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The sounding is showing veering winds with height in the atmosphere.Due to decent shear its showing a favorable setup for discrete supercells across the eastern half of the state.The SPC can do a better job at explaining soundings than i can LOL.Here's an easy guide they have on how to read them.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sounding ... index.html

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 12:29 pm

don wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 12:15 pm Yikes not often you see soundings like this down here...Looks like there may be two rounds of severe weather one on Monday and another on Tuesday.

Can you explain how to read those? I’ve never understood them and I’m pretty sure the vast majority of us on here don’t know how either.

Really cold temps at cloud top level. Likely to produce tall T-storms with uplift creating layer after layer of ice - hail.

Severe season is now late March and April around here and again in the late Fall. April-May in KS, May-June in Colorado - Minnesota.

The y-axis is altitude in the form of Barometric pressure. The x-axis is temperature. Graphs are for actual temperature, dewpoint/wet bulb temp, etc.

Im really hoping the severe threat does not come to fruition on monday, we dont need that crap here

Latest Euro doesn’t show much for southeast TX.

Good

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 2:40 pm Latest Euro doesn’t show much for southeast TX.

It still shows a strong line of storms moving through Tuesday. The line looks to be moving fairly fast, but I still think rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are going to be rather likely. I don't think we really will know just how much rain to expect until this weekend at the earliest.

It may still be far out, but this 18z GFS sounding for Next Monday is really scary, the sounding is for Southern Houston.

The really scary part is that it's not a contaminated sounding.

don wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 12:54 pm The sounding is showing veering winds with height in the atmosphere.Due to decent shear its showing a favorable setup for discrete supercells across the eastern half of the state.The SPC can do a better job at explaining soundings than i can LOL.Here's an easy guide they have on how to read them.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sounding ... index.html

Right. Look on the right side at wind direction. Notice how it changes markedly with increasing altitude/lower BP. The creates shear and rotation. Coupled with cold temps and high cloud tops - potential for severe weather including hail.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 7:20 pm

don wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 12:54 pm The sounding is showing veering winds with height in the atmosphere.Due to decent shear its showing a favorable setup for discrete supercells across the eastern half of the state.The SPC can do a better job at explaining soundings than i can LOL.Here's an easy guide they have on how to read them.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sounding ... index.html

Right. Look on the right side at wind direction. Notice how it changes markedly with increasing altitude/lower BP. The creates shear and rotation. Coupled with cold temps and high cloud tops - potential for severe weather including hail.

Agreed. We need to keep a close watch on next week. Could be a decent amount of severe weather.

Day 5 enhanced risk north of Houston ....that's quite rare.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:55 am Day 5 enhanced risk north of Houston ....that's quite rare.

Especially close to our neck of the woods. First time I’ve ever seen it, I believe.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 8:20 am

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:55 am Day 5 enhanced risk north of Houston ....that's quite rare.

Especially close to our neck of the woods. First time I’ve ever seen it, I believe.

If I remember right...not even the High risk in the piney woods (April 2,2017) was an enhanced D4.

S2K (as expected) thinks this is a NE Texas event. Some of the maps are showing a Hotspot in SW LA though, so depending how far east / west things setup will be key for us.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 11:14 am S2K (as expected) thinks this is a NE Texas event. Some of the maps are showing a Hotspot in SW LA though, so depending how far east / west things setup will be key for us.

Probably will be a high risk area where they have that 30% right now with a moderate risk north of I-10 and enhanced south of there. Just my guess.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 11:14 am S2K (as expected) thinks this is a NE Texas event. Some of the maps are showing a Hotspot in SW LA though, so depending how far east / west things setup will be key for us.

The NE Texas area talked about on S2K appears to be Today's event, Next Monday looks really scary for Eastern & SE Texas

If it's really going to be bad, when should we expect a PDS? Sunday night? Monday morning?

Boy im really hoping this severe weather event on monday is a huge bust, we dont need any of that here

HGX is taking it seriously, they never add severe thunderstorms to the forecast grids this far in advance.

From there afternoon discussion just released.

Severe weather event looking more likely for the area on Monday.

PWAT increasing going into Monday and will be dealing with strong
dynamics ahead of the cold front and dryline on Monday with the cap
eroding as the day goes on. Very favorable conditions for severe
weather arise over SETX with instability at a premium (thanks to the
very strong WAA-will probably need a wind advisory as well for
Monday) with very high shear. This far out the shear is probably
'smoothed out' and when the time comes will likely be much more
focused and higher. Have gone ahead and added severe wording to
Monday. The front of course is getting hung up with the upper low
slowing and the dryline makes an appearance this far east. After the
storms Monday expect some sort of residual boundary/boundaries over
the area as a focus for more storms though most likely with a
diminished shear profile but more likely to favor slow
moving/backbuilding-ish rainfall threat Monday night/Tuesday morning
before eventually the deep dry air sweeps through off the Mexican
Plateau.

There’s a huge difference between the Euro and GFS. GFS is pretty much crickets, while the Euro has 1-2” over a good part of southeast TX. The GFS has higher amounts towards the Golden Triangle and into LA. The Euro has huge totals towards central and north TX.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:21 pm Boy im really hoping this severe weather event on monday is a huge bust, we dont need any of that here

College Station might be in the bullseye.