May Weather Discussions. Drougnt Continues For Houston

[Paul]

blowing right on over here in Pearland....just some light rain...but I will take it...yesterday I was in Denver on business with 35F and snowing.


update- bam moderate rain here now....thank you lord...

[Rip76]

Coming down in the Sagemont area.

[Canebo]

Just enough rain to wet the ground in League City.

[txflagwaver]

About 5 minutes of light rain. Did not even wet the driveway down. Guess I'll get out the sprinkler..~sigh~

[srainhoutx]

Right about .6 in the backyard and still coming down lightly and I am thankful.

[jasons2k]

I only had .37" when I got home....

[srainhoutx]

Winds have really kicked up this afternoon. If we are going to see anymore activity, the dryline and frontal boundary would be the focal points IMO. Meanwhile the southern end of the MCS has really fired up offshore of S TX...

[Ptarmigan]

Nice to see rain finally! WAHOO! There could be rain overnight. I notice on Doppler radar that some areas west of Bryan/College Station had 11 inches of rain. Could this be due to hail?

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THIS BROKEN AND WEAKENING (AS IT OUTRACES THE BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT)
QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM WILL PASS OFF THE COAST AND BE OUT OF HERE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY SUNSET...THE FORECAST BECOMES
QUITE CHALLENGING. THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KS SHOULD STILL HAVE
AN IMPACT AS ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS BETWEEN 13/00Z-12Z. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY WORKED
OVER...IT SHOULD STILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT. THE TRIGGER IS THIS AFTERNOON`S
BIG QUESTION MARK. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ZONALLY-POSITIONED JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS? HAVE LEFT 30-40 POPS IN THROUGH 1 AM...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE DRY LINE
HAS NOT BEEN A PLAYER TODAY...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST
ENTERING THE PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[srainhoutx]

HGX Update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
616 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MCS HAS REACHED THE
TX/LA BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY ERODING SINCE MID-AFTN. LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD END
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SFC DRYLINE REMAINS WELL
WEST OF THE AREA OVER NORTHWEST TX AND THE HILL COUNTRY. MODELS
ALL AGREE THAT ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
DRYLINE THIS EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY NOT MAKING IT TO SE TX DUE
TO THE STABILIZED AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. WILL KEEP 20
POPS GOING OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
AS THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS LINGERS (PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES). TEMPS
ARE NEAR FORECAST MINIMUMS RIGHT NOW AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BURN OFF BY MIDNIGHT AND UNCERTAIN ON THE AMOUNT
OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING AND THE WET GROUND CONDITIONS WILL ADD
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
FRIDAY...WITH FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO REACH NW ZONES MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN AND POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OFF THE COAST UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET. SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY AND BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP
CLOSER TO THE NAM12 FCST 2M TEMPS. THE NAM12/GFS/ECMWF AND 4KM
NMM-WRF ALL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN OVER
SRN/ERN ZONES DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING THIS
AREA. DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY`S MCS ENDED UP FAIRLY LIGHT. AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF US 59 RECEIVED MOSTLY 1/2 TO 1 INCH
TOTALS...WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING LESS THAN A 1/2 INCH EAST OF THAT
LINE. A TOTAL OF 0.13 INCH WAS MEASURED AT HOBBY AIRPORT ENDING
THE 58 DAY STREAK WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

[jasons2k]

I only had .39" total. I'll be watching closely tomorrow - maybe we can get lucky one more time.

[svrwx0503]

Had a grand total of 0.71'' with a measured peak wind of 42mph at 2:02pm.

[unome]

a happy little .87" of rain over here (if it's accurate) http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KTXDRYCR1

that's more than we've had in a very long time & I don't owe the MUD one red cent for it

ending the day with 1.09", the trees & lawns look alive again, pollen is washed off the roof, car & grill cover & the cool air feels & smells heavenly

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if it will rain again later tonight to early morning. Let's hope so.

[srainhoutx]

Models suggest our next chance of rain will arrive next Friday. Meanwhile, enjoy the weekend and nice weather with less humidity.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
458 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-140000-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS
458 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DRY AIRMASS BEHIND IT. HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD
DROP TO 35 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 25
PERCENT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. FUELS MAY STILL BE DRY
DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA PROMPTING THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER.

THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SINCE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LOWER WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY
FUELS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

[wxman57]

Here's a map of the rainfall across Houston from yesterday's line of storms. As I said, it may well be that the 18Z sounding's identification of considerable dry air aloft over IAH (0.23" at IAH) was a factor in the demise of the line as it approached. I measured 1.02" at my house in SW Houston (marked on the map).

[srainhoutx]

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
220 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

                 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

              ...RAIN FINALLY RETURNS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

           ...EXCEPTIONAL AND EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPAND
                         TOWARD THE COAST...

SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
REGION...FINALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS ON
THURSDAY MAY 12TH EXCEEDED TWO INCHES NORTHWEST OF A COLUMBUS TO
MADISONVILLE LINE. DESPITE THE RECENT RAIN...SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINS
IN AN EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AND RAINFALL DEFICITS SINCE
OCTOBER 1ST REMAIN IN DOUBLE DIGITS. HERE ARE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS
WHICH COMPARE YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WITH THE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
OCTOBER 1ST THROUGH MAY 11TH.

LOCATION            10/1/10 -      THURSDAY
                    5/11/11        MAY 12 RAIN

BELLVILLE           6.98           1.17
BRENHAM             8.51           1.32
COLLEGE STN         6.26           1.96
COLUMBUS            8.57           1.30
CONROE             12.74           0.51
CROCKETT           15.93           0.67
DANEVANG           10.99           1.21+
GALVESTON          17.93           0.20
FREEPORT           11.50           0.53
HOU HOBBY          15.88           0.18#
HOUSTON            12.49           0.23
HUNTSVILLE          8.37           0.49
LIVINGSTON         12.18           NA
KATY                9.79           1.25
MADISONVILLE        7.19           0.86
MATAGORDA           8.86           0.85
NEW CANEY           NA             NA
SOMERVILLE          4.99           2.61!
TOMBALL             8.42           0.16
WASH ST PARK        8.04           1.03

+ DANEVANG RECEIVED 1.21 INCHES OF RAIN ON MAY 12TH. PRIOR TO THE
RAIN...THIS LOCATION HAD ONLY RECEIVED 0.69 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
LAST 100 DAYS.

# HOBBY AIRPORT IN HOUSTON RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAIN FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 14TH. THE AIRPORT WENT 58 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT
MEASURABLE RAIN AND IS THE LONGEST SUCH STREAK IN AIRPORT HISTORY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 46 DAYS WHICH OCCURRED IN NOVEMBER 1978.

! SOMERVILLE RECEIVED 2.61 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE 11TH. THIS
COMMUNITY HAD ONLY RECEIVED 4.99 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE OCTOBER 1ST.
IT TOOK 224 DAYS TO TALLY 4.99 INCHES OF RAIN AND ONE DAY TO PRODUCE
2.61 INCHES OF RAIN OR 53.3 PERCENT OF THE SEVEN MONTH TOTAL.

EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...IT IS STILL THE
DRIEST OCTOBER 1ST THROUGH MAY 12TH FOR COLLEGE STATION AND THE CITY
OF HOUSTON. GOOD NEWS FOR DANEVANG! THE HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY
MOVED THE 2011 TOTAL TO THE 8TH DRIEST IN RECORDED HISTORY.

[Ptarmigan]

Areas that got more rain yesterday needed the rain as they are in an Exceptional Drought. I hope for more rain soon.

[srainhoutx]

What a beautiful mid May day ahead. Cool breezes and little humidity should make for pleasant outdoor activities. Models still suggest rain chances increasing later next week and even the HPC is mentioning rain/storms across drought parched Texas at this range...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
732 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

VALID 12Z WED MAY 18 2011 - 12Z SAT MAY 21 2011

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY LATE PERIOD...

A DEEP CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WEST INTO THE
PLAINS NEAR THE 40TH PARALLEL ABOUT 20 DEGREES UNDER THE APEX OF A
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE IN CENTRAL CANADA. ALONG WITH THE 12Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES SUPPORT...THIS FAVORS THE 00Z GFS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST AND
PLAINS. THE 00Z ECMWF LOST ALL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AFTER THURSDAY
EVENING...AND WAS NOT CONSIDERED USABLE THEREAFTER. DUE TO ITS
SLOW MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE NEXT
WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS TEXAS NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT/DRYLINE.

OUT EAST...THE PICTURE IS MORE COMPLICATED AS TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADIAN RIDGE COULD DIG FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO LURE THE CLOSED LOW IN THE EAST NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA...AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS
FASTER THAN THE OLD GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS JUST ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SIT IN PLACE. THE
PROBLEM IS...THE 00Z ECMWF LOSES VIRTUALLY ALL 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE 00Z CANADIAN CAN
ALSO TRACK CLOSED LOWS TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUES BEYOND THURSDAY
EVENING...USED A 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES OR MORE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BASED ON NEWER 00Z ECMWF ENS AND LATEST
LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS. HAVE MODIFIED PROGS AND H500S TOWARDS
THE LAGGED AVERAGES OF GFS/ECMWF WHICH WAS A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS ENS MEANS WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
ROTH/ROSENSTEIN

[sleetstorm]

So, what is it going to take to put an end to Texas' drought, tropical showers and thunderstorms?

[weatherrabbit]

it very well could be tropical.....im up for a pattern change