February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[TexasMetBlake]

Hey guys, Steve, and others...

Just walked outside and looked up. Clouds are definitely thick. It's 19 in Conroe and 19 at Hooks. The best I can guess at my house is 18-20 degrees. Either way, we may have a hard time getting to freezing today.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. I see clouds have moved in overnight and it's 18.2F up here this morning. Anyone think we will not get above freezing today?

Morning Steve (is that right)?

Great question. I think coastal areas might see just above for a short period, but wouldn't be surprised, especially with the winds and CAA that temps stay at/near/below for areas along/N of I-10...IMHO

Regarding my temp? Nearby Weather bug and other personal weather stations are within .2-.3 above or below my reading, so it's a good one.

[cristina99]

good morning all! The Woodlands is at 21 this morning. I really don't see us warming up all that much. So excited about the snow event! I would love a snow day and a day off from work. Will we get a better idea of the areas with the most accumulation and the path the low takes sometime today? David Paul is forecasting 60% chance of snow on Friday with it starting Thursday night at 30%. And will the clouds clear out tonight and make the temps lower?

[TexasMetBlake]

Temp is down to 21 at IAH. Brrrrrr. CXO, Hooks and CLL holding steady at 19 (3 hours in a row now)

[srainhoutx]

The clouds are here to stay, I suspect cristina99, until late Friday/early Saturday depending on when the Upper Low ejects across TX. The 06Z GFS and the 03Z SREF are a little more encouraging for wintry weather across the region. It should be an interesting 24-48 hour to see just what unfolds.

[Poltracker]

Been a long time since I've posted, though I have been lurking....22.8 here in DP right now.

[TexasBreeze]

Something's holding hgx from issuing a watch now. They went with a special weather statement for now.

[weatherguy425]

Musttttt be a pretty strong system to throw around enough WAA to allow this system to maybe start as rain!

[jabcwb2]

CH 11 shows 41 degrees for Spring, TX today.....Really??

[srainhoutx]

Musttttt be a pretty strong system to throw around enough WAA to allow this system to maybe start as rain!

Looks like a very narrow warm (barely above 0 in the 850 level) nose of Pacific air. Wet bulbing may take care of that in a hurry, though...

[TexasMetBlake]

Something's holding hgx from issuing a watch now. They went with a special weather statement for now.

Time probably. A watch only has to be issued 36 hours in advance. They clearly mention in HGX AFD that a Winter Storm Watch will be needed.

[srainhoutx]

I will add after looking at the guidance, I suspect they are too warm. Our currents obs as well as those across the Plains and Upper Mid West do not match what we are actually seeing realtime. Interesting and that throws a wrinkle in guidance and what the sensible weather may really be, IMO.

[jabcwb2]

I will add after looking at the guidance, I suspect they are too warm. Our currents obs as well as those across the Plains and Upper Mid West do not match what we are actually seeing realtime. Interesting and that throws a wrinkle in guidance and what the sensible weather may really be, IMO.

Sounds ominous

[unome]

Dallas NWS graphic

[unome]

Wed Media Briefing http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing

[Snowman]

i have a feeling the winter storm watch will go up at noon because that will be 36 hours from the forecasted start of the event

[jabcwb2]

I have just about worn out my "Refresh" button!!!! Time for me to go to work. You kids have fun today!

[snowman65]

Our local met has now added 30% snow for Saturday for the golden triangle (Th-40%-Fri-70%-Sat-30^)...SWEET!!

[srainhoutx]

Portastorm just e-mailed me and stated he is at 18F in S Austin and just lost power in his neighborhood. Ouch.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye n the radar trends today. FWD has snow flurries in their short range forecast this morning. Oh, and Happy Birthday, BB & kathknits!