February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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wxman666
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Hey guys, let's see if we can get back on topic now so the mods don't have to worry about that. We will need this thread to keep going through next week so we can see if we get our arctic blast.
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Ptarmigan
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I saw yesterday's 18Z GFS and it showed heavy rain on February 9th. Now, today's 18Z GFS shows much less rain. The GFS model shows no freeze in Houston. I think it will change again.
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wxman666 wrote:Hey guys, let's see if we can get back on topic now so the mods don't have to worry about that. We will need this thread to keep going through next week so we can see if we get our arctic blast.

I take a nap for 3 hours only to see this thread going backwards. :lol: Anyways like y'all have been saying over the last page, lets get back on topic. This forum is known for a higher standard so lets stop all the trash talk. Thanks.
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GFS shows no cold air for any of us and even the east coast misses on this one:

I personally believe the gfs is on crack right now. I don't understand how a 1044mb ridge can set up in the middle of the country and just stop. Also one thing else to note is the shallowness of this air. It looks pretty shallow so models like the GFS are prob going to have trouble with it. Unfortunately it is going to affect our chances for snow.
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sleetstorm
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Also of note is the temperatures in Canada are not as icy as they were this past weekend when they were more in the -40'sºF and -50'sºF range. Someone please rectify me if I am mistaken on that.
Last edited by sleetstorm on Tue Jan 25, 2011 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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sleetstorm wrote:Also of note is the temperatures in Canada are not as icy as they were this past weekend when they were more in the -40'sºF and -50'sºF range.
Heights along with temps are expected to build throughout the week into the weekend as the cold air sinks farther south. Right now a lot of the cold air is farther north and to the east. There are -40 temps up there :
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sleetstorm
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Yes, I know that are still -40'sºF in Canada, Andrew, I was noticing the warmer temperatures in southwest Canada such as parts of British Columbia and Alberta.
Last edited by sleetstorm on Tue Jan 25, 2011 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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sleetstorm wrote:Okay, thank you, Andrew. ;)

No problem. Only concerning thing for me is the colder temps are a little farther east then I want them to be. Good thing though is unline our last "big outbreak" in early January there are cold temps up north. That always helps.
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Y'all are going to like this: CMC has some mighty chilling air coming south all the way to the coast with a shortwave disturbance tracking across the coast causing wintry weather across SE Texas. 850mb temps are not as cold as we would like, but I have a feeling do to the shallowness of this cold air we would get at least some sort of wintry precip with surface temps being below freezing.
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wxman666
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Andrew wrote:Y'all are going to like this: CMC has some mighty chilling air coming south all the way to the coast with a shortwave disturbance tracking across the coast causing wintry weather across SE Texas. 850mb temps are not as cold as we would like, but I have a feeling do to the shallowness of this cold air we would get at least some sort of wintry precip with surface temps being below freezing.
CMC is my favorite. :lol:
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wxman666 wrote:
Andrew wrote:Y'all are going to like this: CMC has some mighty chilling air coming south all the way to the coast with a shortwave disturbance tracking across the coast causing wintry weather across SE Texas. 850mb temps are not as cold as we would like, but I have a feeling do to the shallowness of this cold air we would get at least some sort of wintry precip with surface temps being below freezing.
CMC is my favorite. :lol:

It usually is for people like us. It always produces the coldest runs with the most moisture and or a cat 5 hurricane. :lol:
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Yep CMC looks nice for those in Central and Southeast Texas.One thing I find interesting is that if you look at the strength and position of the high pressure it looks practically the same as the GFS around the same time frame (It even develops a coastal trough just like the GFS), the biggest difference though is that it pushes the cold air pass the Red river (which I feel is more likely to happen) unlike the GFS.
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don wrote:Yep CMC looks nice for those in Central and Southeast Texas.One thing I find interesting is that if you look at the strength and position of the high pressure it looks practically the same as the GFS around the same time frame (It even develops a coastal trough just like the GFS), the biggest difference though is that it pushes the cold air pass the Red river (which I feel is more likely to happen) unlike the GFS.

Ah so you are wxman22. I was going to post that over here after reading that. I agree. It is def something to keep an eye on and is one of the main reasons I don't trust the GFS. Just doesn't look practical.
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:o :o :o
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I did not expect the Euro to look like that... What the heck?
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Mr. T wrote:I did not expect the Euro to look like that... What the heck?

Yea.... I know!. Also GFS ensembles are cold too. So GFS ensembles are cold, Canadian is cold, and Euro is just ridiculous.... Hmmm
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OMG! :o I might have to walk away from my computer for a few minutes. If this run was to actually happen we are talking about temps in the teens down at the coast with single digits from Houston North.. Wow! At least for 850mb heights but I would expect that to be close at the surface (if not colder).
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Andrew wrote:OMG! :o I might have to walk away from my computer for a few minutes. If this run was to actually happen we are talking about temps in the teens down at the coast with single digits from Houston North.. Wow! At least for 850mb heights but I would expect that to be close at the surface (if not colder).
Yeah. After the 12z Euro pushed everything eastward after the GFS, I kind of thought are cold outbreak was kind of over... Admittedly, I hadn't had time to look at any ensembles, so this sudden flip by the 0z Euro is a bit strange, to say the least

Now, one thing that makes me slightly woosey about the 0z Euro is it looks like its bias of holding energy and stretching things across the SW could be in play here as that is a strange look to the trough at 192, but it still builds up the colder air much further to the west than the GFS at day 6
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Mr. T wrote:
Andrew wrote:OMG! :o I might have to walk away from my computer for a few minutes. If this run was to actually happen we are talking about temps in the teens down at the coast with single digits from Houston North.. Wow! At least for 850mb heights but I would expect that to be close at the surface (if not colder).
Yeah. After the 12z Euro pushed everything eastward after the GFS, I kind of thought are cold outbreak was kind of over... Admittedly, I hadn't had time to look at any ensembles, so this sudden flip by the 0z Euro is a bit strange, to say the least

Now, one thing that makes me slightly woosey about the 0z Euro is it looks like its bias of holding energy and stretching things across the SW could be in play here as that is a strange look to the trough at 192, but it still builds up the colder air much further to the west than the GFS at day 6
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