March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[Andrew]

SWODY 2 late- debating upgrade to Mod Risk???

Maybe so. I have heard rumors that was a possibility today.

[srainhoutx]

If, and it's still a big if IMO, the SPC upgrades to a Moderate Risk it likely would not happen until tomorrow morning at the earliest. That said the meso models are concerning regarding tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday. We will see.

[unome]

HPC 12-hr QPF loop http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop12hr.html makes it look like horrid back-from-spring-break traffic for tues

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Significant spring storm system to affect the central plains early this week with severe weather and heavy rainfall.



Powerful upper level trough over the western US today will move eastward and deepen into a cut-off low pressure system over the southern plains early this week. At the surface strong SE winds continue to feed unseasonably moist and unstable air mass off the western Gulf northward into TX. Weak disturbances in the SW flow aloft on the eastern flank of the current western US trough has been helping to develop afternoon/evening thunderstorms over SW/W TX over the past 72 hours. This pattern will continue this afternoon with thunderstorms firing over the mountains of NE MX and tracking ENE/E into the border region of TX. Increasing downstream mid level cap should prevent much of this activity from reaching SE TX.



Monday PM-Tuesday:



Severe weather/heavy rainfall event becoming increasingly likely.



Strong storm system will eject into the plains sending a cool front plowing eastward into what becomes by Monday afternoon a very moist and unstable air mass over TX. Low level jet is expected to really crank up starting early Monday with 925-850mb winds out of the S on the order of 50-65Kts this will be overspread by mid level flow out of the SW at 60-80kts (a nasty veering and increasing wind profile with height…shear). Surface heating Monday afternoon will work with the increasing moist along with the incoming cold air aloft from the west (resulting in an increasing unstable and buoyant air mass). Last ingredient will be the cool front which will help lift the air mass and break the remaining capping in place…the result will be vigorous and significant thunderstorm formation across SW through NC TX Monday afternoon/evening.



Severe Threat:

Storms will initially be supercellar in nature with very large hail and tornadoes possible and then transition into a forward moving squall line/MCS overnight into Tuesday morning. Large line of severe thunderstorms will approach our western counties in the 600-900am Tuesday period and then move slowly across the area during the day on Tuesday. Breaks in the overcast downstream of this line will destabilize the air mass resulting in the potential for cells to develop ahead of the main line (supercells). Wind shear appears more than favorable for tornadoes both ahead of the main line and spin-ups along the line. Additionally, the strong mid level flow favors damaging winds along the leading edge of the squall line/MCS complex. Still some uncertainty on exactly how everything is going to develop and move/and how fast…but the late Monday-Tuesday afternoon period is looking fairly rough. SPC already has much of the area outlooked for a severe threat on Monday afternoon/night and for Tuesday. There is the potential for an upgrade by SPC of portions of our area into a moderate severe risk…especially if the tornado threat increases any more. All severe modes will be in play with this event….tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.



Heavy Rainfall:

As with previous storm systems this winter/spring, abundant Gulf moisture and vigorous convection has resulted in some impressive rainfalls making 2012 one of the wettest years so far on record. This next storm looks not to disappoint as moisture levels once again increase to nearly 200% of normal with very good low level inflow off the Gulf pumping a continuous feed of moisture into developing storms. Of greater concern is the potential for the line of storms to slow as in moves into SE TX and toward the coast on Tuesday morning as the upper level winds becoming increasingly parallel to the cool front/outflow boundaries…potentially allowing a period of cell training (one cell after another moving over the same area). Deep convection will result in some impressive short term rainfall totals of 2-3 inches per hour. Grounds are wet from the previous rains and rivers are already running above normal so additional heavy rainfall will generate some rapid run-off. Urban flash flooding is also a concern with the expected high hourly rainfall rates. A Flash Flood Watch may be required for parts of the area on Monday. A River Flood Outlook is in effect for significant rises on the Navasota and Trinity Rivers.



Day 2 (Monday Severe Weather Outlook)

Day 3 (Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook):

[/i]

[unome]

updated multimedia weather briefing from FWD http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/fwd/20120318/player.html

from HGX from yesterday http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing (for Sat thru Tues)

[txsnowmaker]

Perhaps a bit of good news for those of us who would like the benefit of more rain without tornadic activity. In his latest update this afternoon, Dr. Greg Forbes, "Severe Weather Expert" for The Weather Channel, has our area with no greater than a "Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible" through Tuesday: http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather- ... 2011-07-11.

[Portastorm]

GFS seems to be trending wetter and wetter for the Austin area. Yesterday's 12z run showed 3.6 inches for this coming event, while today's 12z GFS shows about 4.4 inches. NWSFO Austin/San Antonio still saying the slow-moving squall line will hit the I-35 corridor (AUS, SAT metro areas) between 2-8 a.m. Tuesday.

[unome]

a nice sat shot before dark from TCEQ - what's with the thin spiral cloud line in E TX

http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public ... f0015.jpeg

[srainhoutx]

If the 00Z NAM (4 km WRF/NMM) is correct, the upcoming severe episode could extended into Tuesday night/early Wednesday as further slowing of the eastward progression of the trough axis is delayed abit further. Some very impressive rain fall totals noted as well if this slowing trend continues. We will see.

[texoz]

Nice line of storms forming tonight (Sunday) along Texas / New Mexico border.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains.php

[Andrew]

GFS is coming in even slower with the progression of the trough/ cut off low. Flooding really looks to be a possible concerning factor.

[Ptarmigan]

Nice line of storms forming tonight (Sunday) along Texas / New Mexico border.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains.php

The storms are firing up as of now. This is going to be a very rough ride.

[Andrew]

Look at the soundings for College station from the GFS at hour 30! EHI is at 3.0! Helicity in the 300's and CAPE is close to 1500. Very impressive to say the least. Shear from this profile looks nice too for some rotation.

[Andrew]

SPC just went MDT for central Texas!

Day 1:

SPC AC 190557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NERN TX
INTO FAR SERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NWD
INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH MERIDIONAL STYLE FLOW REGIME. SLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TX INTO MN AND WI. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM WRN/CNTRL OK INTO WRN N TX EARLY MON...BUT SHOULD STALL
ACROSS CNTRL TX.

MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...AND THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
CENTERED OVER THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM CNTRL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
OH/PA/WV...WITH ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND POSSIBLE FROM DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS.

...TX INTO OK AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
A COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE DAY WILL UNFOLD ON MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES
BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING IN RELATION TO WHERE A SQUALL LINE...NOW
OVER WRN TX...WILL BE LOCATED...AND HOW MUCH COLD POOL AND
STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST
THIS LINE WILL BE OVER W CNTRL OK INTO WRN N TX AT 12Z...WITH SRN
END NEAR I-20. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...AND STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO SOME HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REJUVENATE OVER ERN OK/NERN
TX WITH A STRONG 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THAT AREA. LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS SAME GENERAL VICINITY...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FUELED BY WARM ADVECTION MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS DEPICTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. SHEAR WOULD FAVOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TX. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS AREA
SHOULD BE S OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY...AND ON THE INTERFACE OF STRONG
HEATING PROGGED OVER WRN/W CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...STRONG INSTABILITY...AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...BUT WILL
DEFER POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITIES TO LATER OUTLOOKS
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BOUNDARY LOCATIONS.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL ONLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT LIKELY RESULTING IN A LARGE MCS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RAIN.

...ERN KS...MO...NEB/IA...
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL STREAM NWD INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY WITH A 40+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. LITTLE CIN WILL EXIST SO
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME STORMS
MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

...OH/WV INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...BUT A POCKET OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER
WAVE/OLD MCV SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL FAVOR A FEW STORM CORES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..JEWELL/HURLBUT.. 03/19/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif

[Andrew]

Day 2:

SPC AC 190558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN AR SWD ACROSS E TX
AND THE WRN 2/3 OF LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST
THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH -- MOVING INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AND EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...PRONOUNCED RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE ERN U.S. E OF
THE MS VALLEY...WITH RIDGING ALSO PROGGED OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES
-- TO THE S OF A BELT OF FAST WSWLY FLOW OVER THE NWRN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...AN EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING ERN PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS EARLY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME FROM ROUGHLY THE MID MO
VALLEY NWD...WHILE FARTHER S EXPECT FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR
OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW.

...S TX INTO LA AND PARTS OF SWRN AL...
A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS --
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ACCOMPANIED BY ONGOING SEVERE
POTENTIAL -- WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM ERN KS/WRN MO SSWWD ACROSS ERN
OK/E TX INTO PARTS OF S TX.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...AND THUS THE
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS E TX -- AND OF THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE BAND -- WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS MORE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME.
THUS...PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME AREAS...WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED.

ONE EFFECT OF THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL BE TO CONTINUALLY
PROCESS EXISTING INSTABILITY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED IN MANY AREAS. STILL...WITH SHEAR VERY FAVORABLE --
AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A
SURFACE LOW EVOLVES OVER E TX -- KINEMATIC SUPPORT IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR A HIGHER-END SEVERE RISK.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY SMALL 30% RISK
AREA...ALONG AND JUST E OF THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MORE PERSISTENT
BAND WOULD BE PARTICULARLY LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE...AND WITH AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCAL HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

LITTLE IF ANY EWD CONVECTIVE PROGRESS IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
EVEN SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE FRONT -- AND THUS THE CONVECTIVE BAND
-- AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT -- BUT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE.

..GOSS.. 03/19/2012

[Portastorm]

Been a long time since I've seen the Austin area in the "moderate" risk category from SPC. Today is going to be a rough one.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
409 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CAN BE SEEN ON WV SAT IMAGERY MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN US THIS MORNING. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER EASTERN MT DOWN THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE
AND ACROSS W TX. THERE IS A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
WESTERN OK TO NEAR MIDLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD
TODAY AND TUE AND BRING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES TOWARD THE EAST IT WILL FORCE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORT
TERM MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE.
MODEL CAPE FORECASTS ARE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG. IN ADDITION AS THE
TROF APPROACHES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SPC HAS
INCLUDED MOST OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA IN A MODERATE RISK. THE FULL
SPECTRUM OF SEVERE...TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE
HAIL...IS POSSIBLE. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT 1PM TIL
MIDNIGHT LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. PW WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ONE AND
ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUE UNTIL NOON. HPC HAS OUR EASTERN HALF IN LOW TO MDT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE
HALF TO TWO INCHES WESTERN HALF AND TWO TO FIVE INCHES EASTERN
HALF WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO SEVEN INCHES. THE MAIN EVENT
SHOULD BE OVER BY TUE EVENING...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER UNTIL WED
MORNING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...AN UPPER LEVEL WILL BUILD IN
AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. First, stay safe Central and NE TX neighbors and get the word out this morning to those that may not be so weather wise. Second, the slowing trend raises an eyebrow and concern for those of us in the Eastern and SE Part of the Lone Star State for tomorrow. The severe signals are very high and with so much wind energy involved, the chances of a significant severe event spanning nearly 40 hours over a large portion of Texas is very concerning. The Major population centers of Texas may well all be affected and I urge everyone to pay very close attention to the weather the next couple days. More later this morning. Stay Tuned!


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS WITH
ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

TO THE SOUTH OF THIS INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE INTERACTION
OF MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STRONG...LOW AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM WINDS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY.
LATEST WEATHER MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT MULTIPLE WAVES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THIS GEOGRAPHICAL AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE OR
LARGER AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

[srainhoutx]

Note: Special 18Z sounding for Del Rio scheduled and I expect additional special soundings such as College Station and off hour releases may well be forthcoming as well…

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
529 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-201200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
529 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...
...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH INLAND. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. CONSIDERING THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
PLACE...ANY ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE.

A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS LINE OF OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE APPROACHING A
COLLEGE STATION TO EDNA LINE AROUND 6 AM. ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE SQUALL LINE MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE SITUATED ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 59 AROUND NOON THEN INTO EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS SLOWS. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT. THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH SOME
ISOLATED 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING
CELLS OCCUR. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO LIVINGSTON LINE
APPEAR TO BE SITUATED IN THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SEE THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.

RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD. THOUGH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME...WE WILL BE MONITORING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

IN ADDITION TO OUR LOCAL RAINFALL...CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO MIDWEEK SO RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AND SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

[srainhoutx]

HPC Flash Flood Guidance Outlook Day 1 (3/19/2012) and Day 2 (3/20/2012)

[unome]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4

from Mon AM - won't be updated