May: Isolated Showers To End The Month

[nuby3]

power outages are possible but not likely. too much worry for not much risk IMO. relax.

[Paul Robison]

Is it NEVER going to end?

527
WWUS74 KHGX 030228
NPWHGX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
928 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.EXPECT TO SEE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-032100-
/O.EXT.KHGX.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-130503T2100Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...
HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
928 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2013

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FRIDAY...

* EVENT...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TONIGHT ONLY TO INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

* IMPACT...STRONG CROSS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EAST WEST
ORIENTED ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS.


They do seem to have backed off of "Possible Spotty Power Outages" for now.
IMPORTANT!: Is the strongest gust REALLY only going to be 35 mph or will it be a roaring 40 mph on friday just like thursday?

[srainhoutx]

RECORD EVENT REPORT...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
723 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2013

...GALVESTON SETS NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
AND FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY...

AS OF 700 AM CDT TODAY...THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT GALVESTON SCHOLES
FIELD HAS BEEN 50 DEGREES. THIS ESTABLISHES A NEW RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 3RD (OLD RECORD WAS 54 DEGREES SET IN
1876)...AND ALSO ESTABLISHES A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY (OLD RECORD WAS 52 DEGREES LAST SET ON MAY 4
1954).

[srainhoutx]

The overnight medium/long range guidance is beginning to advertise a rather strong upper low moving inland along the California Coast next week and traversing rather far S across Arizona and New Mexico toward the end of next week. With a return flow becoming established by next week across our Region and possibly some deep tropical moisture moving NW from the Western Caribbean, there may be a potential for some heavy rainfall and stronger storms developing near the 10th, +/- a couple of days. There are indications that below normal temps will continue into the mid May time frame as that slowly moving storm system passes off to the E. We will see.

[TexasBreeze]

That's plausible. As long as the sub-tropical upper ridge doesn't park over or near us. I don't think that will happen this summer though. IMO.

[wxman57]

I'm trying to look for a silver lining to this miserable Spring without much rain (IMBY, anyway) and no fun-derstorms.

The cold shelf waters never really socked us in, returning airmasses never had time to get juicy enough between frontal passages.

What if cold shelf waters heading into sea breeze season, which sort of starts in a few weeks, increases the temperature contrast between the sun baked generally bone dry land, and the cool Gulf waters, and provides sharper sea breeze boundaries moving in shore.

No idea if it works like that, actually, but I can't help my naturally optimistic nature.

I've measured 17.4" at my house so far in 2013. That's 4-5 inches above normal. Getting 7.4" in one day helped. Too bad only the Brays Bayou watershed got all the rain last month.

[ticka1]

loving my electricity bill this year -this time last year it was already $300

[mckinne63]

Loving these temps! I can't remember the last time I wore a long sleeve shirt and warm pants the day after my b'day! Winds could ease up a bit, but still loving the temps.

[nuby3]

I work outside for a living, and I couldn't be any happier. This weather RULES.

[srainhoutx]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
730 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED SO FAR TODAY AT COLLEGE STATION...

AS OF 730 AM...THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT COLLEGE STATION
HAS BEEN 46 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DATE OF 46 DEGREES SET IN 1944.

[srainhoutx]

The cool and pleasant weather of this weekend will begin to transition to that of warmer temps and E to SE winds off the Gulf by Tuesday. Increasing moisture will be the theme during the second half of the week as a slow moving storm system moves across Mexico and into Texas by next weekend bringing increased rain and storm chances for the second weekend of May.

[srainhoutx]

As we saw yesterday afternoon when elevated storms and high/mid level clouds rolled in from the W, a transition in the pattern is beginning. Currently an upper air disturbance is located near California and will begin to move inland and weaken. Embedded short wave disturbances will move beneath a developing Western trough and translate E into Texas this week into the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a couple of days of Slight Risk across W Central Texas and Oklahoma for Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture return looks to increase by late Thursday. Friday and Saturday look to be rather wet and stormy with additional disturbances cross the area. A ‘cold front’ should move into the Gulf on Sunday bringing cooler temps again, but not as ‘cold’ as the last front. The Climate Predication Center continues to forecast below normal temps as we head into the latter half of May as well.

The attachment 05072013 QPF Day 5 WPC p120i.gif is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Record cold for the last 4 days is ending. All time May monthly low temperature record was established Saturday morning at BUSH IAH of 42 degrees breaking the old record of 44. The 42 is the coldest low temperature ever recorded in the month of May. Surface high pressure responsible for the record cold is starting to shift eastward and this will allow winds to gradually veer around to the ESE and SE today. Very dry air mass in place will begin to moisten by the middle of the week as SE winds bring Gulf moisture into the state. Blocky pattern aloft currently with a large upper level storm over the SE US and the other off the CA coast will break down allowing the CA system to move inland and into the SW US.

This pattern will result in an increasingly SW flow aloft over the state by Thursday. Disturbances in the SW flow aloft along with increasing Gulf and Pacific moisture will result in slight rain chance son Thursday especially west of I-45 where moisture will be greatest. Ingredients appears to be coming together for a fairly active period of weather Friday-Saturday night. Slow moving cold front will be entering into central TX late Thursday and expect widespread convection along this boundary possibly entering into portions of SE TX on Friday. Continued moistening and heating of the air mass on Friday ahead of the slow moving cool front and approaching upper level disturbances from the SW spell a round of wet weather. Air mass will become increasingly unstable during the day with weak cap likely being removed by early to mid afternoon suggesting storms developing in the afternoon hours.

Cool front and continued disturbances crossing the area into Saturday with fairly high rain chances. Will have to see how Friday afternoon/evening weather plays out and this may have a somewhat big impact on Saturday storm development. Current model projections indicate this as a slow moving weather system with multiple rounds of strong to severe storms possible with heavy rainfall. Not favoring any area over another with respect to heavy rainfall potential at this point given the highly meso scale nature of the upcoming events. Think the frontal boundary will act as a decent focus for storms. Widespread amounts of 1-2 inches appear likely from late Thursday through early Sunday, but some significantly higher totals will be possible under any areas where cell training develops.

Cold front should move off the coast on Sunday with drier air filtering in from the north, but this air mass is not anywhere close to the intensity of the pass several fronts and do not see records lows behind this front…maybe summer is finally on its way!

[Paul Robison]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Record cold for the last 4 days is ending. All time May monthly low temperature record was established Saturday morning at BUSH IAH of 42 degrees breaking the old record of 44. The 42 is the coldest low temperature ever recorded in the month of May. Surface high pressure responsible for the record cold is starting to shift eastward and this will allow winds to gradually veer around to the ESE and SE today. Very dry air mass in place will begin to moisten by the middle of the week as SE winds bring Gulf moisture into the state. Blocky pattern aloft currently with a large upper level storm over the SE US and the other off the CA coast will break down allowing the CA system to move inland and into the SW US.

This pattern will result in an increasingly SW flow aloft over the state by Thursday. Disturbances in the SW flow aloft along with increasing Gulf and Pacific moisture will result in slight rain chance son Thursday especially west of I-45 where moisture will be greatest. Ingredients appears to be coming together for a fairly active period of weather Friday-Saturday night. Slow moving cold front will be entering into central TX late Thursday and expect widespread convection along this boundary possibly entering into portions of SE TX on Friday. Continued moistening and heating of the air mass on Friday ahead of the slow moving cool front and approaching upper level disturbances from the SW spell a round of wet weather. Air mass will become increasingly unstable during the day with weak cap likely being removed by early to mid afternoon suggesting storms developing in the afternoon hours.

Cool front and continued disturbances crossing the area into Saturday with fairly high rain chances. Will have to see how Friday afternoon/evening weather plays out and this may have a somewhat big impact on Saturday storm development. Current model projections indicate this as a slow moving weather system with multiple rounds of strong to severe storms possible with heavy rainfall. Not favoring any area over another with respect to heavy rainfall potential at this point given the highly meso scale nature of the upcoming events. Think the frontal boundary will act as a decent focus for storms. Widespread amounts of 1-2 inches appear likely from late Thursday through early Sunday, but some significantly higher totals will be possible under any areas where cell training develops.

Cold front should move off the coast on Sunday with drier air filtering in from the north, but this air mass is not anywhere close to the intensity of the pass several fronts and do not see records lows behind this front…maybe summer is finally on its way!

What kind of damage will this weather setup cause, Jeff? Anything like we saw on Christmas Day 2012?


P.S. According to current digital forecast, your worst showers and storms seem likely along and north of I-10, AS USUAL! (LoL)

[Ptarmigan]

Expires:201305080845;;863744
FPUS54 KHGX 080432
ZFPHGX
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1132 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2013

TXZ213-080845-
HARRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...PASADENA...
TOMBALL
1132 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2013
.REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE NIGHT THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT IN THE EVENING
INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT IN
THE MORNING INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS
AROUND 80.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 80.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
AROUND 60.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
$$

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/foreca ... txz213.txt

Looks to be a rainy Friday and Saturday.

[srainhoutx]

It does appear that severe storms will begin to develop across potions of Central Texas and translate E over the next couple of days. While the best chance for large hail and damaging winds associated with those severe storms appear to be near the Austin/San Antonio area, we will need to monitor just where the outflow boundaries set up over the next several days as moisture increases off the Gulf and moves inland setting the stage for a potential heavy rainfall event due to training storms from the Middle Texas Coast on E into Louisiana through Saturday.

Thursday:

Friday:

[tireman4]

Question to all:

I have a soccer game to coach at 9 am in Kingwood. The chances of us getting the game in are:

A) 0 percent
B) 25 percent
C) 50 percent
D) 75 percent
E) 100 percent


Thanks....

[srainhoutx]

^^
Since any rain/storm chances will likely be mesoscale driven, it is too soon to know with any real certainty just where and who will see the better chances of the heaviest rain as of today. I assume you are talking about Saturday?

[tireman4]

Yep, Saturday. The field is bone dry now, but if there is training Friday night and into Saturday, it could be a problem.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Moisture is on the increase across the region ahead of the next slow moving storm system currently over the SW US.

Blocky upper air pattern over the US is starting to break down with storm systems on both coasts and high pressure through the center of the nation. The pattern has broken and shifted enough to allow Gulf moisture to begin to return to the state of TX as clearly noted by the increase in surface dewpoints (into the 60’s) compared to the past several days in the 30’s and 40’s. Large upper level storm over the SW US will only slowly move eastward and then stop over the weekend and possibly drift back W late in the weekend as upper level ridging builds over the top of the low across the northern Rockies. The position of the upper level storm has increased the SW flow aloft over TX and upstream water vapor images show a plume of mid and high level moisture advancing toward Baja from the Pacific. It is likely that this plume of moisture also represents a few disturbances aloft that will cross MX and enter TX over the next 24-48 hours.

Ingredients are slowly coming together for a fairly active period of weather from late Thursday through potentially late Saturday. Will be clear up front that while the upper level pattern is slow moving, the meso scale influences will play a big part in the weather over the next several days. Air mass will continue to moisten with PWS rising to near 1.5 inches by late Thursday and the upper level jet splitting over S TX as the sub-tropical jet cores into the region. Heating over SW and C TX on Thursday along with a disturbance or two pulling out of MX and across the dryline will help to focus thunderstorm activity along the dryline and approaching frontal boundary over the Hill Country Thursday afternoon and evening. Shorter term models which barely reach this time period suggest a complex of storms developing between Midland and DFW and tracking ESE into SE TX overnight before weakening. Depending on how far south and how strong these storms are will help determine what happens on Friday. Heating of the unstable air mass on Friday should result in the development of numerous thunderstorms both along outflow boundaries from previous day storms, the frontal boundary sagging into the region from the north, and disturbances moving out of MX. PWS rise to near 1.5-1.7 inches on Friday and this will support a heavy rainfall threat especially along any slow moving boundaries or within locations of cell training. There will also be a severe weather threat with a fairly unstable air mass and modest shear. Main threats will be wind damage and large hail.

Expect Friday afternoon/evening convection to work over the air mass and deplete local moisture requiring air mass recovery on Saturday. Frontal boundary will be slowly moving across the region on Saturday and if the area can heat and recover from the previous day storms, may see another round on Saturday afternoon. Current thinking is that this round may be focused more near the coast or even offshore, but way too hard at this point to try and determine such fine scale details.

Looking at a promising 1-2 inches of rainfall from late Thursday through early Sunday across the region. Factors will be in place to support heavy rainfall including high moisture levels, slow moving low level boundaries, and potential cell training. Meso scale nature of the event will dictate on a short term hour by hour basis where the heaviest rains will fall, but would not be surprised to see a few locations total 3-5 inches in the time period.

Very little air mass change with this weak front so the warm and muggies will be around for a while.