Re: October 2020
Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:25 pm
000
FXUS64 KHGX 031959
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
259 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020
.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...
High pressure remains dominate over the region through tonight
with light winds and clear skies. The dewpoint depression across
the northern Brazos Valley tonight looks to get fairly minimal, so
there may be some patchy fog developing in low lying areas. There
will be an increase of high clouds during the day on Sunday as a
weak upper level low and associated cold front moves through the
region. This FROPA won`t really be that noticeable other than a
wind shift and a reinforcement of dry and cool air. Some CAM
guidance is showing some very light, isolated showers popping up
in Polk and Liberty counties Sunday evening with the FROPA, but if
these were to materialize, I believe they will be mainly just
some virga.
Temperatures through the short term will be similar to what we`ve
seen the past few days. Daytime highs in the low to mid 80s with
overnight lows in the low 60s (Galveston may stick to near 70 as
ocean temperatures remain in the upper 70s to low 80s).
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Saturday]...
Surface high pressure makes a return on Monday after Sunday
night`s FROPA continuing the stretch of dry, pleasant weather
through midweek. The tropics may be making a lot of noise by
midweek, but as of right now SE Texas` chances of direct impacts.
Mariners should continue to monitor the forecast in the coming
days as swells and seas will be increasing thanks to the active
tropics (more on that in the Marine section below). By the middle
of next week, Tropical Storm Gamma should still be in the Bay of
Campeche/southern Gulf, and there may be another tropical system
trying to get its act together in the eastern Gulf. Our region
should remain fairly protected from these systems as the surface
high pressure remains over Texas and an upper level jetstreak over
SE Texas should help to shear away any tropical moisture headed
our way. Though we will continue to monitor the tropics, and the
current flare up in the tropics should serve as a reminder that
this (very active) hurricane season is still ongoing.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly benign conditions for the next couple days with light winds
and low seas prevailing. TS Gamma should linger around the Yucatan
and Bay of Campeche into the midweek time period. Northeasterly
flow should mostly prevail into midweek, if not longer, across the
upper Texas coastal waters. Swells associated with Gamma should
be filling into the region as we head into Tue/Wed and a
combination of SCEC/SCA flags (& higher rip current risk) may
eventually be warranted. In addition, water levels will be running
above normal so will also need to begin keeping an eye on the
potential for minor coastal flooding around times of high tide
going into that same time period. Seas/water levels may remain
elevated into the second half of the work week should the
disturbance in the cntl Caribbean make its way into the Gulf as
several models currently advertise. 47
&&
.TROPICAL...
Tropical Storm Gamma was nearing hurricane strength as it made
landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula shortly before noon.
It is expected to meander around the tip of the Peninsula through
the weekend and its strength will depend on the amount of land
interaction it has. Gamma is expected to drift into the Southern
Gulf and Bay of Campeche through next week while maintaining
tropical storm strength.
The next area of potential tropical development, which the NHC has
been monitoring the past few days, is in the southern Caribbean
right now and is expected to move towards the western Caribbean in
the next few days. It now has a 30 percent chance of formation in
the next two days, and a 60 percent chance of formation in the next
five day. It is expected to eventually move into the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico by next week.
Two other areas that the NHC is monitoring are out in the Atlantic.
The more northern tropical wave is located near 30N and has a 10
percent chance of formation within the next five days. The more
southern tropical wave is located near 10N, and has a 20 percent
chance of formation in the next five days. Both of these systems are
expected to move into an area of strong upper level winds which will
inhibit development.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 84 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 60 86 62 84 62 / 0 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 82 69 80 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 031959
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
259 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020
.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...
High pressure remains dominate over the region through tonight
with light winds and clear skies. The dewpoint depression across
the northern Brazos Valley tonight looks to get fairly minimal, so
there may be some patchy fog developing in low lying areas. There
will be an increase of high clouds during the day on Sunday as a
weak upper level low and associated cold front moves through the
region. This FROPA won`t really be that noticeable other than a
wind shift and a reinforcement of dry and cool air. Some CAM
guidance is showing some very light, isolated showers popping up
in Polk and Liberty counties Sunday evening with the FROPA, but if
these were to materialize, I believe they will be mainly just
some virga.
Temperatures through the short term will be similar to what we`ve
seen the past few days. Daytime highs in the low to mid 80s with
overnight lows in the low 60s (Galveston may stick to near 70 as
ocean temperatures remain in the upper 70s to low 80s).
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Saturday]...
Surface high pressure makes a return on Monday after Sunday
night`s FROPA continuing the stretch of dry, pleasant weather
through midweek. The tropics may be making a lot of noise by
midweek, but as of right now SE Texas` chances of direct impacts.
Mariners should continue to monitor the forecast in the coming
days as swells and seas will be increasing thanks to the active
tropics (more on that in the Marine section below). By the middle
of next week, Tropical Storm Gamma should still be in the Bay of
Campeche/southern Gulf, and there may be another tropical system
trying to get its act together in the eastern Gulf. Our region
should remain fairly protected from these systems as the surface
high pressure remains over Texas and an upper level jetstreak over
SE Texas should help to shear away any tropical moisture headed
our way. Though we will continue to monitor the tropics, and the
current flare up in the tropics should serve as a reminder that
this (very active) hurricane season is still ongoing.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly benign conditions for the next couple days with light winds
and low seas prevailing. TS Gamma should linger around the Yucatan
and Bay of Campeche into the midweek time period. Northeasterly
flow should mostly prevail into midweek, if not longer, across the
upper Texas coastal waters. Swells associated with Gamma should
be filling into the region as we head into Tue/Wed and a
combination of SCEC/SCA flags (& higher rip current risk) may
eventually be warranted. In addition, water levels will be running
above normal so will also need to begin keeping an eye on the
potential for minor coastal flooding around times of high tide
going into that same time period. Seas/water levels may remain
elevated into the second half of the work week should the
disturbance in the cntl Caribbean make its way into the Gulf as
several models currently advertise. 47
&&
.TROPICAL...
Tropical Storm Gamma was nearing hurricane strength as it made
landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula shortly before noon.
It is expected to meander around the tip of the Peninsula through
the weekend and its strength will depend on the amount of land
interaction it has. Gamma is expected to drift into the Southern
Gulf and Bay of Campeche through next week while maintaining
tropical storm strength.
The next area of potential tropical development, which the NHC has
been monitoring the past few days, is in the southern Caribbean
right now and is expected to move towards the western Caribbean in
the next few days. It now has a 30 percent chance of formation in
the next two days, and a 60 percent chance of formation in the next
five day. It is expected to eventually move into the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico by next week.
Two other areas that the NHC is monitoring are out in the Atlantic.
The more northern tropical wave is located near 30N and has a 10
percent chance of formation within the next five days. The more
southern tropical wave is located near 10N, and has a 20 percent
chance of formation in the next five days. Both of these systems are
expected to move into an area of strong upper level winds which will
inhibit development.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 84 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 60 86 62 84 62 / 0 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 82 69 80 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$