TD #02L Gulf of Mexico

[redfish1]

other boards are mentioning that the system is now moving NW possibly NNW

[biggerbyte]

Logic may suggest wnw, based on conditions, but radar and sat. views tell a different tale. Currently, it is moving N.W.. I have not noticed a N.N.W. movement. Others apparantly have.

Edit to say, after looking again I might buy into a NNW movement. So either looks plausable. It is difficult to pinpoint. However, let me just add that it is clear that it is not moving more west, than north.

[MRG93415]

Logic may suggest wnw, based on conditions, but radar and sat. views tell a different tale. Currently, it is moving N.W.. I have not noticed a N.N.W. movement. Others apparantly have.

Thanks, so staying on this course, what will this mean for the storm and for us here in Houston??

[weatherguy425]

Heeavy ran no matter where it makes landfall, guys even if this thing is callssified it needs to be streesed that deppression, or name or name or whatever... In this case all of the effects will be the same.

[Scott747]

Logic may suggest wnw, based on conditions, but radar and sat. views tell a different tale. Currently, it is moving N.W.. I have not noticed a N.N.W. movement. Others apparantly have.

Thanks, so staying on this course, what will this mean for the storm and for us here in Houston??

Same as before.

Plenty of rain. Gusty winds and possible coastal flooding.

[redfish1]

will this movement get it close to us here in southeast texas and will it give it enough time to possibly get to TS status

[srainhoutx]

TCFA issued...

WTNT01 KNGU 072000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 072000Z JUL 10//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.8N 93.6W TO 26.1N 98.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.8N 93.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO. THE LATEST METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION,
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING. INCREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION AND LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 082000Z.//

[biggerbyte]

Logic may suggest wnw, based on conditions, but radar and sat. views tell a different tale. Currently, it is moving N.W.. I have not noticed a N.N.W. movement. Others apparantly have.

Thanks, so staying on this course, what will this mean for the storm and for us here in Houston??

Depends on location of landfall, then strength. Flooding rains, whether it hits s.e. Texas, or not. We can discuss impact later on as this mess gets closer to land, and we see what we are dealing with. Minimal, heavy rain, maximum impact depends.

[Scott747]

TCFA issued...

That tends to be one of the most misused graphics in the tropical world.... Not picking at you but how it's perceived overall.

It was already in the stages of potentially forming into a cyclone and to many folks assume that this means the storm is about to be imminently upgraded by the NHC when this particular 'alert' is put out by the Navy.

[srainhoutx]

TCFA issued...

That tends to be one of the most misused graphics in the tropical world.... Not picking at you but how it's perceived overall.

It was already in the stages of potentially forming into a cyclone and to many folks assume that this means the storm is about to be imminently upgraded by the NHC when this particular 'alert' is put out by the Navy.

I agree Scott. But it does play a role in educating folks in the processes involved within the overall development strategies used by the Navy, HPC, NHC etc... This one happens to be the Navy.

[redfish1]

i think the models will keep shifting north throughout the night what do you all think?

[Scott747]

i think the models will keep shifting north throughout the night what do you all think?

Doesn't really matter much. The effects will be the same.

[Scott747]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND
INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL
AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Scott747]

If it keeps showing signs of organizing they may go ahead and initiate advisories before the newscasts at 10.

[srainhoutx]

Sunset. Convection near the LLC beginning to fire...

[Scott747]

It does appear to be heading towards the WNW and not NW as some earlier thought. Looks good with the convection popping around the center per the image from Steve and other sat views.

If they were to initiate advisories I'd take a stab at Port O'Conner being the furthest northern breakpoint.

[Ptarmigan]

The NHC gave 96L a 80% chance it will develop in the next 48 hours. I think it will develop as earlier as tonight.

[Ptarmigan]

Very true. Regardless if 96L develops or not, we will likely see more heavy rain.

[Ptarmigan]

The vorticity level is deeper around 96L.

[srainhoutx]

Moisture 'envelope' certainly has increased...