Re: September 2021
Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:44 pm
sambucol its possible it could, but it also might not either depending on *IF* something forms
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The models also just recently overestimated the strength of the ridge with Ida, as she was originally supposed to head into Mexico. I am not buying into a strong ridge setup yet.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:44 pm sambucol its possible it could, but it also might not either depending on *IF* something forms
Thank you.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:09 am There are big question marks on where, if, when a system will form let along what the steering patten would be. But, the ridge modeled on that image is not a sure bet to protect us on that model run; centered too far north.
The models miss the timing re-establishing the ridge by a couple of days. That gap is where Ida has snuck into LA.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 12:26 amThe models also just recently overestimated the strength of the ridge with Ida, as she was originally supposed to head into Mexico. I am not buying into a strong ridge setup yet.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:44 pm sambucol its possible it could, but it also might not either depending on *IF* something forms
Is the system it’s showing a hurricane?TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 12:40 pm Models show a trailing trough from future remnant Ida reaching the coast giving some areas rain this week.
CMC and GFS 12z shows a system on our coastline hr 216 and 240. 7th and 8th of Sept.
And ensemble guidance (more important at this stage) all over the place; Mexico to Florida. A lot to iron out over the next seven to ten days.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:01 pm CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week
That sounds a lot like the precursor to the storm we are watching right now. I could be wrong, but I just do not think that the season is over for Texas yet.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:18 pmAnd ensemble guidance (more important at this stage) all over the place; Mexico to Florida. A lot to iron out over the next seven to ten days.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:01 pm CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week
Risk really doesn’t start lessening (historically) until October.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:49 pmThat sounds a lot like the precursor to the storm we are watching right now. I could be wrong, but I just do not think that the season is over for Texas yet.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:18 pmAnd ensemble guidance (more important at this stage) all over the place; Mexico to Florida. A lot to iron out over the next seven to ten days.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:01 pm CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week
I was literally just about to post that lol you beat me to it.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:23 pm The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.
Y'all just stop this nonsense! We have a bay house on Carancahua Bay and would love to have the house stay there! Really stressed hearing Port Alto on the news about a possible Ida landfall. But, in reality, we know the possibilities. Praying that Texas stays safe this year and years to comecaptainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:23 pm The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.
Lol. I guess I need to take a break from model watching, but I was really expecting Ida to originally be a Texas storm. I am glad it was not, but now my alarm bells are going off so I am constantly looking for new threats. HahaCpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:27 pmI was literally just about to post that lol you beat me to it.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:23 pm The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.