January 2023

[DoctorMu]

Yes, too cold when precip comes may mean too dry.

The trends are in the right direction.

Around the 25th *could* get interesting. We'll see.

[Stratton20]

I like what i see on the 00z Euro, gets very close to showing a winter storm setup over the state with a trough approaching from west texas

[Cpv17]

I like what i see on the 00z Euro, gets very close to showing a winter storm setup over the state with a trough approaching from west texas

There’s a huge difference between the Euro vs GFS. The Euro has a much more favorable setup. The good thing is the ensembles from both of those models agree more with the op Euro. Question will be will enough of that cold air out west make it this way and will the trough dig far enough south.

[don]

Yep the Euro shows frozen precip with that system in the northern counties of SE Texas fwiw. Let's see if it becomes a trend or not.

[don]

The 12z Canadian shows the storm also with snow in the northern counties fwiw.

[Stratton20]

The 12z GEFS is quite a bit different in regards to the operational run and this potential storm system around the 25th, interesting days ahead folks!

[brazoriatx]

Looks to be north of hwy 10*

[DoctorMu]

The 12z Canadian shows the storm also with snow in the northern counties fwiw.

That's consistent with yesterday's Can. model.

FWIW, the Canadian progged best the Feb 2021 winter storm.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro still has the system

[Ptarmigan]

A bit off topic. There is Invest 90L in the North Atlantic.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... WOAT.shtml

Code: Select all

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161502
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern 
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing 
storm-force winds.  Although the cyclone is producing some 
thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air 
mass with nearby frontal boundaries.  The low is expected to move 
northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over 
much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.  
Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a 
subtropical or tropical cyclone.  Nevertheless, the system is 
expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or 
so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings, 
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.  

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for 
this system.  Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
be issued as necessary during the off-season. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Here is a satellite image of 90L.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like wintry weather maybe possible next week. To have snow, it does not have to be freezing cold.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looks like wintry weather maybe possible next week. To have snow, it does not have to be freezing cold.

Yep, with a tri Nina, people have forgotten that extreme anomalous cold is not needed, and often counter productive for ice or snow. February 2021 was a head fake in that regard.

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS has quite a few ensemble members showing a winter storm setup over the state around the 25th or so, definitely different from the OP run

[Cpv17]

18z GEFS has quite a few ensemble members showing a winter storm setup over the state around the 25th or so, definitely different from the OP run

The op was pretty blah except for the monster ridge building over Alaska in the long range.

[Stratton20]

00z ICON fwiw now has the storm as well, snow in central texas

[don]

Yep

[sambucol]

All we need are the right temps in SETX with that moisture to have some winter fun.

[DoctorMu]

All we need are the right temps in SETX with that moisture to have some winter fun.

Trending, trending, trending...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

All we need are the right temps in SETX with that moisture to have some winter fun.

Trending, trending, trending...

I’ll be in those darkest blues the 27th onward

[Cromagnum]

Meanwhile it's late spring for a few days and then it's March this weekend.