Wx Infinity Forums

loving the cloud cover for lawn work this morning, however brief it may be

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

jasons wrote:I sure hope we get some rain on Sunday. It will be our last chance for a long time.

From today's NWS AFD:

We`ll be watching a weak front that`ll sag into se Tx during the day Sunday. PW`s pool to around 2" right along the boundary. During the late afternoon and evening hours there`s a possibility that the seabreeze and the front "collide" somewhere across the southern half of se Tx. Whether or not there will be enough convergence to overcome the cap remains to be seen. But if it does, chances are that any storms that do pop may be strong/severe with winds being primary threat. Most favorable timeframe should this happen looks to be 3-9pm or so.

NWS has us down to cloudy on Sunday and 20% on Monday. I'm not holding my breath.

Rain chances are bumped up a tad Sunday and Monday for northern counties


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected through 09z. An outflow
boundary will approach northern TAF sites around 12z and this
feature could generate a few early morning showers. A brief
window of MVFR ceilings will be possible between 13-16z with skies
clearing by mid/late morning. A cold front over North Texas will
move slowly south tonight and approach the region by mid day
Sunday. The actual front will arrive around 21z and the combination
of the front and peak heating will set the stage for afternoon
thunderstorms. Fcst soundings show a lot of instability with CAPE
values over 3000 J/Kg and lapse rates near 7.0 C. Soundings also
show an inverted V signature so would expect the stronger storms
will produce some gusty winds. Have added a Prob30 for northern
TAF sites, generally north of I-10. Will start with a VCTS for the
Houston terminals and keep the coast dry. Some disparity in the
solutions for Sunday night and will lean toward the drier GFS
solution for now. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018/

UPDATE...
Surface analysis shows a cold front stretching from Presidio to
San Angelo to Gainesville this evening. Modest forcing along the
front has been able to initiate a few thunderstorms along this
boundary this evening, but increasing stability with nocturnal
cooling has made it difficult for this activity to maintain itself
and regional radar trends show this convection weakening as the
front sags south. Latest high resolution guidance shows enough
forcing will persist along the surface front for additional weak
development to occur near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
regions early Sunday morning and have maintained the 20-30 PoPs
for these areas in response. Similar to last night, anvil debris
from the ongoing storms along the front may drift across Southeast
Texas with a weakening surface pressure gradient promoting patchy
fog development outside of Houston.

Preliminary inspection of 00Z guidance continues to raise
concerns for a potential damaging wind threat late Sunday
afternoon and evening as diurnal heating promotes another round of
thunderstorms along the front. Guidance continues to advertise
the front`s location as somewhere north of Interstate 10. Surface
to 600 MB theta-e deficits exceed 30 K in most areas north of a
Brenham to Cleveland line during the late afternoon (which can
indicate the presence of a layer of dry air in the atmosphere that
is favorable for producing large negative buoyancy from
evaporative cooling) and this, coupled with steep mid-level lapse
rates (greater than 6.8 C/km) and inverted-V profiles on forecast
soundings indicate that thunderstorms will be capable of strong
downbursts. Forecast soundings also show mean wind profiles of 10
knots or less, indicating that storms will be very slow-moving.
The slow-moving nature of the storms combined with ample
atmospheric moisture swept south into the region ahead of the
front will mean that isolated 1-3 inch rainfall amounts will be
possible. Should a pronounced cold pool develop with any of this
activity, thunderstorms may be able to propagate farther south
towards the Houston metro by early evening.

Huffman


Irrational exuberance on TWC.

Radar shows some sort of boundary draped across northern Montgomery County pushing south...

jasons wrote:Radar shows some sort of boundary draped across northern Montgomery County pushing south...

moving west almost as fast as south

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

Come to Mama, Rain!

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Weak frontal boundary will drift into the area this afternoon with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible.

Air mass will heat quickly this morning into the early afternoon hours ahead of a weak cool front which will arrive into SE TX neat maximum heating. Moisture will pool along this boundary and the air mass will become very unstable over the region with CAPE values of 3500-5000 J/kg by late afternoon. Expect surface convergence along the boundary to result in isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms that develop over the Lake Livingston region and move SW/SSW across at least the northern half of the region this afternoon and evening.

Primary threat will be strong damaging winds as these storms and their resultant cool outflow clash with the very warm mid 90 degree heat over the region by mid to late afternoon. SSW moving outflow boundaries may also collide with the NNW moving seabreeze front somewhere either side of I-10 late this afternoon producing an enhancement of the storms. Moisture levels are high and very heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches in an hour or less will be possible with these storms, but the isolated nature should preclude any significant flooding threat.

Front remains stalled across the area on Monday into Tuesday and a fairy strong disturbance will move out of New Mexico and across TX late Monday and Tuesday. This may result in a large complex of thunderstorms over W TX that moves eastward late Monday into Tuesday. With the upper level ridge remaining to our SW for the next 48-72 hours…the area will have the potential for disturbances aloft to interact with the surface front or the seabreeze to produce showers and thunderstorms over mainly the central and northern portions of the area.

Upper level ridging attempts to build back over the area by mid week, but SE TX looks to be on the eastern side of the ridge and any disturbances moving S/SSW in the N/NNE upper level flow could produce thunderstorms over E TX/W LA that manage to drift into at least the eastern sections of the area (E of I-45).

heat index is currently 106 here - please come this way

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md0635.html

5pm and so far not at all impressed.

Most of the storms are WAY east at 5 pm. Probably just going to be a scorcher.

Yup.

Maybe not

It could become interesting later this evening and tonight. Keep watching the storms moving SW into SE TX for the next several hours.

Very impressive on satellite.

If you believe the 22Z HRRR is correct, Harris County and possibly Brenham may see storms before the evening is done.

From the HOU-GAL NWS.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
716 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Trinity County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Polk County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 815 PM CDT.

* At 715 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Chester to 9 miles east of Alabama-Coushatta
Reservation to near Votaw, moving west at 15 mph. Additional
storms may develop in the warning area. Similar storms near Orange
produced wind damage.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Livingston, Shepherd, Corrigan, Goodrich, North
Cleveland, Seven Oaks, Lake Livingston State Park,
Alabama-Coushatta Reservation, West Livingston, Leggett, Moscow,
Tarkington Prairie, Segno, Romayor and Rye.

srainhoutx wrote:If you believe the 22Z HRRR is correct, Harris County and possibly Brenham may see storms before the evening is done.

We may be close - between Navasota and CLL should be the northern tip.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/G ... &length=24

Texas Storm Chasers in Beaumont tonight

https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers

what I wouldn't give not to have to water the lawn tomorrow - please no hail though