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Tropical Weather Statements
416
NOUS42 KNHC 241300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT TUE 24 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8-HR RESEARCH
MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AT 38,000 FT.
TAKEOFF TIME IS 24/1400Z.

I'll have to double check but I think that flight was for the GRIP project and not related to anything brewing in the Gulf.

Scott747 wrote:I'll have to double check but I think that flight was for the GRIP project and not related to anything brewing in the Gulf.

Now that I think about it, it may actually have something to do with the potential feature. The 'G' in GRIP stands for Genesis. Duh!

Morning AFD from Corpus Christi, Houston and Lake Charles...

CRP:

THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE WEEKEND
FORECAST AS 12Z AND 00Z MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN WET/DRY SOLUTIONS. AND MUCH OF THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS ON
WHETHER A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
NW GULF. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF NOW KEEP THE
SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE THIS WEAK FEATURE INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS A WET FORECAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z
NAM DEVELOP A T.D. AND MOVE IT NWD TOWARD THE PALACIOUS AREA WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS KEEPING THE MID
COAST MOSTLY DRY. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INDICATE CHC POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF
AN THE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION PANS OUT IT WILL BE A WET WEEKEND WITH HVY
RAIN PSBL. BUT IF A LOW DVLPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER COAST WE
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. EXPECT CHC OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ALOFT AND PWS REMAIN ABOVE 2
INCHES.

HGX:

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS TO
NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATE THIS WEEK
AND PUSH INLAND SATURDAY BRINGING A DEEP MOIST LAYER OVER OUR
REGION ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW. SPEED CONVERGENCE NEAR COASTAL REGION
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS COMING WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BE SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM THE UPPER
80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

LCH:

INVERTED TROF OVER THE WESTERN GULF MIGRATES WEST AND NORTHWEST
WITH ACCOMPANYING ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND NORTH TO NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND. WILL
TREND POPS TO LOWER AND MORE SEASONAL LEVELS GOING INTO THE WORKWEEK.

Surface Analysis Chart...

Watching E of Brownsville...

It looks pretty "prime" out there.

This place is dead, I figured it would be jumping right now.

12Z GFS suggests a weak surface low in S TX on Saturday...

2 PM TWO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Please bring us rain! I promise I won't complain.

ticka1 wrote:Please bring us rain! I promise I won't complain.

Sure.....Ticka.. sure....LOL

HGX is not impressed...but we shall see...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO SE
TX THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MODELS SHOW
THE DRIER AIR GENERALLY REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF NUDGING ITS WAY TOWARD
THE COAST. THOUGHT THAT THE NAM WAS A BIT TOO FAST AND TOO FAR
INLAND WITH THE RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND DECIDED
TO GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION.

DO NOT THINK THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE INLAND AREAS UNTIL THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND.
BROUGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN THE COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE PW/S ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET MUCH
ABOVE 2.5 INCHES...AND THAT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS ON SATURDAY
AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON SUNDAY. IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DOES OCCUR...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

Don't think or hope this will happen or we will really have some problems:

The ever changing area to watch...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Andrew wrote:Don't think or hope this will happen or we will really have some problems:

The Canadian QPF chart would be concerning. I wonder if this is a slower process than many believe. Worrisome that we have a favorable MJO pulse that appears rather strong heading E as well to add to the mix. Keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf the next few weeks.

srainhoutx wrote:

Andrew wrote:Don't think or hope this will happen or we will really have some problems:

The Canadian QPF chart would be concerning. I wonder if this is a slower process than many believe. Worrisome that we have a favorable MJO pulse that appears rather strong heading E as well to add to the mix. Keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf the next few weeks.

I believe it does and as you can tell most of the moisture is to the north of the low. Yea the next couple of weeks look extremely busy with little sleep.

Edit to say, never mind...

Anyword on what this is going to do?

Not looking good for our rain chances here it seems...