February: Tracking Rain/Wintry Mix & Arctic Front

[Katdaddy]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...

TXZ213-021400-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0004.150202T0918Z-150202T1400Z/
HARRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...PASADENA...
TOMBALL
318 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING.

* EVENT...NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT THE
BAY.

* TIMING...THROUGH 8 AM.

* IMPACT...VEHICLES MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING LANES IF
TRAVELING ALONG EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ROADS AND OVERPASSES.
OUTDOOR EQUIPMENT NOT SECURED MAY BE LIFTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS.

[srainhoutx]

I see that rodent named Phil in Pennsylvania saw his shadow. 6 more weeks of Winter. I do wonder if that groundhog knows the difference between lighting from the media cameras and the actual sun though... That said it is a bit chilly out there today and we may see some frost tomorrow morning across our Northern Zones if the clouds do not move in too quickly this evening from the SW as that pesky upper low over Mexico finally shears out and heads East.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

MY FREEDOM FROM THE HELL OF TWN'S TWITTERLAND IS NEAR!!!

ENJOY YOUR COLD FOLKS!!! I REALLY HOPE YOUR POSTS ARE WRONG AND IT SNOWS DOWN THERE! BTW CYCLENALL IS CURRENTLY IMBIBING WHISKEY LAST I HEARD. PLEASE NOTE THAT I WANT A BLOOD ALCOHOL TEST DONE ON HIM BEFORE SEVERE STORM WX STARTS UP HERE!!!

[tireman4]

Boy if Wxman 57 is right about that Low in Alaska and not going anywhere soon, then Zonal Flow is what we will have for at least the first three weeks of February. Maybe the long range models will change..maybe....

[srainhoutx]

What sort of concerns me is the longer range NAEFS and GEFS as well as the operational GFS is suggesting we may flip back to a very chilly pattern with a trough digging across the Central and Eastern United States. The worrisome issue with such a pattern is the NW Flow from Alaska across Canada and a rather stout upper ('Polar Vortex') spinning across the Great Lakes Region. While it is way too soon to know with any certainty that such a pattern will develop mid February, it tends to raise an eyebrow as it has persisted the past several days via the guidance and may be worth monitoring. It is certainly chilly out there today, isn't it!

The attachment 02022015 12Z naefs_namer_312_2m_temp.gif is no longer available

[ticka1]

Boy if Wxman 57 is right about that Low in Alaska and not going anywhere soon, then Zonal Flow is what we will have for at least the first three weeks of February. Maybe the long range models will change..maybe....

what did wxman say? can you explain -had veritigo over the weekend and didnt do any reading

[Heat Miser]

Zonal flow west to east, at least to me, means moderate weather with no extremely cold temps. It's chilly out there now, but nothing too extreme.

[jasons2k]

I see another bust for tonight coming (forecast low of 32). Looks pretty cloudy if you ask me. I'm going to gamble and leave the plants alone.

[Ptarmigan]

What sort of concerns me is the longer range NAEFS and GEFS as well as the operational GFS is suggesting we may flip back to a very chilly pattern with a trough digging across the Central and Eastern United States. The worrisome issue with such a pattern is the NW Flow from Alaska across Canada and a rather stout upper ('Polar Vortex') spinning across the Great Lakes Region. While it is way too soon to know with any certainty that such a pattern will develop mid February, it tends to raise an eyebrow as it has persisted the past several days via the guidance and may be worth monitoring. It is certainly chilly out there today, isn't it!

02022015 12Z naefs_namer_312_2m_temp.gif

02022015 12Z gefs-mnsprd_namer_312_2m_temp.gif

02022015 12Z GFS gfs_namer_312_500_vort_ht.gif

There have been some big freezes in mid February like in 1895 and 1899.

[Katdaddy]

Radar displays light rain moving into SE TX this morning with most of it not reaching the ground yet. Expect light rain to increase in coverage during the day into tonight. Not expecting much accumulation but it will make for a messy cold day with highs in the 40s. Rain chances decrease as the upper level low and frontal system move E of SE TX Wednesday and Thursday morning.

[snowman65]

I don't usually put too much into the whole groundhog day thing, but I do believe this year the groundhog may have bit off a little more than he can chew (literally...LOL). If you have seen the video you know what I'm talking about....

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

An upper level storm system over Mexico will cross southern TX today.

At the surface a dry low level air mass is in place with dewpoints in the 20’s and 30’s and temperatures in the 30’s a40’s with light ENE winds. An upper level storm system over Mexico will move across S TX and into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. Mid and high level clouds area already in place with a fair amount of reflectivity showing on local radars. Much of what is showing on the radar is not reaching the ground per surface observations and this is due to a very dry sub cloud layer resulting in extensive evaporation.

Air mass especially south of I-10 should gradually moisten today with an increasing amount of rainfall reaching the ground by mid to late afternoon into the evening hours. Expect the heaviest rainfall to remain offshore over the Gulf waters near the track of an offshore surface low. Rainfall amounts will average .25 to .50 of an inch south of US 59 to less than .25 of an inch north of I-10. Temperatures will struggle to reach 50 today under clouds and light rain.

Upper storm system clears eastward Wednesday afternoon after morning showers and expect a return of sun and warming trend Thursday-the weekend. Lows will warm into the 40’s and 50’s by Saturday under increasingly southerly flow with highs pushing the mid 70’s Saturday and nearly 80 on Sunday. Looking to be another stretch of mild and rain free weather Thursday-early next week.

[BlueJay]

I see another bust for tonight coming (forecast low of 32). Looks pretty cloudy if you ask me. I'm going to gamble and leave the plants alone.

You were right, jasons. Our low was 40 this morning.
I'm not complaining!

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I had a low of 40 as well. 8-degree bust. I'm not complaining either

[srainhoutx]

The pesky upper low is on the move near San Antonio and should slide East ending our rain chances later today. A cold front arrives on Thursday that should clear us out and bring low temperatures in the 30's with highs in the 50's.

The weekend looks fantastic to start Mardi Gras Celebrations with warmer temperatures and mostly clear skies.

[wxman57]

Here are some meteograms I made off the 12Z GFS run. Near normal in the short term and a bit above normal by mid month. Not a lot of rain the next few weeks. Sunny and 70s for this weekend (a bit warmer than the 2m raw temps below indicate).

[snowman65]

What sort of concerns me is the longer range NAEFS and GEFS as well as the operational GFS is suggesting we may flip back to a very chilly pattern with a trough digging across the Central and Eastern United States. The worrisome issue with such a pattern is the NW Flow from Alaska across Canada and a rather stout upper ('Polar Vortex') spinning across the Great Lakes Region. While it is way too soon to know with any certainty that such a pattern will develop mid February, it tends to raise an eyebrow as it has persisted the past several days via the guidance and may be worth monitoring. It is certainly chilly out there today, isn't it!

02022015 12Z naefs_namer_312_2m_temp.gif

02022015 12Z gefs-mnsprd_namer_312_2m_temp.gif

02022015 12Z GFS gfs_namer_312_500_vort_ht.gif

So much for this. That sure did change fast...

[srainhoutx]

So much for this. That sure did change fast...

Oh it's still there...

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a lot of reports of freezing drizzle continuing this morning across N Central Texas as far S as Corsicana and Meridian. No travel issues reported, but a thin coating of ice on metal objects and elevated surfaces have been reported across the Metroplex.

[srainhoutx]

So much for that predicted high of the mid 50's today because of the 'weak' cold front. Temperature has dropped to 39F in NW Harris County with drizzle and mist.