And HGX added even more to our forecast....Hummm (Wxman57..
)
Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain between 3am and 5am, then a slight chance of flurries, freezing rain, and sleet after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday: A slight chance of flurries, freezing rain, and sleet before 8am, then a slight chance of rain between 8am and 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
AFD:
VIATION...
BESIDES SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE EDGE OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARDS FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS
WILL START AROUND 10KFT AND SLOWLY START TO LOWER TO AROUND ~5KT
BY TOMORROW. CLOUDS SHOULD STAY VFR THOUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING
PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FROZEN PRECIP. BOTH GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR AROUND 850MB. THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR ANY
PRECIP THAT FORMS TO EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND. SOUNDING
PROFILES SUPPORT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR KCXO NORTHWARDS
WHILE ICE PELLETS FOR KSGR NORTHWARDS. THE NAM OMEGA FIELD SHOWS LIFT
OVER THE HOUSTON AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BETTER LIFT OFFSHORE.
HIGH RES MODELS ARE A MIXTURE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWING
HARDLY ANY PRECIP WHILE THE NAM... NMM... AND ARW SHOW PRECIP
FORMING BUT HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. IN THE END WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SNOW FLAKE/ ICE PELLET OR TWO TO MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND BUT AT THIS POINT THE CHANCE LOOKS LOW. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY STRETCHING THRU SRN AZ & NEW MEXICO
INTO MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS MORNING. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME RETURNS BEGIN SHOWING UP ON RADAR AFTER 3 AM AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES.
PROBLEM IS MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ABOVE 8000FT WITH DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER THRU MID MORNING THURS. SO...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF RETURNS TO BE VIRGA WITH JUST AN ISOLATED,
INTERMITTENT, VERY LIGHT MIX REACHING THE GROUND FROM TIME TO TIME
THRU ABOUT 10 AM. NO SIGNIFICANT FROZEN ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED, NEITHER ARE ANY WINTER RELATED ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME.
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT OCCURS, LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SW & PRESERVE MCLDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
THRU THE DAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS
TX LATE FRI BRINGING A (SLIGHT) CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE.
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND PRESSURES FALL TO THE WEST. DIFFERENCES
ARISE IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS ON SUNDAY WHEN GFS TRIES TO BRING A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA. ECMWF GENERALLY STALLS
AND MEANDERS THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SE TX LATE SUN THRU WED MORNING
UNTIL IT GETS A NUDGE FROM THE NEXT INCOMING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. TIMING & DETAILS ASIDE, IT APPEARS WE SHOULD GET SOME SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. STARTED TRENDING FCST CLOSER
TO THE MORE PROLONGED ECMWF CHANCES THAT ALSO PROVIDES A SFC
FOCUSING MECHANISM. 47