Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 02, 2025 8:00 pm
DoctorMu at least the heat ridge looms to be moving, rebuilds over the western US, with all the rain we have had the last month or so, they may help to put a damper on extreme heat this summer
...ummmmmm, maybe. Maybe not.
I've seen this movie far too often.
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 02, 2025 8:00 pm
DoctorMu at least the heat ridge looms to be moving, rebuilds over the western US, with all the rain we have had the last month or so, they may help to put a damper on extreme heat this summer
...ummmmmm, maybe. Maybe not.
I've seen this movie far too often.
Next week looks more wet with temps in the 80’s to low 90’s as of rn. I’m not too concerned about a death ridge parking over us anytime soon.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
311 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
The next week brings us *both* kinds of Southeast Texas summer:
more sunny, very hot, and humid; and also a bit cloudier with
better potential for showers and storms, hot, and oppressively
humid! Some thoughts we`re thinking about the week to come:
- The hotter pattern with less rain potential (but not none!)
should dominate most of the time through this weekend. However,
late Tuesday night and Wednesday will be a key exception. Storms
may manage to push in from the north in the pre-dawn hours
Wednesday, and remains from that activity looks to help boost
afternoon shower and storm initiation.
- The threat of heat during this early stretch also look to drift
upwards into the weekend. Whatever tool you choose: heat index,
wet bulb globe temp, HeatRisk, it all indicates a need to pay
attention to the impact of the heat on us at the end of the
week.
- Come Monday and the new work week, we`ll shift into the type of
summer that is maybe not quite as hot, but also looks to be more
humid, with greater coverage of afternoon showers and storms
providing our best shot for heat relief.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
I don`t really know if there`s a better way to describe the short
term portion of the forecast other than simply saying "June".
Today looks to be the warmer, drier day of the two. We find
ourselves briefly under a shortwave ridge that whose axis should
make its way over us today. This will open us up to a little vort
max currently over West Texas to make its way through the pattern
as it gets ejected from an upper trough over Colorado and shoots
through out way. I don`t anticipate that this little blob of
vorticity to amount to a whole lot given the general ridginess of
the environment over Southeast Texas today, but I do expect that
it will probably highlight where the best channel of moisture is
today, driven by low level onshore flow. Look for an isolated
smattering of showers and maybe even a thunderstorm, most likely
along the western border of our forecast area, stretching from
Matagorda Bay northward.
Tonight into Wednesday is where things get briefly interesting,
along with a bit of a taste of what things should look more like
early next week. But more on that in the long term. In this
timeframe, we`ll be casting our eyes to north as we so often do in
the late spring and early summer. There is every expectation that
a collection of storms will initiate off the dryline and/or a cold
front making its way slowly from Oklahoma to North Texas. That
front will probably be accomplished to reach the northern border
of our area, but what has a better chance of pushing in is that
complex of storms once it manages to detach from the boundaries
and ride its cold pool south/southeastward.
For now...much of the CAM guidance is fairly sour on this complex
of storms surviving into Southeast Texas, with it largely dying
off over our area. However, this is a setup in which numerical
guidance is notoriously poor. For parametrized models it is no
surprise as it is driven entirely by mesoscale interactions. But
even the CAMs seem to struggle with this, as we got a lovely
reminder of last week when a line that was supposed to die before
reaching College Station ended up driving all the way to the Gulf
coast. So...I just went ahead and put up slight chance PoPs for
late tonight and Wednesday morning for the large majority of the
area, and getting as high as about 30 percent around College
Station.
Now, even if the line itself does die out and never drops a bit of
rain in the area, it will likely make itself known tomorrow
afternoon. At this point, the upper trough powering the synoptic
machine will be ejecting, but looks to drag down enough that it
should help support lift, if we can get any vertical motion
started. And with an outflow boundary from the storm complex
expected to be hanging around, it should provide a decent focus
for storm initiation Wednesday afternoon, especially if we get
some fun collisions with the seabreeze and/or outflow from the
day`s new convection. So while today may struggle to get daytime
showers and storms going, I expect we should see more scattered
activity on Wednesday.
Temperature-wise, there`s not much change to expect. This
shortwave ridge isn`t all that impressive and might be a bit
mistimed, so today and tomorrow should continue to see us get
highs around or a little above 90 degrees inland (more mid to
upper 80s at the coast) with overnight lows in the 70s inland and
around 80 degrees at the Gulf shore. If anyone is going to fail to
accomplish that, it`s because you won the rain lottery on
Wednesday. Congrats!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025
The long term period can be summarized with just two words...hot
and hazy. The heat really builds in going into the weekend, but on
Thursday we do still reach the low 90s areawide along with a
slight chance for isolated showers/storms along the sea breeze in
the afternoon. On Friday, we`ll get a plume of Saharan dust moving
in from the Gulf, so expect the skies to be hazy through the
weekend. On top of that, temperatures will be a bit warmer as we
top out in the low to mid 90s. The warming trend continues through
the weekend with upper 90s expected by Sunday. This comes
courtesy of a ~592+ dam mid-level high that builds in over
northern Mexico towards the end of the work week combined with
850mb temperatures approaching the 90th percentile over the
weekend. The increased subsidence will lead to a decreasing trend
in rain chances and as you saw...an increasing trend in
temperatures. Rain chances don`t exactly drop to zero, but they
will be on the low side. Heat indices will be well into the triple
digits and may potentially flirt with the Heat Advisory threshold
towards the end of the week. If you`re curious about the low
temperatures, they`re equally as miserable...how do low
temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s sound? Yeah...not great.
The mid-level high does look to retrograde to the west a bit late in
the weekend into early next week which would allow for embedded
disturbances to sneak their way in and bring back some more
noticeable chances for showers/storms. Until then though...it`s
gonna be hot and hazy. It is June after all!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025
VFR conditions prevail as southeasterly winds continue on a gradual
decreasing trend through the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings may make
an appearance at CLL and could extend further southeastward, but the
highest confidence for now remains just for CLL. Patchy fog has made
an appearance the past few nights at CXO and SGR, so keeping with a
persistence forecast for decreased visibilities generally after 09Z.
VFR conditions return by 15Z/Tuesday with breezy southeasterly winds
prevailing. Expect sustained winds of 10-15 kt with occasional gusts
up to 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Some isolated showers/storms
could develop near the western terminals (CLL/SGR/LBX) in the
afternoon, but confidence of this remains low enough for now to keep
it out of this set of TAFs.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025
Light onshore flow and low seas continues to prevail, but we will
see the onshore flow strengthen late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
This may lead to a brief period of caution flags, but it will be
borderline. Light onshore flow will prevail through the rest of
the forecast period with chances for showers/storms returning
around midweek. The persistent onshore flow will lead to an
increased risk of rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches around
and after midweek. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return
around midweek as well. A plume of Saharan dust will move in
towards the end of the work week and last into the weekend leading
to hazy conditions.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 02, 2025 8:00 pm
DoctorMu at least the heat ridge looms to be moving, rebuilds over the western US, with all the rain we have had the last month or so, they may help to put a damper on extreme heat this summer
...ummmmmm, maybe. Maybe not.
I've seen this movie far too often.
I'm not seeing this setup near-term. Next week looks much stormier again with multiple shortwaves ejecting into the region. I don't trust these long-range forecasts.
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
VFR conditions across the area this afternoon. A few thunderstorms
are dotting the radar, mostly west of I-45. This trend will likely
continue through the afternoon hours, before waning with loss of
daytime heating. Winds will generally be light out of the SE,
though gusts to 20 knots will be possible through the afternoon
hours. Expect VFR this evening through most of tonight. MVFR CIGs
expected to move in north of IAH around 09z Tuesday. A line of
showers and embedded thunderstorms will begin to impact the area
around 09z from NW to SE. Once the initial line of showers and
storms moves through, coverage will wane down for a couple of
hours; however, by around 18z, showers and thunderstorms will
begin popping up across the area and continue through the
afternoon hours. With coverage being more scattered in nature,
confidence is low on exactly which terminals will be impacted with
the afternoon storms.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
A couple of storms remain on the radar this afternoon. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms may continue through the afternoon
before the loss of daytime heating. Brief heavy downpours may
occur with these storms, but outside of that a few lightning
strikes and some rumbles of thunder are expected. Mostly cloudy to
overcast skies tonight will serve as an insulator for tonight,
keeping surface temperatures on the warm side. Lows will be in the
70s area wide with a few coastal locations nearing 80 degrees. An
MCS is expected to approach SE Texas from the NW, arriving in the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods areas after midnight. Hi-res models
continue to show a weakening trend as this line approaches SE
Texas, with the line of storms becoming more broken and fizzling
out as it approaches the north side of the Houston Metro. As
mentioned by the previous forecaster, hesitant to bank on this
occurring given the setup and previous occasions when storms were
*supposed* to die out.
The afternoon probabilities are a bit higher than Wednesday
morning`s as daytime heating takes the stage. Any lingering
outflow boundaries from the morning MCS should help provide a
focus for convection with further assistance from the sea/bay
breeze or any additional outflow boundaries. Coverage should
become more scattered on Wednesday afternoon.
For locations that do receive rainfall, this will help cool down
daytime temperatures. Generally speaking, though, daytime highs
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Nighttime lows on Wednesday
will be in the low to mid 70s with coastal locations hovering near
80 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
Long term forecast remains on track with ridging taking hold over
Texas/Northern Mexico on Thursday, ushering in hot weather through
the weekend. 500mb heights across the region rise above 590 dam with
NAEFS mean 500mb heights above the 90th climatological percentile
from Thursday through Sunday. LREF mean 850mb temperatures start off
around 16-19C at the beginning of this period, then rise up to 17-
23C by the end of the weekend. Highs on Thursday are forecasted to
reach the upper 80s/mid 90s with isolated triple digit temperatures
possible in some spots Saturday & Sunday. Dewpoints are expected to
be in the 70s, though could mix out into the upper 60s for some
inland areas during the afternoon hours. Broadly, heat indices on
Thursday & Friday will range from 96-107F, then 100-110F over the
weekend.
The effects of this heat will mostly be moderate during the work
week, primarily affecting those already sensitive to heat. This
weekend, heat levels will pose a greater risk to all individuals,
with health systems and heat sensitive industries more likely to
feel impacts as well. Heat advisories are looking like a greater
possibility during this period, though we`ll still have to see how
strong afternoon mixing is over the next few days, and if that may
play a large enough role to mitigate the heat risk.
Next week will still feature hot weather, though models are
suggesting higher rain chances due to a frontal boundary pushing in
from the north. Given the time of year, it would not be surprising
to see this boundary slow & stall before reaching our CWA, though
for the time being models suggests that scattered showers/storms
will be possible throughout the day, which should provide some
relief from the hot weather.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
VFR conditions across the area this afternoon. A few thunderstorms
are dotting the radar, mostly west of I-45. This trend will likely
continue through the afternoon hours, before waning with loss of
daytime heating. Winds will generally be light out of the SE,
though gusts to 20 knots will be possible through the afternoon
hours. Expect VFR this evening through most of tonight. MVFR CIGs
expected to move in north of IAH around 09z Tuesday. A line of
showers and embedded thunderstorms will begin to impact the area
around 09z from NW to SE. Once the initial line of showers and
storms moves through, coverage will wane down for a couple of
hours; however, by around 18z, showers and thunderstorms will
begin popping up across the area and continue through the
afternoon hours. With coverage being more scattered in nature,
confidence is low on exactly which terminals will be impacted with
the afternoon storms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
Light onshore flow through the day will begin to strengthen to near
moderate overnight leading to borderline caution flag conditions.
Sustained winds will be mainly around 15 kt and could see some gusts
near 20 kt in the bays and Gulf waters. These elevated winds stick
around into Wednesday morning before onshore flow becomes light
through most of the work week. Winds may elevate near caution flag
territory again going into the weekend alongside elevated seas. The
persistent onshore flow will lead to an increased risk of rip
currents along Gulf-facing beaches especially after midweek. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms return around midweek. Mariners should
also take note that a plume of Saharan dust will move in towards the
end of the work week and prevail over the weekend leading to hazy
conditions.
If tropical moisture streams this way, the Saharan dust could impede TX development and give us some lemonade. This may be a south of Hwy 1*5 thing. It's a ways off.
Some interesting analogs about this summer ( july-september) being talked about on social media ( x) im hearing some folks talk about this summer looking similar to 2021 when we had a cooler and wetter summer here, some of the climate models, especially the NMME really keep july- september on the cooler and wetter side dowm here, maybe just maybe we wont have such a miserable summer overall
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 8:31 pm
Some interesting analogs about this summer ( july-september) being talked about on social media ( x) im hearing some folks talk about this summer looking similar to 2021 when we had a cooler and wetter summer here, some of the climate models, especially the NMME really keep july- september on the cooler and wetter side dowm here, maybe just maybe we wont have such a miserable summer overall
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 8:31 pm
Some interesting analogs about this summer ( july-september) being talked about on social media ( x) im hearing some folks talk about this summer looking similar to 2021 when we had a cooler and wetter summer here, some of the climate models, especially the NMME really keep july- september on the cooler and wetter side dowm here, maybe just maybe we wont have such a miserable summer overall
