Wx Infinity Forums

The Climate Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of Way below Normal Temperatures Next week for my area

Noaa’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks sure do look nice

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:02 pm Noaa’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks sure do look nice

Not too shabby! The sweating can hold off a wee bit longer hopefully.

Cpv17 yup looks like winter is making one final stand! Gladly will take it as we know a few months of misery is just around the corner

18z GFS looks beautiful beginning late next week.

Hey everyone. It has been a while. Wow, this winter sure had some nice cold weather. I counted about 15 freezes between January to March at my location, which is a lot more than average. Concerning rainfall, it has been rather dry so far. While I know a lot of people are calling for a drought this spring, I am not ready to buy. March is typically a dry month in itself. Often, rainfall can be one inch or less. Also, Houston recorded its 5th wettest January this year. ENSO does typically play a part in our spring weather, but I would not be shocked to see a similar pattern to last year: dry at the start of spring, then wet later.

Beautiful!!

I just spent the last 3 days planting my garden. Sounds like time and $$$ wasted.

jabcwb2 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:14 pm I just spent the last 3 days planting my garden. Sounds like time and $$$ wasted.

Cpv17 thats a bit of a surprise, I was anticipating maybe a slight risk for hazardous temps but they have us at a moderate/high chance

It is worth noting that March has produced 20s for lows numerous times, even low 20s. For example, 1923 featured a record low of 21 at Lake Charles Regional Airport. 1922 featured a record low of 20 at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Beaumont for the month of March. The all-time record low for Houston (IAH) is 21 for March on the 3rd in 1923 like Lake Charles. Mid-20s for lows have also been recorded for Houston (IAH) as late as March 20th in the past.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_mar

https://www.weather.gov/lch/bptnormmar3

https://www.weather.gov/lch/lchnormmar3

Captainbarbossa19 plus we all saw how poorly the global models handled the arctic air from last week, with the CPC issuing a moderate risk for hazardous temps for us, definitely will be interesting to see how this forecast evolves

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:31 pm It is worth noting that March has produced 20s for lows numerous times, even low 20s. For example, 1923 featured a record low of 21 at Lake Charles Regional Airport. 1922 featured a record low of 20 at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Beaumont for the month of March. The all-time record low for Houston (IAH) is 21 for March on the 3rd in 1923 like Lake Charles. Mid-20s for lows have also been recorded for Houston (IAH) as late as March 20th in the past.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_mar

https://www.weather.gov/lch/bptnormmar3

https://www.weather.gov/lch/lchnormmar3

Check out how cold it got in early March of 2002.

No need to hyperventilate just yet over losing your garden. Keep in mind by the time we reach March 15th, the normal low at IAH is 54 and the normal high is 74.

A low of 40 would be considered "much below normal" by then.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:22 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:31 pm It is worth noting that March has produced 20s for lows numerous times, even low 20s. For example, 1923 featured a record low of 21 at Lake Charles Regional Airport. 1922 featured a record low of 20 at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Beaumont for the month of March. The all-time record low for Houston (IAH) is 21 for March on the 3rd in 1923 like Lake Charles. Mid-20s for lows have also been recorded for Houston (IAH) as late as March 20th in the past.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_mar

https://www.weather.gov/lch/bptnormmar3

https://www.weather.gov/lch/lchnormmar3

Check out how cold it got in early March of 2002.

Or in March 1989.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:42 pm Captainbarbossa19 plus we all saw how poorly the global models handled the arctic air from last week, with the CPC issuing a moderate risk for hazardous temps for us, definitely will be interesting to see how this forecast evolves

Right, I do not trust the models at all. That is why I am also not buying the climate models for spring forecasts.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:28 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:22 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:31 pm It is worth noting that March has produced 20s for lows numerous times, even low 20s. For example, 1923 featured a record low of 21 at Lake Charles Regional Airport. 1922 featured a record low of 20 at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Beaumont for the month of March. The all-time record low for Houston (IAH) is 21 for March on the 3rd in 1923 like Lake Charles. Mid-20s for lows have also been recorded for Houston (IAH) as late as March 20th in the past.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_mar

https://www.weather.gov/lch/bptnormmar3

https://www.weather.gov/lch/lchnormmar3

Check out how cold it got in early March of 2002.

Or in March 1989.

Right. Many forget the while meteorological spring starts traditionally on March 1st, winter often goes on until around the official first day of spring. I have noticed that many trees are budding later than normal this year. Also the pecan trees, which are said to tell when it's finally spring, are still very dormant where I am.

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:33 pm Right. Many forget the while meteorological spring starts traditionally on March 1st, winter often goes on until around the official first day of spring.

I’m not sure who these “many” are you are referring to. Pro-mets and informed amateurs, like the members of this board - the folks who actually know what the meteorological spring is in the first place - are well aware we can have freezes deep into March. And the general public marks the beginning of Spring according to the lunar calendar, which will occur on March 20th, the day that every printed wall calendar has “First day of Spring” on it.

We do have to watch the system late next week/next weekend. I don’t know that we’ll hit freezing (at 2 meters) in Houston, but we could be looking at a widespread frost event, so freeze/frost protection might be needed for anyone with tender vegetation or new plantings.

We could get a statewide winter storm with this setup if the trough digs south enough.Or if we can get a Anafront setup from isentropic lift and forcing. Air will be cold enough and deep enough to support one if the models are right.Another thing to note is the front looks to be a strong reinforcing shot of arctic air.As models show a moderate front moving in earlier in the week before the stronger front gets here.