January 2022

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 that is false, noaa is beginning to buy into the EPS solution in their 8-14 day outlook as they are favoring below normal temps for most of Texas

[Kingwood36]

I'll believe it when I see it lol..beside I thought winter was canceled already? good times ahead

[Iceresistance]

I'll believe it when I see it lol..beside I thought winter was canceled already? good times ahead

I'm expecting snow this weekend.

[Kingwood36]

I'll believe it when I see it lol..beside I thought winter was canceled already? good times ahead

I'm expecting snow this weekend.

Ya, but you live in Canada..I mean oklahoma lol

[Cpv17]

[Kingwood36]

Will see if it's there tomorrow and Friday..then maybe I'll pay attention..I don't wanna sound like a debbie downer..but I've been burned way to many times to believe anything that far out and so should yall

[jasons2k]

Those maps....they really need to lose the outlines around national and ocean borders. It's just confusing clutter.

We have already passed the coldest minimum climate averages at IAH. They are 43/62 from January 3-8. Will be 43/63 until January 25th. Then it steps up to 44/63 and on the 26th it steps up again to 44/64. Then it's off to the races until summer.

[Stratton20]

Will be interesting to see what the model runs in the days ahead show, I definitely believe old man winter will make a return, we dont really atop getting cold snaps until after mid march so i suspect we will at least see a few arctic blasts between now and then

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro Ensembles are hinting something potentially huge in later this month!

[Iceresistance]

POW Ponder on Weather has posted a video recently.

[walsean1]

Typically what I have seen since living in Texas is that we will get 1 or 2 shot at Wintery precipitation and freezing temperatures normally around late January or Early February. We can’t these scenarios out although I hope we don’t see last years Winter Storm. That was a disaster

[Stratton20]

00z GFS just got interesting for around the 20-21st time frame

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

SKC and light/calm winds across SE Texas early this morning. Some
localized fog about, only take VSBY below at SGR (MVFR) and LBX
(MVFR, TEMPO IFR). Winds increase a bit mid-morning, relatively
variable but more out of the W/SW than anything else. Back to
light/VRB again this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 338 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022/...

.DISCUSSION...

Pleasant conditions prevail to finish off the week, though fans
of cooler weather may not be pleased as high temperatures rise
into the 70s for the next couple of days. However, this warmup
will be short-lived, as a weekend cold front will bring cooler,
more seasonable temps back to Southeast Texas. There will be some
rain chances with the front as well, but the limited time to build
up moisture before the front arrives will limit the rainfall
potential and likely keep any showers pinned more towards the
coast.

A cooler weekend will give way to a warming trend through the
middle of next week, when we`ll be on the lookout for another cold
front moving through the area with another modest cooldown and
chance of showers.


.SHORT TERM [Through Friday]...

The main concerns for the pre-frontal portion of this forecast
will be for temperatures, as well as the potential for fog in the
overnight and early morning hours this morning and
tonight/tomorrow morning. To start, we have a clear sky, light
winds and small dew point depressions, which definitely has one
thinking about fog potential. Several spots, mainly to the
rural coastal plain southwest of the Houston metro, have seen
visibility sporadically dip to 5 miles or less.

The variable nature of these obs and satellite imagery do pretty
clearly confirm that we are not looking at widespread fog
development...at least, not yet. Forecast soundings indicate that
the high RH in the surface layer is pretty much only there - any
vertical mixing at all is likely to disrupt fog. This should (with
the strongest possible emphasis on the key word "should")
mitigate the breadth and severity of fog into the morning hours.

Because the T-Td spreads are already pretty small, we`re probably
pretty close to our starting temps for the day, but we`ve probably
still got a couple more degrees to fall yet before solar heating
overcomes radiational cooling. And once the sun takes over, things
should be on their way up to high temps around 70 degrees this
afternoon with a mostly sunny to sunny sky. Winds should be light
and fairly variable, but more out of the west or southwest than
anything else.

That general lack of clouds also means we`re set for another night
of quality radiational cooling again tonight, and probably another
shot at fog. The warmer daytime temps may help keep the overnight
temps just slightly higher, and the surface flow may nudge
dewpoints just slightly lower...and my forecast here in the grids
actually would suggest a little more limited fog potential tonight
compared to early this morning. The HREF finally seems to be
coming to this conclusion as well, but does still show some fog
signal, mainly in the coastal plain southwest of Houston yet
again. To keep everything in my forecast consistent, I keep fog
out of the weather grids again, but we`re right on the edge and
could easily end up needing to insert it during the day.

Friday should be a little warmer and modestly more humid, as pre-
frontal flow finally becomes onshore during the day and increasing
to more moderate wind speeds after this stretch of light winds.
It`s not likely to be enough of a change to make any sort of
significant difference, but astute folks hanging out in the
outdoors may notice these first signs of some change lurking in
the long term section of the forecast.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

Our main forecast concern in the extended period continues to
surround the approach of a strong surface cold front on Saturday,
and the cold temperatures and strong winds that will develop in its
wake. By the early hours of Saturday morning, the boundary extending
from a deepening surface low over NE TX will arrive at the Brazos
Valley, reaching the Houston metro by sunrise and pushing offshore
by mid to late morning. With a rather limited period of return flow
preceding the frontal passage, moisture availability will be modest
with maximum total PW values reaching around 1.25 in along and south
of the I-10 corridor. Any precipitation that does develop should be
mostly confined to these locations, which should experience
scattered showers as the boundary pushes through. Heavy rainfall is
not a concern.

Behind the departing front, moderate to strong offshore winds will
develop across SE TX with sustained wind speeds potentially reaching
in excess of 25 mph along the coast. Will continue to need to watch
for the potential of a Wind Advisory given the current forecast.
Elsewhere, Expect sustained winds on the order of 15 to 25 mph
through Saturday evening. Robust cold advection behind the front
will result in a significant cooldown across the area through the
end of the weekend. Highs on both Saturday will remain confined to
the 50s/lower 60s, while overnight lows approach freezing across the
northern zones and elsewhere dip into the low/mid 30s. Sunday looks
to be the coldest day of the forecast period, with daytime highs
unlikely to eclipse 55 while overnight lows reach below freezing
across the far northern zones and elsewhere remain in the 30s.

As broad surface high pressure behind the frontal boundary
eventually departs the area, a gradual warmup will begin as we head
into next week with return flow ultimately redeveloping by Tuesday
afternoon. As a result, look for a slight increase in high
temperatures each day with values eventually reaching the low to mid
70s by Wednesday. Our next surface cold front looks to approach the
area on Thursday morning, bringing with it another round of
scattered showers and storms.


.MARINE...

Winds remain light and seas remain low through the day today, with
onshore flow redeveloping by tomorrow afternoon ahead of the
approach of a strong surface cold front on Saturday. The boundary
should clear the coast by mid/late Saturday morning, with scattered
showers accompanying its passage. In the wake of the front, strong
offshore winds will develop resulting in seas building to as high as
8-10 feet offshore and wind speeds reaching in excess of 30 knots.
Frequent gusts to gale force are anticipated through Saturday night.
Winds and seas will begin to diminish on Sunday and will eventually
reach below caution criteria by Monday. The period of strong
offshore winds may result in abnormally low water levels along the
coast, and a Low Water Advisory may be required should this
materialize.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 71 43 74 47 53 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 71 46 74 53 59 / 0 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 69 55 71 57 65 / 0 0 0 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cady

[jasons2k]

Latest from Jeff:

Strong cold front will move across the region this weekend.

Southerly winds today and Friday will lead to a modest warm up over the region with highs in the low to mid 70’s, but very little moisture return. A strong cold front will move down the plains and across TX on Friday night and Saturday. Moisture along the front is limited, so not expecting much rainfall. Strong cold air advection will onset post front early Saturday and temperatures on Saturday will likely remain in the 50’s for much of the day. Gutsy north winds of 15-25mph can be expected on Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.

Cold air mass settles over the region into the weekend with freezing/near freezing temperatures likely both Sunday and Monday mornings north of HWY 105. High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 50’s on Sunday. A slow warm up begins on Monday as the surface high pressure moves east of TX and southerly winds return.

Long Range:
There has been some recent talk of very long range model guidance showing very cold air around the last week of January. Any model guidance out at 14-16 days is mostly speculation and many times causes unwarranted concern. While cold air does appear poised to move into the US toward the end of the month the upper level pattern may favor more of a delivery toward the Great Lakes and NE US instead of down the plains. This has been the overall pattern thus far this winter and favors La Nina winters. Will see what global model guidance says as we get into the 5-7 day range before any level of concern is needed.

Jeff Lindner

[Kingwood36]

So no need for concern. I see it going east as Jeff mentions being it is a la Nina winter after all..it hasn't brought any real cold down the plains at all really

[Cpv17]

So no need for concern. I see it going east as Jeff mentions being it is a la Nina winter after all..it hasn't brought any real cold down the plains at all really

Last year was a La Niña.

[Stratton20]

We cannot just assume the cold will go off to our east, the euro and the eps show this

[Iceresistance]

We cannot just assume the cold will go off to our east, the euro and the eps show this

This is the same Euro model that featured a 1056 MB High 10 days out.

[Cpv17]

This would be mostly for sleet or ice accumulations in southeast TX. It’s not currently looking cold enough aloft for snow at this time but this is for next Friday. Under 200 hours so it’s not complete fantasy land. Just something to watch for now:

[Stratton20]

CPV17 and the GFS has been showing this the past 2 days or so, definitely something worth monitoring, fwiw 5/20 GEFS members now show wintry precip next friday, 5/20 isnt much but every run ive seen another member jump on with this idea