I'm not looking for record breaking cold...just enough cold to support a little frozen precip if we get it..you can keep the extreme stuffKHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:03 pmAre you sure it's the GFS? I just looked at the 18z and the lowest I could find was 25 for Houston. I mean I did see 18 degrees for Huntsville and College Station on Sunday morning but I'm not convinced. This arctic airmass just doesn't look all that to me like it once did. We'll get cold but likely nothing memorable. Could change.
February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
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Kingwood36
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Yeah that’s what I meant. The northern parts of southeast TX.KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:03 pmAre you sure it's the GFS? I just looked at the 18z and the lowest I could find was 25 for Houston. I mean I did see 18 degrees for Huntsville and College Station on Sunday morning but I'm not convinced. This arctic airmass just doesn't look all that to me like it once did. We'll get cold but likely nothing memorable. Could change.
The trend is your friend, although a long way out...but the latest iterations are in agreement.KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:03 pmAre you sure it's the GFS? I just looked at the 18z and the lowest I could find was 25 for Houston. I mean I did see 18 degrees for Huntsville and College Station on Sunday morning but I'm not convinced. This arctic airmass just doesn't look all that to me like it once did. We'll get cold but likely nothing memorable. Could change.
The last 2 GFS runs have been colder. The last Euro run was colder. Latest Ensemble runs are lower. Latest CMC is 11 degrees colder. Euro also broke colder as well.
CMC has an 11°F in College Station on Monday night (15-16th). I expect naturally moderation...but that chance of some serious cold in a week or so is out there, and the major models have their interest piqued. (with the usual Lucy and Highway Lucy disclaimers)Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:25 pmYeah that’s what I meant. The northern parts of southeast TX.KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:03 pmAre you sure it's the GFS? I just looked at the 18z and the lowest I could find was 25 for Houston. I mean I did see 18 degrees for Huntsville and College Station on Sunday morning but I'm not convinced. This arctic airmass just doesn't look all that to me like it once did. We'll get cold but likely nothing memorable. Could change.
I also want to add that the GFS is notoriously on the warm side.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:41 pmThe trend is your friend, although a long way out...but the latest iterations are in agreement.KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:03 pmAre you sure it's the GFS? I just looked at the 18z and the lowest I could find was 25 for Houston. I mean I did see 18 degrees for Huntsville and College Station on Sunday morning but I'm not convinced. This arctic airmass just doesn't look all that to me like it once did. We'll get cold but likely nothing memorable. Could change.
The last 2 GFS runs have been colder. The last Euro run was colder. Latest Ensemble runs are lower. Latest CMC is 11 degrees colder. Euro also broke colder as well.
They were up here in January, especially the 10th!Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:49 pmI also want to add that the GFS is notoriously on the warm side.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:41 pmThe trend is your friend, although a long way out...but the latest iterations are in agreement.KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:03 pm
Are you sure it's the GFS? I just looked at the 18z and the lowest I could find was 25 for Houston. I mean I did see 18 degrees for Huntsville and College Station on Sunday morning but I'm not convinced. This arctic airmass just doesn't look all that to me like it once did. We'll get cold but likely nothing memorable. Could change.
The last 2 GFS runs have been colder. The last Euro run was colder. Latest Ensemble runs are lower. Latest CMC is 11 degrees colder. Euro also broke colder as well.
Is that really true...im not sure I've noticed that.
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danmaloney
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I DETECT negativity from blakeKingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:06 pmI'm not looking for record breaking cold...just enough cold to support a little frozen precip if we get it..you can keep the extreme stuffKHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:03 pmAre you sure it's the GFS? I just looked at the 18z and the lowest I could find was 25 for Houston. I mean I did see 18 degrees for Huntsville and College Station on Sunday morning but I'm not convinced. This arctic airmass just doesn't look all that to me like it once did. We'll get cold but likely nothing memorable. Could change.
Ah, Dan Baloney is back, I see...
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Kingwood36
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mcheer23
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Good ole AZ desert
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LOL AZ is back.... BTW 0z GFS is still showing a light wintry mix next weekend. While the precip doesn't really show up on the model looking at the meteograms it shows freezing drizzle for several hours next Saturday. The 0z CMC also still shows a major ice storm starting on valentines day.
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We’ll see if this cold blast actually happens or not. The Euro continues to be adamant that it won’t happen.
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TexasMetBlake
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00z Euro says no dice on the cold for the third run in a row. Sigh..
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srainhoutx
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Good morning from the Snowy Smokies. SE Ridge failed! 
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Kingwood36
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Man this just keeps getting pushed back again and again..what is preventing it from just letting go?
The SE ridge I believe. And maybe not enough blocking up near Alaska/far western Canada.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:12 am Man this just keeps getting pushed back again and again..what is preventing it from just letting go?
Are we getting freezing temps this weekend into early next week?