February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[TexasMetBlake]

Next temperature update out in just a few minutes. Folks, I have serious doubts about reaching above freezing today.

[srainhoutx]

Seeing reports of no power in the West U area this morning. Hopefully someone can confirm that.

[TexasMetBlake]

Seeing reports of no power in the West U area this morning. Hopefully someone can confirm that.

269,000 people are without power this morning from College Station to Houston.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, there is a difference in a winter weather advisory and a winter storm watch. We will see which one gets issued. I'm confident that there will be one or the other at some point very soon. We should be able to lock down this forecast by tonight. You will be able to tell how confident the NWS is in this event by which weather watch they put up.

[biggerbyte]

Thanks for the birthday wishes, Srain.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting Ob from S Padre Island this morning (light snow the past 3 reports). It is an automated weather station, so take it for what it's worth...

KSPL 021255Z AUTO RMK AO2 PWINO PNO TSNO

Code: Select all

8 AM (13) Feb 02 No Data     
 7 AM (12) Feb 02 35 (2) 26 (-3) 30.36 (1028)  light snow 
 6 AM (11) Feb 02 35 (2) 26 (-3) 30.35 (1027) NW 23 light snow 
 5 AM (10) Feb 02 37 (3) 28 (-2) 30.33 (1027) NW 18 light snow 

[cristina99]

seeing the latest forecast from David Paul makes me somewhat skeptic. Although he said the low would go further inland (like central and north texas) and we would be on the wet side, I am beginning to doubt we would get much snow. Someone PLEASE correct me on this - since I am new, maybe I'm reading things wrong. And I don't mean to put a damper in here because I'm looking forward to a snow event - more so than the next person.

[wxman57]

Seeing reports of no power in the West U area this morning. Hopefully someone can confirm that.

It appears that the cold has knocked out our internet in Westbury. Went down around 5:30. Probably a power outage upstream.

I'm doubting we'll see much above 32 degrees for the high today. Snow still looks likely tomorrow evening/Friday.

[TexasMetBlake]

I can't deal with the panic today. I'm going to have to stay away from the computer.

**A WINTER STORM WATCH** is the most LIKELY to be issued for a couple of reasons. First, it's what my friend at HGX said. Second, there is considerable uncertainty in the amounts and precip type. Third, models still showing snow for Houston. Does anybody read the discussions anymore? Fourth, Winter Storm criteria here is very low (2" of snow) and since ice is now possible first, driving will be a disaster across Houston on Friday. Fifth, I'm in a grumpy mood---maybe because I went to bed at 1am and got up at 445am. I dunno. Forgive me.

[Paul]

I can't deal with the panic today. I'm going to have to stay away from the computer.

**A WINTER STORM WATCH** is the most LIKELY to be issued for a couple of reasons. First, it's what my friend at HGX said. Second, there is considerable uncertainty in the amounts and precip type. Third, models still showing snow for Houston. Does anybody read the discussions anymore? Fourth, Winter Storm criteria here is very low (2" of snow) and since ice is now possible first, driving will be a disaster across Houston on Friday. Fifth, I'm in a grumpy mood---maybe because I went to bed at 1am and got up at 445am. I dunno. Forgive me.

well said CC...

[srainhoutx]

Get some rest CC. It's all good. When that fluffy light stuff begins to fall, you'll feel all better.

[biggerbyte]

Lol!!! Ouch! Dude... Get some sleep. I know how you feel. It is difficult to turn away. The excitement is grand. Today is the day to rest, folks. No one will want to sleep much after that.

[unome]

http://www.khou.com/news/local/Official ... 93329.html

Officials: Statewide rolling power outages ordered to conserve energy
by khou.com staff
khou.com
Posted on February 2, 2011 at 7:06 AM
Updated today at 7:11 AM

HOUSTON—The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has instructed utilities to begin rotating outages to compensate for a generation shortage due to numerous plant trips that occurred because of the extreme weather.
Rotating outages are controlled, temporary interruptions of electric service, typically lasting 10-45 minutes per neighborhood. The locations and durations are determined by the local utilities. Critical need customers such as hospitals and nursing homes are generally not included.

It is not known at this time how long the need for rotating outages will last.
Consumers and businesses are urged to reduce their electricity use to the lowest level possible, including these steps:
Limit electricity usage to only that consumption which is absolutely necessary. Turn off all unnecessary lights, appliances, and electronic equipment.

Businesses should minimize the use of electric lighting and electricity-consuming equipment as much as possible.
Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.

[snowman65]

Relax CC....take a deep breath......release.......aahhhh..remember, it's just weather....

[perk]

I can't deal with the panic today. I'm going to have to stay away from the computer.

**A WINTER STORM WATCH** is the most LIKELY to be issued for a couple of reasons. First, it's what my friend at HGX said. Second, there is considerable uncertainty in the amounts and precip type. Third, models still showing snow for Houston. Does anybody read the discussions anymore? Fourth, Winter Storm criteria here is very low (2" of snow) and since ice is now possible first, driving will be a disaster across Houston on Friday. Fifth, I'm in a grumpy mood---maybe because I went to bed at 1am and got up at 445am. I dunno. Forgive me.

well said CC...

Bravo.

[Paul]

http://www.khou.com/news/local/Official ... 93329.html

Officials: Statewide rolling power outages ordered to conserve energy
by khou.com staff
khou.com
Posted on February 2, 2011 at 7:06 AM
Updated today at 7:11 AM

HOUSTON—The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has instructed utilities to begin rotating outages to compensate for a generation shortage due to numerous plant trips that occurred because of the extreme weather.
Rotating outages are controlled, temporary interruptions of electric service, typically lasting 10-45 minutes per neighborhood. The locations and durations are determined by the local utilities. Critical need customers such as hospitals and nursing homes are generally not included.

It is not known at this time how long the need for rotating outages will last.
Consumers and businesses are urged to reduce their electricity use to the lowest level possible, including these steps:
Limit electricity usage to only that consumption which is absolutely necessary. Turn off all unnecessary lights, appliances, and electronic equipment.

Businesses should minimize the use of electric lighting and electricity-consuming equipment as much as possible.
Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.

I dont seem to recall rolling power outages in 89 or 96....you throw in wintry precip and this gets way worse....I wonder if that was what has ahppened in West U....

[srainhoutx]

http://www.khou.com/news/local/Official ... 93329.html

Officials: Statewide rolling power outages ordered to conserve energy
by khou.com staff
khou.com
Posted on February 2, 2011 at 7:06 AM
Updated today at 7:11 AM

HOUSTON—The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has instructed utilities to begin rotating outages to compensate for a generation shortage due to numerous plant trips that occurred because of the extreme weather.
Rotating outages are controlled, temporary interruptions of electric service, typically lasting 10-45 minutes per neighborhood. The locations and durations are determined by the local utilities. Critical need customers such as hospitals and nursing homes are generally not included.

It is not known at this time how long the need for rotating outages will last.
Consumers and businesses are urged to reduce their electricity use to the lowest level possible, including these steps:
Limit electricity usage to only that consumption which is absolutely necessary. Turn off all unnecessary lights, appliances, and electronic equipment.

Businesses should minimize the use of electric lighting and electricity-consuming equipment as much as possible.
Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.

I dont seem to recall rolling power outages in 89 or 96....you throw in wintry precip and this gets way worse....I wonder if that was what has ahppened in West U....

Portastorm just comfirmed the rolling blackout issue State Wide.

[srainhoutx]

I smell a Winter Storm Watch coming folks...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

TXZ229>234-239>247-022100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
634 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS PRODUCING A HARD FREEZE THIS MORNING...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...

A HARD FREEZE IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
LATE MORNING AND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S
TODAY. EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS PERSIST. HARD FREEZES
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DIP BACK
INTO THE 20S EACH NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY THURSDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
CURRENT WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SLIGHTLY MORE OR LESS MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE. THE GENERAL TREND IN WEATHER MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GIVEN THIS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION IN TRAVEL CONDITIONS
DUE TO SNOW AN ICE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CORPUS
CHRISTI REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT. VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CORPUSCHRISTI OR STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION...FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.

$$

[TexasMetBlake]

CHECK

THIS

OUT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZh1tSKHZdU

[snowman65]

CHECK

THIS

OUT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZh1tSKHZdU

lol...you would think the man had never heard thunder before.....