March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

3 inch per 45 minute rainfall rates reported with the storms to the SW of Houston near Victoria.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
852 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

JACKSON TX-COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-
852 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
JACKSON COUNTY...WESTERN WHARTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
COUNTY...

AT 850 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SPEAKS...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF EDNA...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...EDNA...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...GANADO...LA WARD...LOLITA...
ALTAIR...CORDELE...LAKE TEXANA DAM...MORALES...SHERIDAN...LOUISE...ROCK
ISLAND...GARWOOD...VANDERBILT AND NADA.

[ticka1]

3 inch per 45 minute rainfall rates reported with the storms to the SW of Houston near Victoria.

That's alot of rain in a short short time frame.

[srainhoutx]

3 inch per 45 minute rainfall rates reported with the storms to the SW of Houston near Victoria.

That's alot of rain in a short short time frame.

It is and goes along with what has been expected for this event. Notice where the frontal boundary is located basically along the I-35 Corridor. Anywhere S of that boundary could see torrential rainfall rates particularly as we see a bit of daytime heating. The Storm Prediction Center continues to have an Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms basically from Houston SW along the Middle Texas Coast to Corpus Christi.

[ticka1]

I'll admit I was wrong - now to turn our attention to today's developments. When will downtown be under the gun or the storms moving off to the north and east?

[tireman4]

We luv ya Ticka...I bet from 10 am onward, but I will let Srain do the fact checking on that..

[Rip76]

Ticka - looks like an area of rain/storms should be entering downtown shortly.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center Expands the High Risk for Excessive Rainfall to include portions of SE Texas including Metro Houston:

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
958 AM EST WED MAR 09 2016

...VALID 15Z WED MAR 09 2016 - 12Z THU MAR 10 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

1500 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO EXPAND THE HIGH RISK AREA OVER FAR EASTERN TX...NORTHWEST LA
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AR FOR THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING HEAVY RAINS
AND LOWERED FFG VALUES FROM EARLIER RAINS AND LIKELIHOOD OF
TRAINING AS THE HEAVY PRECIP BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. THE
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN TX INTO NORTHERN LA THAT
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS THROUGH TODAY. WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE WESTERN GULF
AND INTO AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST LA
AND EXPAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID TO UPPER TX COAST
INTO SOUTHWEST LA. ACROSS THESE AREAS THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF TRAINING OF CELLS...PRODUCING SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 2"+
IN AN HOUR AND TOTALS THIS PERIOD IN THE 5-10"+ RANGE. THE 0000
UTC HI RES ARW AND SSEO MEAN SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
AREAS OF THE GREATEST HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MOVING FORWARD INTO
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...CONCENTRATING THE HEAVIEST RAINS FROM FAR
EASTERN TX INTO LARGE PORTIONS OF LA...FAR SOUTHERN AR INTO NW MS.
WITH CONVECTION FOCUSING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT...BELIEVE THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS DIMINISHING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY FROM SOUTHEAST
MO...SOUTHERN IL. ACROSS THESE AREAS AND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
AR AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK---THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS WERE
TIGHTENED UP TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO REFLECT THIS LESSENING
THREAT.

ORAVEC

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
919 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 918 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KAMEY...OR 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT LAVACA...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT LAVACA...KAMEY AND KAMAY.

[jasons2k]

So far, I have had .62"

[ticka1]

Hopefully it will wait until 4:00 p.m. before the flooding starts......don't want to be stuck at work. LOL.

[srainhoutx]

Warnings are beginning to come in too fast to keep up with across the Brownsville and Corpus Areas. Storms continue to develop over NE Mexico feeding into the convective complex. Stay safe out there today and remember, Turn Around. Don't Drown!

[tireman4]

Thundering in the Gulfgate area...

[Rip76]

Coming down in Stafford.

[ticka1]

They made it to downtown. It is thundering here.

[BlueJay]

1.26 inches at my house.

[tireman4]

What worries me is that how long will our drainage hold out as these clusters come in? Our sewers in Houston are not the greatest.

[BigThicket]

I know the models got the timing wrong but this system is slow and evolving...hide and watch as it may leap up and surprise us when it all comes together.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091607Z - 091830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
INTENSITY INCREASE FROM SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA. A FEW TORNADOES AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS DO NOT SUGGEST AN IMMEDIATE NEED FOR A WW...BUT WW
ISSUANCE MIGHT BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 10 AM CST A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
SERN TX TO CNTRL AND NERN LA. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE WITH NEAR-SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F
SUPPORTING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY STABLE INDICATING THE ONGOING STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. STRONG 50 KT SLY LLJ WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION
TODAY...SUPPORTING LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS...WHILE SHEAR THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION OVER SERN TX AND SWRN LA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
DELAY/LIMIT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT A
SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED...AND STORM UPDRAFTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SFC LAYER SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

..DIAL/GOSS.. 03/09/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

COLORADO TX-AUSTIN TX-
1020 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

* AT 1019 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND ANOTHER INCH OF
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SEALY...BELLVILLE...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...SHELBY...WEIMAR...SAN FELIPE...
INDUSTRY...FRELSBURG...ALTAIR...CAT SPRING...SHERIDAN...ROCK ISLAND...
GARWOOD AND NEW ULM.