That's my backyard. I have to let my dog out on a leash so he doesn't hurt his leg that's 5 weeks out of surgery.GBinGrimes wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 10:47 pm It may take a 1000 year flood to close the uncountable crevices in my pasture. Any measurable rain will disappear straight down, down, down...probably all the way to the aquifer.
But, it first has to rain. It's been a long, long time.
September 2023
This is a good one:
https://www.thefp.com/p/i-overhyped-cli ... -published
As for the weather - still a shot of rain today. I have my sprinklers on.
https://www.thefp.com/p/i-overhyped-cli ... -published
As for the weather - still a shot of rain today. I have my sprinklers on.
Right. Both can be true. Climate change + not managing controlled burns as the native Americans used to.jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:36 am This is a good one:
https://www.thefp.com/p/i-overhyped-cli ... -published
As for the weather - still a shot of rain today. I have my sprinklers on.
As the Crow Nation says in Yellowstone: "live with nature, not against it."
Change is always at the end of each NWS forecast.
Every day, every tomorrow slides further into the future with each consecutive forecast.
105°F yesterday. More of the same today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IsSpAOD6K8
same as it ever was...
Every day, every tomorrow slides further into the future with each consecutive forecast.
105°F yesterday. More of the same today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IsSpAOD6K8
same as it ever was...
Take this with a big grain of salt.But models are showing a shortwave trough moving through the state around the later half of next week.Not getting my hopes up though...
Don’t want to jinx it but the satellite loop looks better today than the previous 3 days of the supposed ‘main event’
And the showers on radar are still building, not completely evaporating already. Maybe this will continue this afternoon for a change.
And the showers on radar are still building, not completely evaporating already. Maybe this will continue this afternoon for a change.
Mid-day update from Jeff Lindner:
Record heat likely Thursday and Friday over the region with highs well into the low and mid 100’s….but changes appear coming this weekend into next week.
Mid and upper level high pressure anchored over the SW US will ridge into central and eastern Texas Thursday and Friday yielding likely record heat over the area. Slight chances for seabreeze activity will lower to less than 20% for Thursday and Friday with subsidence overhead. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s near the coast and low to mid 100’s inland…maybe even upper 100’s north of HWY 105 where grounds are dry and dewpoints will mix out allowing full potential heating of the air mass.
Fire weather concerns will continue into the end of the week with the Damon 20 Fire yesterday in Brazoria County burning 1000 acres. Even with higher humidity values, fire continue to start in the extremely dry vegetation and spread rapidly. Humidity values will lower into Thursday and Friday especially north of I-10 and while winds will remain below Red Flag Warning levels…the critically dry vegetation will compensate for the lower winds.
Weekend:
Mid and upper level ridge back to the west with a trough developing over the eastern US and digging back southwest into Texas. Disturbances riding down the west side of the trough will move across eastern Texas starting Saturday and expected numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop over western Louisiana and eastern Texas Saturday afternoon and move SSW/SW into the area. Given the likely very warm air mass in place Saturday afternoon along with dry sub-cloud layers…gusty winds will be possible with any storms. Similar pattern for Sunday with both disturbances rolling in from the north and seabreeze from the south…with at least 40-60% coverage over the area.
Next Week:
Weak front will enter into the picture early to mid next week and with moisture pooling over the region scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will result. With the mid level ridge remaining well to our west…subsidence that has been with us for much of the summer will be gone and replaced with more favorable dynamics to produce showers and thunderstorms. Will not get too carried away just yet with rainfall totals since the dry is suffering in deep drought and drought is hard to overcome…but the pattern does favor several rounds of thunderstorms early to mid next week with the front to our north and then slowly pushing toward the coast. Will likely need to see how convection plays out each day and this is still 4-5 days away so time for things to trend drier or wetter…but at least there are changes starting Saturday for several days for some much needed rainfall.
TS Lee:
Tropical storm Lee has formed over the Atlantic 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Lee consists of a developing area of deep convection near the center with large curved banding to the west of the center. Overall this is a tropical system poised for significant intensification over the next 3-5 days with near record warm waters and good upper level outflow aloft. Intensity guidance is about as aggressive as ever seen with an Atlantic basin hurricane and makes Lee a category 4/5 in 3-4 days and this seem reasonable given the favorable conditions.
Over the track guidance is in good agreement through 5 days with Lee moving generally WNW and passing to the north of the Leeward Islands. Once Lee reaches the area east of the Bahamas a trough along and to the west of the US east coast will become critically important in how fast and hard the system turns toward the north. There becomes much greater uncertainty beyond 5 days where Lee will be located and how the upper level steering pattern over the western Atlantic and eastern US evolves. It is likely the Lee will become a significantly large hurricane over the southwest and western Atlantic.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Record heat likely Thursday and Friday over the region with highs well into the low and mid 100’s….but changes appear coming this weekend into next week.
Mid and upper level high pressure anchored over the SW US will ridge into central and eastern Texas Thursday and Friday yielding likely record heat over the area. Slight chances for seabreeze activity will lower to less than 20% for Thursday and Friday with subsidence overhead. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s near the coast and low to mid 100’s inland…maybe even upper 100’s north of HWY 105 where grounds are dry and dewpoints will mix out allowing full potential heating of the air mass.
Fire weather concerns will continue into the end of the week with the Damon 20 Fire yesterday in Brazoria County burning 1000 acres. Even with higher humidity values, fire continue to start in the extremely dry vegetation and spread rapidly. Humidity values will lower into Thursday and Friday especially north of I-10 and while winds will remain below Red Flag Warning levels…the critically dry vegetation will compensate for the lower winds.
Weekend:
Mid and upper level ridge back to the west with a trough developing over the eastern US and digging back southwest into Texas. Disturbances riding down the west side of the trough will move across eastern Texas starting Saturday and expected numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop over western Louisiana and eastern Texas Saturday afternoon and move SSW/SW into the area. Given the likely very warm air mass in place Saturday afternoon along with dry sub-cloud layers…gusty winds will be possible with any storms. Similar pattern for Sunday with both disturbances rolling in from the north and seabreeze from the south…with at least 40-60% coverage over the area.
Next Week:
Weak front will enter into the picture early to mid next week and with moisture pooling over the region scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will result. With the mid level ridge remaining well to our west…subsidence that has been with us for much of the summer will be gone and replaced with more favorable dynamics to produce showers and thunderstorms. Will not get too carried away just yet with rainfall totals since the dry is suffering in deep drought and drought is hard to overcome…but the pattern does favor several rounds of thunderstorms early to mid next week with the front to our north and then slowly pushing toward the coast. Will likely need to see how convection plays out each day and this is still 4-5 days away so time for things to trend drier or wetter…but at least there are changes starting Saturday for several days for some much needed rainfall.
TS Lee:
Tropical storm Lee has formed over the Atlantic 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Lee consists of a developing area of deep convection near the center with large curved banding to the west of the center. Overall this is a tropical system poised for significant intensification over the next 3-5 days with near record warm waters and good upper level outflow aloft. Intensity guidance is about as aggressive as ever seen with an Atlantic basin hurricane and makes Lee a category 4/5 in 3-4 days and this seem reasonable given the favorable conditions.
Over the track guidance is in good agreement through 5 days with Lee moving generally WNW and passing to the north of the Leeward Islands. Once Lee reaches the area east of the Bahamas a trough along and to the west of the US east coast will become critically important in how fast and hard the system turns toward the north. There becomes much greater uncertainty beyond 5 days where Lee will be located and how the upper level steering pattern over the western Atlantic and eastern US evolves. It is likely the Lee will become a significantly large hurricane over the southwest and western Atlantic.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
LOL at the futurecasts that are completely wrong as usual. Scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast? Nope. Off to the northeast like every other time.
don wrote: ↑Wed Sep 06, 2023 2:50 pm Take this with a big grain of salt.But models are showing a shortwave trough moving through the state around the later half of next week.Not getting my hopes up though...
Screenshot 2023-09-06 at 14-22-04 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-09-06 at 13-51-22 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-09-06 at 13-51-13 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather(1).png
I have a strong feeling this one will actually verify.
I actually think we will get more accumulation than that.
I've tried to be as hopeful as possible. But to be perfectly honest, I'm losing all faith in these weather forecasters, they all suck. Doesn't matter if it's NWS, ABC13, or "No Hype" Space City Weather, they've all been sucking so hard this summer.
I don't know what is wrong with this state: is I-45 really some magic wall?
That said, tomorrow actually does look surprisingly active compared to today even though it was originally supposed to be one of the two "bone dry" days this week (the other being Friday). There's a much stronger boundary that drifts towards the area, which hopefully can interact with the sea-breeze to enhance storms.
Speaking of sea-breeze, where has it been these past few summers? I remember in the 2000s, forecasters guaranteed sea-breeze storms during afternoon. Now it's been completely ineffective....
Stratton gonna go hide after that Astros beatdown 🧹🧹🧹
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 actually im not, I saw this coming, bullpen has been terrible all season, its pretty predictable when you have absolutely no reliable arms at all lol, i can admit that was an *** kicking of a life time lol we pretty much gave up after the first game
39-10 oofStratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:46 pm Cpv17 actually im not, I saw this coming, bullpen has been terrible all season, its pretty predictable when you have absolutely no reliable arms at all lol, i can admit that was an *** kicking of a life time lol we pretty much gave up after the first game
Yeah, that’s bad.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4616
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 071059
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
The upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest should largely
dominate the weather pattern across the state through the end of the
work week. Weak impulses are still progged to round the peripheral
of this ridge, passing over SE Texas. Ample moisture from steady
onshore flow should keep PWATs around 1.6-1.9 inches. Factor in the
weak capping, and there is still a slight chance of isolated storms
this afternoon, mainly for inland areas. 850mb temperatures nudging
up towards 20-26C should make conditions a tad warmer, though highs
should still be in the 90s to lower 100s across the region. Heat
indicies in the range of 108-112 degrees will warrant another heat
advisory for all of SE Texas from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM this
evening.
On Friday, a mid to upper level trough axis sets up over the Great
Lakes/Middle Mississippi River Valley. This seems to slow the
eastward progression of the aforementioned ridge over the Desert
Southwest, limiting it`s influence over the region. Though, NAEFS
850mb temperatures continue to rise, exceeding the 99th
Climatological Percentile. Highs for Friday may reach upwards of 107
degrees across portions of SE Texas with heat indices ranging from
109-113 degrees. A passing shortwave trough will attempt to bring
scattered to isolated storms across Piney Woods area during the
afternoon/early evening. 3km Lapse rates are progged to reach
upwards of 8.4 degC/km in these locations, with MU CAPE approaching
2500 J/KG. With this in mind, SPC has placed these areas under a
marginal (level 1/5) risk of severe weather for Friday, with the
primary threat being damaging winds.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
The combination of increasing instability, a front in the vicinity,
leftover boundaries from possible Friday/Friday night activity and
daytime highs expected to reach the upper 90s to low 100s support
scattered shower and thunderstorm development on Saturday, and some
may become strong or severe. With the front lingering in the area
for the next couple days and a westward retreating mid/upper level
ridge, disturbances moving across the area should bring periods of
showers and thunderstorms to much of Southeast Texas. Along with
the welcome increase in rain chances will come a welcome decrease
in high temperatures (it has been a very warm start to September...
see the Climate section below) as a cold front sags southward into
the area. Inland highs in the mid to upper 90s on Sunday will gradually
trend downward as the week progresses, and anticipate highs in an
upper 80s to lower 90s range by Wednesday.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period.
West/southwesterly winds this morning should become
south/southeasterly this afternoon, then west/southwesterly once
again overnight. Afternoon showers/storms remain possible, but too
isolated in nature to warrant mention in the current TAF.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
Light to occasionally moderate winds and low seas will prevail through
the end of the week. Winds will typically be stronger at night in the
Gulf waters and during the afternoon and evenings in the bays. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend and on into early
next week.
42
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
Hot conditions continue today with triple digit highs expected
inland and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 25-40% in areas
along and north of the US-59 corridor. Rising temperatures and
decreasing humidity are expected through Friday with rain chances
increasing this weekend. Abundance of dry fuels will continue to
leave the region fire-prone. Burn bans remain in place for all
counties in Southeast Texas.
03
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
Through the first six days of the month...
-College Station`s average temperature of 91.5 degrees is 8.0
degrees above normal. This is their warmest start of the month
on record (2nd place is 90.4 degrees in 2000). Records date
back to 1889.
-Houston`s average temperature of 89.2 degrees is 6.0 degrees
above normal. This is their 2nd warmest start of the month on
record (1st place is 89.3 degrees in 2000). Records date back
to 1889.
-Houston Hobby`s average temperature of 89.1 degrees is 5.7
degrees above normal. This is their 2nd warmest start of the
month on record (1st place is 90.1 degrees in 2000). Records
date back to 1930.
-Galveston`s average temperature of 87.8 degrees is 3.6 degrees
above normal. This is their 4th warmest start of the month on
record (1st place is 89.0 degrees in 2020). Records date back
to 1874.
-Palacios`s average temperature of 86.3 degrees is 2.4 degrees
above normal. This is their 6th warmest start of the month
on record (1st place is 88.6 degrees in 2000). Records date
back to 1943.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 80 106 79 / 20 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 104 81 105 80 / 20 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 93 83 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 071059
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
The upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest should largely
dominate the weather pattern across the state through the end of the
work week. Weak impulses are still progged to round the peripheral
of this ridge, passing over SE Texas. Ample moisture from steady
onshore flow should keep PWATs around 1.6-1.9 inches. Factor in the
weak capping, and there is still a slight chance of isolated storms
this afternoon, mainly for inland areas. 850mb temperatures nudging
up towards 20-26C should make conditions a tad warmer, though highs
should still be in the 90s to lower 100s across the region. Heat
indicies in the range of 108-112 degrees will warrant another heat
advisory for all of SE Texas from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM this
evening.
On Friday, a mid to upper level trough axis sets up over the Great
Lakes/Middle Mississippi River Valley. This seems to slow the
eastward progression of the aforementioned ridge over the Desert
Southwest, limiting it`s influence over the region. Though, NAEFS
850mb temperatures continue to rise, exceeding the 99th
Climatological Percentile. Highs for Friday may reach upwards of 107
degrees across portions of SE Texas with heat indices ranging from
109-113 degrees. A passing shortwave trough will attempt to bring
scattered to isolated storms across Piney Woods area during the
afternoon/early evening. 3km Lapse rates are progged to reach
upwards of 8.4 degC/km in these locations, with MU CAPE approaching
2500 J/KG. With this in mind, SPC has placed these areas under a
marginal (level 1/5) risk of severe weather for Friday, with the
primary threat being damaging winds.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
The combination of increasing instability, a front in the vicinity,
leftover boundaries from possible Friday/Friday night activity and
daytime highs expected to reach the upper 90s to low 100s support
scattered shower and thunderstorm development on Saturday, and some
may become strong or severe. With the front lingering in the area
for the next couple days and a westward retreating mid/upper level
ridge, disturbances moving across the area should bring periods of
showers and thunderstorms to much of Southeast Texas. Along with
the welcome increase in rain chances will come a welcome decrease
in high temperatures (it has been a very warm start to September...
see the Climate section below) as a cold front sags southward into
the area. Inland highs in the mid to upper 90s on Sunday will gradually
trend downward as the week progresses, and anticipate highs in an
upper 80s to lower 90s range by Wednesday.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period.
West/southwesterly winds this morning should become
south/southeasterly this afternoon, then west/southwesterly once
again overnight. Afternoon showers/storms remain possible, but too
isolated in nature to warrant mention in the current TAF.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
Light to occasionally moderate winds and low seas will prevail through
the end of the week. Winds will typically be stronger at night in the
Gulf waters and during the afternoon and evenings in the bays. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend and on into early
next week.
42
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
Hot conditions continue today with triple digit highs expected
inland and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 25-40% in areas
along and north of the US-59 corridor. Rising temperatures and
decreasing humidity are expected through Friday with rain chances
increasing this weekend. Abundance of dry fuels will continue to
leave the region fire-prone. Burn bans remain in place for all
counties in Southeast Texas.
03
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023
Through the first six days of the month...
-College Station`s average temperature of 91.5 degrees is 8.0
degrees above normal. This is their warmest start of the month
on record (2nd place is 90.4 degrees in 2000). Records date
back to 1889.
-Houston`s average temperature of 89.2 degrees is 6.0 degrees
above normal. This is their 2nd warmest start of the month on
record (1st place is 89.3 degrees in 2000). Records date back
to 1889.
-Houston Hobby`s average temperature of 89.1 degrees is 5.7
degrees above normal. This is their 2nd warmest start of the
month on record (1st place is 90.1 degrees in 2000). Records
date back to 1930.
-Galveston`s average temperature of 87.8 degrees is 3.6 degrees
above normal. This is their 4th warmest start of the month on
record (1st place is 89.0 degrees in 2020). Records date back
to 1874.
-Palacios`s average temperature of 86.3 degrees is 2.4 degrees
above normal. This is their 6th warmest start of the month
on record (1st place is 88.6 degrees in 2000). Records date
back to 1943.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 80 106 79 / 20 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 104 81 105 80 / 20 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 93 83 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4616
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
TXANS Update—Sept. 7, 2023: ERCOT has issued a Conservation Appeal for today, Sept. 7, from 5 – 9 p.m. CT. Operating reserves are expected to be low this afternoon due to continued high temperatures, high demand, low wind, & declining solar power generation into the afternoon & evening hours. We request Texas businesses & residents conserve electricity use, if safe to do so. For more info, energy-saving tips, & to sign up for #TXANS emails, visit: http://bit.ly/3LdPYbW. You can monitor grid conditions on http://ercot.com & the app.
Not our local problem, but Lee likely to hit Cat 5 before too long. Gonna be a long few days on the east coast.
Damn it’s hot as hell out there. 103°F with a feels like of 112°F. Brutal
105° on Tuesday, 105°F yesterday, 105°F and probably not done today.
Jeff Linder is teasing on FB about widespread showers next week - they are north centric, but consistent with yesterday's Euro and GFS. We'll see.
- Attachments
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Yep. 108°F for the high today. It was brutal out there.