AREAS SEE RAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS ... HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT MENTIONABLE LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY ... AND SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION WAS TO INCLUDE FAR WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER ... NOT ALL AREAS WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION IS INCLUDED WILL SEE FREEZING RAIN.
WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTING TOWARDS THE SABINE PASS ON SUNDAY ... RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES HANG AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ... WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING INDICATIONS OF THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS MID-WEEK.
HUFFMAN
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD SE TODAY AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY AFTN. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE AFTN. SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW GALE FORCE...SO WILL CANCEL THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACE IT WITH AN SCA. WILL ALSO REPLACE THE SCA OVER THE BAYS WITH A CAUTION STATEMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING AND MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND INCREASING E-NE WINDS ... INCREASING TIDE LEVELS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 42 32 38 30 39 / 10 30 40 20 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 42 34 39 34 40 / 10 30 40 40 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 40 43 39 45 / 10 30 50 50 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZOS... BURLESON... GRIMES... HOUSTON... LIBERTY... MADISON... MONTGOMERY... POLK... SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY... WALKER... WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
a long discussion this AM: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0
00
FXUS64 KHGX 081048
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
448 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING ... WITH 4 AM TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS RANGING FROM NEAR 23 OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WERE HELPING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /4 AM WIND CHILL AT COLLEGE STATION WAS 14/. AS THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT ... TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SEEING HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ... LOWERED WIND SPEEDS WILL MITIGATE AGAINST COLDER WIND CHILLS AND HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY KIND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND YESTERDAY/S FRONT STRETCHED FROM KENTUCKY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WAS MAKING DECENT PROGRESS PUSHING EASTWARD ... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY HAVING MADE A RETURN TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK TODAY ... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THIS DISTURBANCE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ... FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE. THIS ... COUPLED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DURING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY ... WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO MENTION SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SECOND INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE ... ALLOWING THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO CLEVELAND LINE FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /WITH THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY UNSATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ... THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING A WARM NOSE AROUND 3-4 DEGREES ... AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ... FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MATERIALIZE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THIS COLD SNAP./ RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ... AND ANY ASSOCIATED ICE TOTALS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE IMPACTS FRIDAY MORNING ... WITH A FEW SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE ON MORNING COMMUTES FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AGAIN WILL WARM VERY LITTLE COURTESY CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ... BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES. BY FRIDAY EVENING ... THE BEST FORCING FROM THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CENTER PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 PROVIDING A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA REACHES FAR WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ... IT WILL HELP A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND LIFT NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
A NOTE ABOUT SATURDAY/S RAIN POTENTIAL ... MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIALED BACK A BIT IN TERMS OF RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THEY HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE NAM/GFS AND IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ONSET SATURDAY MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD .. .BUT THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO ACTUALLY OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BOTH NAM BUFR AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED POCKET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION. ADDITIONALLY ... 290 AND 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OCCURRING /WHICH WOULD ALSO INHIBIT RAIN CHANCES/. THE AREAS OF REAL CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE THE COLDEST / AND CONSEQUENTLY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL/ARE THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. WHERE THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY TRACKS HOWEVER WILL HAVE A HUGE INFLUENCE ON WHICH AREAS SEE RAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS ... HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT MENTIONABLE LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY ... AND SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION WAS TO INCLUDE FAR WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER ... NOT ALL AREAS WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION IS INCLUDED WILL SEE FREEZING RAIN.
WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTING TOWARDS THE SABINE PASS ON SUNDAY ... RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES HANG AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ... WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING INDICATIONS OF THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS MID-WEEK.
HUFFMAN
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD SE TODAY AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY AFTN. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE AFTN. SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW GALE FORCE...SO WILL CANCEL THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACE IT WITH AN SCA. WILL ALSO REPLACE THE SCA OVER THE BAYS WITH A CAUTION STATEMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING AND MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND INCREASING E-NE WINDS ... INCREASING TIDE LEVELS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 42 32 38 30 39 / 10 30 40 20 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 42 34 39 34 40 / 10 30 40 40 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 40 43 39 45 / 10 30 50 50 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZOS... BURLESON... GRIMES... HOUSTON... LIBERTY... MADISON... MONTGOMERY... POLK... SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY... WALKER... WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2509
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
A cold morning across SE TX with mid to upper 20s N of Houston metro. Temps in the low 30s across Houston metro and low to mid 30s to the coast. The winds helped keep the temps a few degrees warmer. Rain chances enter the forecast tonight and will remain through Monday with Saturday night and Sunday having the highest rain chances at this point. Freezing rain threat remain well N and W of Houston metro. Stay warm out there today.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
29F right now here in NW Harris County. The only real change I can see from over night is the freezing rain chances were introduced a bit further to the SW near and N of Corpus Christi. Both NWS CRP and HGX issued Special Weather Statements regarding two chances of wintry weather precipitation wise. One is with the second Arctic front tomorrow and the next chance would be Saturday night. Here are the morning discussions from the Weather Prediction Center and the graphics. Jeff sent out an briefing last night stating the he believed the graphics were "overdone", so be advised a lot of caution is being given before biting off on a solution that may bring wintry mischief across our Region including the Hill Country.
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EST THU JAN 08 2015
VALID 12Z THU JAN 08 2015 - 12Z SUN JAN 11 2015
DAYS 1 THROUGH 3..
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES ASHORE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAYS 2 AND 3. THE SHORT WAVES
ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO BACK...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHALLOW COLD AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY RAISING
THE SPECTER OF FREEZING RAIN STRETCHING FROM WEST TX INTO OK AND
AR...ESPECIALLY ON DAY 3. FOR THE MOST PART...THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF BLEND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY...SO
THE THERMAL FIELDS ARE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MODELS. THE QPF PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT WPC QPF.
DAY 2...
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS FEEDING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE (ON THE I290 ISENTROPIC SURFACE)
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN.
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WARM NOSE
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 750 MB...WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
ABOUT 3 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS
GENERALLY WEAK...SO ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.10
INCHES. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TX...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
ARE A BIT MORE ABUNDANT...SO A LARGER AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.10 INCHES
OF ICE IS EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE KMRF
REGION...WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE COLUMN ISOTHERMAL NEAR
THE 0 CELSIUS ISOTHERM (MAINLY BETWEEN 10/12Z AND 10/18Z). THIS
COULD SUPPORT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE THE COLUMN
CAN NO LONGER SUPPORT SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION... RESULTING IN
FREEZING RAIN.
DAY 3...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TX ON DAY
3 INCREASES LIFT OVER EASTERN TX...SOUTHEAST OK AND AR. AN
INVERTED TROUGH POINTS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO THIS REGION AS
WELL...ON STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION CENTERED ON THE I290
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EVIDENCED BY
THE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE SEEN ON SOUNDINGS ACROSS EAST TX...WHERE
A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 6 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS OCCURS BETWEEN 850
AND 800 MB. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TOO FAST WITH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...A LARGE AREA OF 0.01 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE WAS STRETCHED
FROM SOUTH TX (NORTHWEST OF KIAH AND KCRP) INTO SOUTHEAST OK
AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. LOCAL 0.10 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THAT CORRIDOR.
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EST THU JAN 08 2015
VALID 12Z THU JAN 08 2015 - 12Z SUN JAN 11 2015
DAYS 1 THROUGH 3..
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES ASHORE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAYS 2 AND 3. THE SHORT WAVES
ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO BACK...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHALLOW COLD AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY RAISING
THE SPECTER OF FREEZING RAIN STRETCHING FROM WEST TX INTO OK AND
AR...ESPECIALLY ON DAY 3. FOR THE MOST PART...THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF BLEND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY...SO
THE THERMAL FIELDS ARE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MODELS. THE QPF PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT WPC QPF.
DAY 2...
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS FEEDING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE (ON THE I290 ISENTROPIC SURFACE)
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN.
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WARM NOSE
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 750 MB...WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
ABOUT 3 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS
GENERALLY WEAK...SO ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.10
INCHES. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TX...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
ARE A BIT MORE ABUNDANT...SO A LARGER AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.10 INCHES
OF ICE IS EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE KMRF
REGION...WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE COLUMN ISOTHERMAL NEAR
THE 0 CELSIUS ISOTHERM (MAINLY BETWEEN 10/12Z AND 10/18Z). THIS
COULD SUPPORT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE THE COLUMN
CAN NO LONGER SUPPORT SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION... RESULTING IN
FREEZING RAIN.
DAY 3...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TX ON DAY
3 INCREASES LIFT OVER EASTERN TX...SOUTHEAST OK AND AR. AN
INVERTED TROUGH POINTS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO THIS REGION AS
WELL...ON STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION CENTERED ON THE I290
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EVIDENCED BY
THE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE SEEN ON SOUNDINGS ACROSS EAST TX...WHERE
A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 6 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS OCCURS BETWEEN 850
AND 800 MB. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TOO FAST WITH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...A LARGE AREA OF 0.01 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE WAS STRETCHED
FROM SOUTH TX (NORTHWEST OF KIAH AND KCRP) INTO SOUTHEAST OK
AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. LOCAL 0.10 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THAT CORRIDOR.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
tx_kingwood32
- Posts: 19
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Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 600 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-082130- HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS- WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER- HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA- GALVESTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON... MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON... CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE... COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS... CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS... EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD... PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL... HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON... PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG... EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN... ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD... GALVESTON 600 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015 ...WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... THE APPROACH OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL INCREASE AREA RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AT A TIME WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO LIVINGSTON LINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EDNA TO COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL TO LIVINGSTON LINE. MOST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE WARMER PARTS OF THE DAY /WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING/...SO MAIN IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SOUTHEAST TEXAS RESIDENTS AND THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR WHO HAVE TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION BY FOLLOWING LOCAL MEDIA...LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HGX ...OR BY FOLLOWING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. $$
So does this mean it's going to happen or is it a possibility?
So does this mean it's going to happen or is it a possibility?
So far 25 here in the Beaumont area this Thurs morning. NWS LCH still forecasting a 40% sleet/mix for our area Friday, Friday night and Saturday. We shall see...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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srainhoutx
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Morning briefing from Jeff:
Potential for freezing rain tonight/Friday morning and Friday night/Saturday morning far north and west counties…this does not include Harris County or metro Houston.
Discussion:
About as complicated and uncertain of a forecast as one will have in SE TX over the next 72 hours with cold air and moisture to combine to produce bouts of precipitation over the region. Will start first with the ongoing freeze over the region. 600am temperatures ranged from 24 at College Station and Huntsville to 30 at IAH, 28 at Wharton, and 31 at Victoria. Core or surface arctic high is centered from NE TX into the OH valley with weak cold air advection still in progress…expect another degree or two of temperature fall this morning. Really not reaching that hard freeze criteria in the warning area...and it is doubtful that will happen at this point. CLL did have a 500am wind chill of 14 which is 1 degree off the wind chill advisory criteria for this region.
Very slow warm up today to near 40 with increasing mid and high level clouds associated with the approach of an upper air disturbance from the southwest….and hence begins the complicated forecast portion.
Tonight/Friday morning:
Moisture will increase late today as a brief period of southerly winds return late this afternoon ahead of another surge of cold arctic air currently entering the US near Montana. This secondary arctic front will cross the area late tonight and early Friday at the same time an upper level disturbance crosses the area. Temperatures will fall back below freezing tonight along and north of a line from Columbus to Livingston with above freezing temperature south of that line. Combination of frontal lift with the upper air disturbance should produce very light precipitation across the region late tonight and Friday morning. Where temperatures are below freezing this will fall as freezing drizzle and ice pellets. QPF values are only in the .01 to .10 range where the surface temperatures are below freezing (north of the Columbus to Livingston line). Think most of this will be freezing drizzle, but soundings showing varying depth of surface cold dome which could introduce a little more sleet (IP). Best estimates at the moment are for minor icing impacts on elevated surfaces early Friday morning where any precipitation reaches the ground.
Friday night/Saturday morning:
Main Baja storm system will begin to move toward the state late Friday and into Saturday. Models are in some agreement that light precipitation on Friday will move southward with a dry period for most of Friday night into Saturday morning when once again surface temperatures become critical. Surface freezing line Saturday morning digs southward west of Houston, but does not push much southward over the central or eastern parts of the region. Freezing line Saturday morning will run roughly from Edna to Columbus to College Station to Livingston. Precipitation will start to break out from SW to NE mid morning and spread across the region during the day. Forecast profiles show strong warm air advection above the shallow arctic dome suggesting the chances for sleet greatly decline in favor of freezing rain where surface temperatures are below freezing. Main question is does any precipitation fall when surface temperatures are below freezing…at this point it looks very marginal as the onset of QPF is midday into the afternoon on Saturday. Low level dry air mass once again has to be overcome and Baja storm system are notorious for being slower moving than guidance…or their rainfall is usually slower to arrive than expected. Too much uncertainty to both on surface temperatures and QPF to suggest any ice amounts for those western and northern counties Saturday morning. Could be a big mess across central TX into SW TX where freezing temperatures and greater QPF suggest much more ice potential.
Saturday night/Sunday morning:
Will likely see widespread rainfall during this period starting Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday. Temperatures should slowly warm through the period, but will still have to watch Sunday morning up north and out west for any sub freezing temperatures to once again introduce freezing rain. WPC freezing rain probabilities for SE TX are greatest Saturday night/Sunday morning and include a bigger chunk of the area. Still think this is overdone and too aggressive given the amount of warm advection expected above the surface…warm rain drops falling into cold air should help warm the low level air mass slowly. Only potential issue I see with that is that the heavier rainfall rates may/could result in more low level evaporative cooling…so it will be a battle Saturday evening/night between these two processes….will lean toward the warm rain drops overwhelming in evaporative effects.
Point to be made for all this is that this is a marginal winter weather event for the northern and western counties of SE TX for each overnight period tonight-Saturday night. The difference in surface temperatures of 1-2 degrees will determine all rain versus freezing rain and ice. Surface air temperatures are very marginal and QPF is not really lining up with the critical cold periods which inserts tremendous uncertainty into the forecast. Best estimation at this point is that any freezing rain/ice will remain northwest of Houston and Harris County through the entire period.
Potential for freezing rain tonight/Friday morning and Friday night/Saturday morning far north and west counties…this does not include Harris County or metro Houston.
Discussion:
About as complicated and uncertain of a forecast as one will have in SE TX over the next 72 hours with cold air and moisture to combine to produce bouts of precipitation over the region. Will start first with the ongoing freeze over the region. 600am temperatures ranged from 24 at College Station and Huntsville to 30 at IAH, 28 at Wharton, and 31 at Victoria. Core or surface arctic high is centered from NE TX into the OH valley with weak cold air advection still in progress…expect another degree or two of temperature fall this morning. Really not reaching that hard freeze criteria in the warning area...and it is doubtful that will happen at this point. CLL did have a 500am wind chill of 14 which is 1 degree off the wind chill advisory criteria for this region.
Very slow warm up today to near 40 with increasing mid and high level clouds associated with the approach of an upper air disturbance from the southwest….and hence begins the complicated forecast portion.
Tonight/Friday morning:
Moisture will increase late today as a brief period of southerly winds return late this afternoon ahead of another surge of cold arctic air currently entering the US near Montana. This secondary arctic front will cross the area late tonight and early Friday at the same time an upper level disturbance crosses the area. Temperatures will fall back below freezing tonight along and north of a line from Columbus to Livingston with above freezing temperature south of that line. Combination of frontal lift with the upper air disturbance should produce very light precipitation across the region late tonight and Friday morning. Where temperatures are below freezing this will fall as freezing drizzle and ice pellets. QPF values are only in the .01 to .10 range where the surface temperatures are below freezing (north of the Columbus to Livingston line). Think most of this will be freezing drizzle, but soundings showing varying depth of surface cold dome which could introduce a little more sleet (IP). Best estimates at the moment are for minor icing impacts on elevated surfaces early Friday morning where any precipitation reaches the ground.
Friday night/Saturday morning:
Main Baja storm system will begin to move toward the state late Friday and into Saturday. Models are in some agreement that light precipitation on Friday will move southward with a dry period for most of Friday night into Saturday morning when once again surface temperatures become critical. Surface freezing line Saturday morning digs southward west of Houston, but does not push much southward over the central or eastern parts of the region. Freezing line Saturday morning will run roughly from Edna to Columbus to College Station to Livingston. Precipitation will start to break out from SW to NE mid morning and spread across the region during the day. Forecast profiles show strong warm air advection above the shallow arctic dome suggesting the chances for sleet greatly decline in favor of freezing rain where surface temperatures are below freezing. Main question is does any precipitation fall when surface temperatures are below freezing…at this point it looks very marginal as the onset of QPF is midday into the afternoon on Saturday. Low level dry air mass once again has to be overcome and Baja storm system are notorious for being slower moving than guidance…or their rainfall is usually slower to arrive than expected. Too much uncertainty to both on surface temperatures and QPF to suggest any ice amounts for those western and northern counties Saturday morning. Could be a big mess across central TX into SW TX where freezing temperatures and greater QPF suggest much more ice potential.
Saturday night/Sunday morning:
Will likely see widespread rainfall during this period starting Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday. Temperatures should slowly warm through the period, but will still have to watch Sunday morning up north and out west for any sub freezing temperatures to once again introduce freezing rain. WPC freezing rain probabilities for SE TX are greatest Saturday night/Sunday morning and include a bigger chunk of the area. Still think this is overdone and too aggressive given the amount of warm advection expected above the surface…warm rain drops falling into cold air should help warm the low level air mass slowly. Only potential issue I see with that is that the heavier rainfall rates may/could result in more low level evaporative cooling…so it will be a battle Saturday evening/night between these two processes….will lean toward the warm rain drops overwhelming in evaporative effects.
Point to be made for all this is that this is a marginal winter weather event for the northern and western counties of SE TX for each overnight period tonight-Saturday night. The difference in surface temperatures of 1-2 degrees will determine all rain versus freezing rain and ice. Surface air temperatures are very marginal and QPF is not really lining up with the critical cold periods which inserts tremendous uncertainty into the forecast. Best estimation at this point is that any freezing rain/ice will remain northwest of Houston and Harris County through the entire period.
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tx_kingwood32
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Soooooooo,when is the next *threat* for winter precip.doesnt look like this one will give us much
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srainhoutx
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Looks like the 12Z NAM initiated properly today with the actual real time surface charts. Yesterday the NAM and GFS were about 8mb too strong with the anticyclone (Arctic High) over the Northern Plains.
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Very light freeze last night here, 31.6F.
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Portastorm
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The 12z NAM may have initialized more accurately today but I call into question it's predicted temp for Austin tomorrow morning at 6 am of being 36. No way that happens. We're sitting 27 right now and that is in the core of downtown with immediately surrounding areas in the mid 20s. We may only hit 36-38 today as a max temp and even with increasing cloud cover we'll most certainly fall below 36 by 6 am tomorrow.
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srainhoutx
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DFW hit 16F this morning at 7:13AM
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redneckweather
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Just a miserable dry cold and then a cold miserable drizzle to follow. Yawn. Come on Spring Time.
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srainhoutx
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Mid/upper clouds approaching from West. In fact I can see the incoming mid level cloud deck off to my West advancing E.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Still freezing here in NW Harris County with a temperature of 32F. Morning Update from HGX...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1043 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING LOWS WERE ABOUT AS EXPECTED WITH HARD FREEZE FROM COLLEGE
STATION OVER TO HUNTSVILLE. AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH CAME UP SHORT
BUT STILL HIT MID/UPPER 20S. TEMPS DROPPED TO JUST BELOW FREEZING
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS HAVE NOT REBOUNDED MUCH THIS MORNING WITH
16Z OBS STILL SHOWING 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH OF HOUSTON AND MID
30S FOR HOUSTON AND COASTAL AREAS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH. CLOUD COVER OFF THE COAST AND TO THE WEST
LOOKS TO BE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA BASED ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OVERALL THINK TEMP TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
ISSUE AN UPDATE THIS MORNING.
WE ARE STILL MULLING OVER NEW FORECAST DATA AND LOOKING AT
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AREAS NORTH OF CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. IT
APPEARS THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL PARAMETERS THAT NEED TO COME
TOGETHER FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT A POTENTIAL NONETHELESS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1043 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING LOWS WERE ABOUT AS EXPECTED WITH HARD FREEZE FROM COLLEGE
STATION OVER TO HUNTSVILLE. AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH CAME UP SHORT
BUT STILL HIT MID/UPPER 20S. TEMPS DROPPED TO JUST BELOW FREEZING
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS HAVE NOT REBOUNDED MUCH THIS MORNING WITH
16Z OBS STILL SHOWING 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH OF HOUSTON AND MID
30S FOR HOUSTON AND COASTAL AREAS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH. CLOUD COVER OFF THE COAST AND TO THE WEST
LOOKS TO BE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA BASED ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OVERALL THINK TEMP TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
ISSUE AN UPDATE THIS MORNING.
WE ARE STILL MULLING OVER NEW FORECAST DATA AND LOOKING AT
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AREAS NORTH OF CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. IT
APPEARS THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL PARAMETERS THAT NEED TO COME
TOGETHER FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT A POTENTIAL NONETHELESS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Heat Miser
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These shallow arctic fronts, I dislike them because they bring exactly this scenario, freezing rain/drizzle, yuck. A snow flake or at least an ice pellet is what I'm looking for.
I hit 28 with the wind, and I didn't cover a thing. Good news is that it appears it did not get quite cold enough to really damage the pgymy date/majesty palms/bird-of-paradise. Just the annuals and tropical bedding plants like the cannas, bananas, ginger, Ti plants, etc. got zapped, but they will come back.
I set out a couple of plastic cups of water - one on a metal table and one on the driveway - to show my boys what happens when water freezes. I expected solid ice - at least in the elevated cup - but both cups were still all liquid this morning.
I set out a couple of plastic cups of water - one on a metal table and one on the driveway - to show my boys what happens when water freezes. I expected solid ice - at least in the elevated cup - but both cups were still all liquid this morning.