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srain wrote:

Some interesting trends over night via the longer range guidance. West Coast Ridge develops and the zonal flow ends with and big trough developing from the Plains on E. It is notable that the Sub Tropical Jet becomes active as the cold air plunges S from the Plains on E. The la la land GFS even hints of wintry mischief for the northern half of Texas. We will see. But a nice +PNA ridge and -EPO regime does appear in the works. Ridging looks to extend to the N Pole lending to an effective transport of cross Polar flow and strong Polar Vortex develops near the Great Lakes. All that cold in Alaska is flooded with warmth and the ever present vortex that has been present all winter season is finally displaced.


I had to go back to see if I accidentally clicked on the January thread. Something very similar was posted just like this the beginning of January.

redneckweather wrote:srain wrote:

Some interesting trends over night via the longer range guidance. West Coast Ridge develops and the zonal flow ends with and big trough developing from the Plains on E. It is notable that the Sub Tropical Jet becomes active as the cold air plunges S from the Plains on E. The la la land GFS even hints of wintry mischief for the northern half of Texas. We will see. But a nice +PNA ridge and -EPO regime does appear in the works. Ridging looks to extend to the N Pole lending to an effective transport of cross Polar flow and strong Polar Vortex develops near the Great Lakes. All that cold in Alaska is flooded with warmth and the ever present vortex that has been present all winter season is finally displaced.


I had to go back to see if I accidentally clicked on the January thread. Something very similar was posted just like this the beginning of January.

Record snowfall in Midland/Odessa and plentiful rains for our drought parched region in January. And your point is...?... Remember those CPC forecasts for 'hot and dry' issued last November? Those haven't 'panned out' too well have they...

LOVING that MJO graph with the forecast for a 7-8-1 phase.

I was just going to say, MontgomeryCoWx, that the MJO graphic which srain posted ... ah, what a beautiful thing!

Let's go, MJO!!

The MJO forecast is made by the same models that are clueless beyond 4-5 days. I recall similar posts 2 weeks ago talking about the favorable MJO phase that would bring some cold Arctic air down here by late January or early February. Not going to happen.

Wow, you killed this topic for over 3 hours.........

Sorry! Think I'll take off work early and go for a bike ride since I need to work 2-3 hrs a day this weekend to cover TC Iggy.

harpman wrote:Wow, you killed this topic for over 3 hours.........

LOL!!!!

I was going to say something similar as well. Srain gives us hopeful thoughts, then wxman57 gives his other side and just crushes our hope. But what you do say, is right for most part, you just really know how to kill this board of hopes and dreams! Haha

wxman57 wrote:The MJO forecast is made by the same models that are clueless beyond 4-5 days. I recall similar posts 2 weeks ago talking about the favorable MJO phase that would bring some cold Arctic air down here by late January or early February. Not going to happen.

Looks like we will close January was cool, but not freezing. February could either be cold or warm. We shall see.

srain wrote:


Record snowfall in Midland/Odessa and plentiful rains for our drought parched region in January. And your point is...?...


My point is...we don't live in the Midland/Odessa area...not even close actually. It was nice to have a couple of RAIN systems come through but we have not come even close to having REAL cold air this far south and WAY NOT EVEN CLOSE to having any wintry mischief down this way. All this talk/hype of arctic air coming down has been talked about since the beginning of January. Here we are fixing to go into February with no arctic air coming down in sight. That is my point.

Pete Delkus is one of the more well known mets here in Dallas. He periodically posts random musings on Facebook. Bad news for us Winter fans:

Pete Delkus
Here's something to think about.
There’s a good chance that the risk of a major Arctic blast moving into North Texas has ended. It can’t be completely ruled out but odds are strongly in favor that this type of a cold weather pattern will not happen for the remainder of this winter.
The weather pattern has kept the majority of the really cold Canadian air out of the U.S. for most of the winter weather. We did see cold air across the far northern U.S. about a week ago, but since then that really cold air has retreated back toward Alaska and we’ll likely see this trend continue over the next 10 days to two weeks as most of Canada see temps well above normal.
Since this is our source for arctic air (Canada) and the forecast weather pattern shows no sign of change, the risk for a significant Arctic push of cold air across the Lone Star State has just about evaporated.

As global temps remain warm, and likely get warmer, we'll have to rely on the Arctic dipole anomaly to give us the very cold temps, like the ones we had last Jan/Feb.

Or, the weather pattern could change in that we get a few Arctic waves, strong ones, come late next/into March with vengeance.

GFS seems to be hinting at "an important storm system" (as Larry Cosgrove would say) around February 12th or so.

weatherguy425 wrote:GFS seems to be hinting at "an important storm system" (as Larry Cosgrove would say) around February 12th or so.

Saw the same thing, I'm not even raising an eyebrow for it though. It's the GFS, c'mon now.
Post this again in about about 8-9 days, then I might start putting a smile on face...

It's just 2 weeks away just like recently hinted cold air 'outbreaks' the past month. I wouldn't bet on any big hard freezes anymore.

texoz wrote:As global temps remain warm, and likely get warmer, we'll have to rely on the Arctic dipole anomaly to give us the very cold temps, like the ones we had last Jan/Feb.

Global temps are cooler than normal right now

I'm done with this winter for the most part.....I'm ready for winter 2012-2013 ....bring on the "frigid cold" and the commencement of the "mini ice age"

But hopefully the world doesn't end before we experience our record breaking cold weather.......

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:

texoz wrote:As global temps remain warm, and likely get warmer, we'll have to rely on the Arctic dipole anomaly to give us the very cold temps, like the ones we had last Jan/Feb.

Global temps are cooler than normal right now

Uh, where are you getting that data? Link, please.

One more thing, 2011 was only the 11th warmest year, but it was the warmest La Nina year on record (1950-2011).

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/13

I know some follow LC closely. It seems he may have changed his mind a bit regarding the medium and long range after cancelling winter...

http://m.examiner.com/weather-in-housto ... -50-p-m-ct