September Weather Discussion

[srainhoutx]

Strong rain band moving NW from our SE Metro area. Folks in Dickinson, League City, Pearland, Clear Lake, Seabrooke, Kemah watch out for some gusty winds.

[srainhoutx]

Tonado Watch issued from Victoria County to S TX...

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 645
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     800 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
     
     TORNADO WATCH 645 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-
     489-071000-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0645.100907T0100Z-100907T1000Z/
     
     TX 
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ARANSAS              BEE                 BROOKS              
     CALHOUN              CAMERON             GOLIAD              
     HIDALGO              JIM WELLS           KENEDY              
     KLEBERG              LIVE OAK            NUECES              
     REFUGIO              SAN PATRICIO        VICTORIA            
     WILLACY              
     

[srainhoutx]

Worrisome to see the rain shield to our W beginning to move a bit E throughout the early morning hours. Flash Flood Watches are still in affect roughly W of I-45. Tornado Watch is in affect as wellfor or S and Western Counties. Could be a rough day locally.

[ticka1]

Looks like the forecast for this weekend is rain and cooler temps!

Had light fog this morning on the east side of town - another sign that the seasons are changing! YEA!

[TexasMetBlake]

Yesterday, I noticed that the 12z gfs had depicted our first significant cold front moving into Houston by the end of the month (about 10 days from now). At 268 hours, it should a strong front moving in with associated squall line. Behind the front, heights collapse as a very cool airmass (1032 mb High) drops in with the 0c line pushing into Kansas. 2-m temps are shown to be in the 40s for most of Houston (north of I-10 especially) with 50s to the coast. Today, the models have backed off that a bit, but will need to watch for developing trends. The thought of a cold front and ending this horrible, dreadful summer brings a smile to my face!

[redneckweather]

Music to my ears! Keep the updates coming and much appreciated CC!

[Baseballdude2915]

Been holding together quite nicely for about 4 or 5 runs now. Pretty impressive for our first one.
It will probably will end up being a nice hot humid day knowing the GFS 2 weeks out. But what if?

[Andrew]

I personally doubt it will happen. Usually it takes a couple of gfs "cold fronts" before we actually get one. I think we could see a front that is a probable, but to get into the 50's and 40's eh I am not holding my breath. Especially for Houston.

[TexasMetBlake]

Well getting into the 40s by the end of September is not unheard of though it is unlikely. I think the earliest 40s at IAH was Sept. 22 (Is that right, Mr. T? LOL). While this does seem a bit strong for being so early, it does have some model consistency. Let's just watch and wait.

[Andrew]

Well getting into the 40s by the end of September is not unheard of though it is unlikely. I think the earliest 40s at IAH was Sept. 22 (Is that right, Mr. T? LOL). While this does seem a bit strong for being so early, it does have some model consistency. Let's just watch and wait.

Haha yea Mr. T? We need you back... Yea I hope. I have just been burned in the past from getting excited for a possible strong trough with no results.

[TexasMetBlake]

From San Angelo: (short and sweet)

MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST.

[Ptarmigan]

Our stats specialist will step in. Let's see when we see our first 50's day which would be the first cold front. This is from IAH from 1969 to 2009.

Mean
September 26th

Standard Deviation
10.568361

Median
September 25th

Earliest
September 4, 1974

Latest
October 19, 2007

[Baseballdude2915]

GFS lost it for the 18z. Maybe it will come back from the dead here in a couple runs.
Typical GFS would put it about 2 or 3 days later.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

TXC039-167-171845-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0081.100917T1645Z-100917T1845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
1145 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1144 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PORT BOLIVAR TO
HITCHCOCK TO ANGLETON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTIES. AT 1140 AM...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED
STREET FLOODING IN ANGLETON.

[Andrew]

Just north of austin right now and have received a lot of rain. I would guess 2-3 inch in a short period of time with a lot of flooded roads.

[TexasMetBlake]

Seems as though the models have backed off the strength of the high/front coming in. The 18z this afternoon indicates a much weaker front around the same time period. It is rare to go through the entire month of September without a front. Not saying it can't happen, but I still suspect some kind of front will make it here around the 29th.

[Mr. T]

Seems as though the models have backed off the strength of the high/front coming in. The 18z this afternoon indicates a much weaker front around the same time period. It is rare to go through the entire month of September without a front. Not saying it can't happen, but I still suspect some kind of front will make it here around the 29th.

Not with this kind of pattern it won't

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

[srainhoutx]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

TXZ210>214-226-227-235>238-181915-
COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-
MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...
SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

.NOW...
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST AND WEST INLAND...AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR TEXAS
CITY...TO IOWA COLONY TO NEEDVILLE TO EAGLE LAKE TO EDNA.
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST FROM PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

[djjordan]

I've gotten a few pretty decent downpours already today here in First Colony ..... The yard is appreciating that.

[djjordan]

Don't know about any of you .... but I think Mario's forcast for Sunday is gonna be a bust ..... looking at radar trends and satellite ... I'm thinking Mostly Sunny is not gonna happen especially in the SW portion of the CWA ...... Mostly Cloudy with scattered showers looks like a better bet.