Re: August 2023
Posted: Wed Aug 02, 2023 8:58 am
XUS64 KHGX 021032
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
Dangerous heat continues to be the main scoop as temperatures topped
out in the 101-106°F range on Tuesday afternoon, and will be around
the same this afternoon minus a couple of degrees. An Excessive Heat
Warning/Heat Advisory continues through this evening, but it`s
essentially a lock to see at least a Heat Advisory extended into
Thursday. On the bright side, today is National Ice Cream Sandwich
Day, which is the perfect snack for cooling down with the extreme
temperatures outside. Speaking of ice cream, there is a possibility
that some of you could see a few sprinkles in the afternoon hours,
but for most of us it`ll be the same ol` vanilla forecast of
straight heat that`ll make us feel like we`re melting after spending
~5 seconds outside. The forecast certainly isn`t sweet as the
dangerous heat will continue into early next week, so we have quite
the rocky road ahead of us. Alright...I`ll get to the pint here.
Ridging aloft continues as a ~598 dam midlevel high ("heatdome")
persists over TX bringing us the dangerous temperatures we`ve seen
over the past few days. The heatdome essentially remains in place
throughout the entire short term period, but there will be a few
minor differences here and there. By this afternoon, a blob of
increased moisture moves in from the east and increases PW values to
1.8"-2.1" by this afternoon. This`ll do two things...increase
humidity and slightly increase rain chances for our far eastern
locations. Humidity will be a bit higher this afternoon, so you`ll
notice that it`s a bit more sweltry out there. The increased
moisture will lead to temperatures being a couple of degrees less
(doesn`t feel right to use the world "cooler") than what we saw
Tuesday. All that being said, temperatures will still range in the
100-105°F range with heat index values in the 107-114°F range. 00Z
CAMs depict that some of the convection that develops over LA could
nudge into our far eastern areas late this afternoon, but it`ll be
moving into an increasingly subsident region.
Thursday will be about the same, but a few degrees less than today`s
temperatures due to the gradually increasing humidity. So, even
though max temperatures will range from 98-103°F, we`ll still see
heat index values in the 108-112°F range. You can go ahead and lock
in at least a Heat Advisory for Thursday. I kept in a ~20% chance of
rain for Thursday as well on the off chance that a rogue shower is
able to overcome the subsidence inversion aloft (~800-750mb) and the
abundance of sinking air from the midlevel high being overhead. The
best chances of seeing anything develop will be near or south of the
I-10 corridor in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze. Another
slight difference for Thursday will be the winds. Winds on Thursday
will be a tad bit breezier due to a tighter pressure gradient as a
weak surface low develops near the TX/OK border. So, although the
forecast can be labeled as just "hot", there are at least a few
subtleties that will cause some slight variations.
With heat alerts (Heat Advisory and/or Excessive Heat Warning)
likely persisting throughout the week, please continue to keep heat
safety at the top of your mind. Know the signs of heat related
illnesses, know the locations of the nearest cooling centers, drink
plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the
heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of
the day, wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS
look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as
well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is
too hot for their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
It will continue to be hot as we complete the first week of August with
inland high temperatures in an upper 90s to low 100s range and heat
index values generally in a 108 to 112 range. These numbers in combination
with heat index values near the coast around 108 will support continued
heat advisories as mid/upper level ridging remains in control, even
with its slight westward shift. Low rain chances will remain in the
Friday through Sunday forecast, mainly near and along parts of the
coast and coastal counties, but even most of these areas will stay
dry. Monday/Tuesday look promising for possible rains and slightly
lower high temperatures if the ridge can shift far enough to the west
and allow for disturbances to sag southward along its eastern edge
and into parts of our area. If ridging remains too strong for these
disturbances to get close to us, then little heat relief can be expected.
Continue to practice heat safety!
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
Patchy fog has developed around LBX early this morning and should
dissipate by ~14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with winds starting out light and
southwesterly then becoming a bit breezier and southeasterly in
the afternoon. Winds become light and variable again overnight
with models pointing towards a brief round of MVFR ceilings around
CLL and another round of patchy fog at LBX early Thursday morning.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 1 to 3 foot seas should prevail
through the next several days. Small craft may need to exercise caution
during the overnight periods when the winds could increase to around
15 knots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.
42
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high and record high minimum temperatures for today are...
- CLL... 105 (last set in 2011) and 81 (set in 1914)
- IAH... 104 (set in 1998) and 82 (set in 2009)
- HOU... 101 (set in 1998) and 81 (set in 2021)
- GLS... 97 (set in 1877) and 86 (set in 2022)
- PSX... 97 (set in 2018) and 86 (set in 2022)
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 102 80 101 80 / 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 94 83 92 83 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>200-300.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ210>214-226-227-
235>238-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
Dangerous heat continues to be the main scoop as temperatures topped
out in the 101-106°F range on Tuesday afternoon, and will be around
the same this afternoon minus a couple of degrees. An Excessive Heat
Warning/Heat Advisory continues through this evening, but it`s
essentially a lock to see at least a Heat Advisory extended into
Thursday. On the bright side, today is National Ice Cream Sandwich
Day, which is the perfect snack for cooling down with the extreme
temperatures outside. Speaking of ice cream, there is a possibility
that some of you could see a few sprinkles in the afternoon hours,
but for most of us it`ll be the same ol` vanilla forecast of
straight heat that`ll make us feel like we`re melting after spending
~5 seconds outside. The forecast certainly isn`t sweet as the
dangerous heat will continue into early next week, so we have quite
the rocky road ahead of us. Alright...I`ll get to the pint here.
Ridging aloft continues as a ~598 dam midlevel high ("heatdome")
persists over TX bringing us the dangerous temperatures we`ve seen
over the past few days. The heatdome essentially remains in place
throughout the entire short term period, but there will be a few
minor differences here and there. By this afternoon, a blob of
increased moisture moves in from the east and increases PW values to
1.8"-2.1" by this afternoon. This`ll do two things...increase
humidity and slightly increase rain chances for our far eastern
locations. Humidity will be a bit higher this afternoon, so you`ll
notice that it`s a bit more sweltry out there. The increased
moisture will lead to temperatures being a couple of degrees less
(doesn`t feel right to use the world "cooler") than what we saw
Tuesday. All that being said, temperatures will still range in the
100-105°F range with heat index values in the 107-114°F range. 00Z
CAMs depict that some of the convection that develops over LA could
nudge into our far eastern areas late this afternoon, but it`ll be
moving into an increasingly subsident region.
Thursday will be about the same, but a few degrees less than today`s
temperatures due to the gradually increasing humidity. So, even
though max temperatures will range from 98-103°F, we`ll still see
heat index values in the 108-112°F range. You can go ahead and lock
in at least a Heat Advisory for Thursday. I kept in a ~20% chance of
rain for Thursday as well on the off chance that a rogue shower is
able to overcome the subsidence inversion aloft (~800-750mb) and the
abundance of sinking air from the midlevel high being overhead. The
best chances of seeing anything develop will be near or south of the
I-10 corridor in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze. Another
slight difference for Thursday will be the winds. Winds on Thursday
will be a tad bit breezier due to a tighter pressure gradient as a
weak surface low develops near the TX/OK border. So, although the
forecast can be labeled as just "hot", there are at least a few
subtleties that will cause some slight variations.
With heat alerts (Heat Advisory and/or Excessive Heat Warning)
likely persisting throughout the week, please continue to keep heat
safety at the top of your mind. Know the signs of heat related
illnesses, know the locations of the nearest cooling centers, drink
plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the
heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of
the day, wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS
look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as
well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is
too hot for their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
It will continue to be hot as we complete the first week of August with
inland high temperatures in an upper 90s to low 100s range and heat
index values generally in a 108 to 112 range. These numbers in combination
with heat index values near the coast around 108 will support continued
heat advisories as mid/upper level ridging remains in control, even
with its slight westward shift. Low rain chances will remain in the
Friday through Sunday forecast, mainly near and along parts of the
coast and coastal counties, but even most of these areas will stay
dry. Monday/Tuesday look promising for possible rains and slightly
lower high temperatures if the ridge can shift far enough to the west
and allow for disturbances to sag southward along its eastern edge
and into parts of our area. If ridging remains too strong for these
disturbances to get close to us, then little heat relief can be expected.
Continue to practice heat safety!
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
Patchy fog has developed around LBX early this morning and should
dissipate by ~14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with winds starting out light and
southwesterly then becoming a bit breezier and southeasterly in
the afternoon. Winds become light and variable again overnight
with models pointing towards a brief round of MVFR ceilings around
CLL and another round of patchy fog at LBX early Thursday morning.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 1 to 3 foot seas should prevail
through the next several days. Small craft may need to exercise caution
during the overnight periods when the winds could increase to around
15 knots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.
42
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high and record high minimum temperatures for today are...
- CLL... 105 (last set in 2011) and 81 (set in 1914)
- IAH... 104 (set in 1998) and 82 (set in 2009)
- HOU... 101 (set in 1998) and 81 (set in 2021)
- GLS... 97 (set in 1877) and 86 (set in 2022)
- PSX... 97 (set in 2018) and 86 (set in 2022)
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 102 80 101 80 / 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 94 83 92 83 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>200-300.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ210>214-226-227-
235>238-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42