Tracking the Tropics:

[jasons2k]

I saw the word and now I don't. The post must have been edited. The word(s) used was either, "irresponsible" or "not responsible."

I know Travis well enough to know that he is very smart and would not suggest that rainy days at Hobby would have a serious correlation to getting hit by a tropical system. I read it as he was just taking the comparison sarcasm all the way. I guess he could've added that heavier than normal traffic on 290 could be an indicator. (At least that would be true: evactuation, contra-flow!.

FWIW I was careful to not use the word "irresponsible" as I thought that was a bit too strong of a critique.

I didn't say that - I choose my words carefully.

Somewhere in the post I missed the sarcasm, so my apologies if I misinterpreted it to mean something else.

I probably used that for a previous post regarding Bryan Norcross - have not made any edits this this one. (you would see it notated if I did)

I have a lot of respect for T.H. too - that's why I was shocked when I read what I thought I was reading, TBH

[stormlover]

King euro bows down to the GFS, barely develops 99l

[jasons2k]

Not really surprising given the trend, will stay weaker and on the SW side of guidance until it gels, prob not until the FL Straits IMO.

[unome]

recon from tropicalatlantic.com , hosted on Jim's site by Chris to lighten traffic load - using CESIUM by Bing maps, no plugin required: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... ing=cesium

NOAA's P3 currently flying non-tasked research mission out of MacDill AFB

not sure if this is Miss Piggy or Kermt ?

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA
https://www.facebook.com/noaahrd
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_rss.html

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2016/08/2 ... into-al99/

← Hurricane Field Program Update – Thursday, Aug. 25, 2016 11AM Eastern
Its a second flight for NOAA’s P3 aircraft into AL99

The NOAA43 aircraft will fly again into AL99 – the tropical disturbance north of Hispaniola. The aircraft will take off at 2:00PM eastern time for a eight hour mission to and from MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, FL. The science objective of this flight is just like the first flight: to collect data in the environment as well as the inner core of the disturbance. Below is the flight track. The dots on the flight track (shown in green) represent the aircraft turn points. The red dots in the figure show the locations that launch weather balloons twice a day while the purple dots are the locations that launch balloons once a day.

[unome]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 1200 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph through the southeastern Bahamas. Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation, and that the strongest winds associated with the system likely have decreased to below tropical storm strength. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has become significantly less organized during the past 24 hours. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so, they could become a little more favorable over the weekend or early next week when the wave is expected to approach southern Florida or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mudslides, are likely over Hispaniola today. This system could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or two. Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is possible that some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gaston weakened to a tropical storm at 25/1500 UTC. Its center is near 20.4N 44.4W or about 1008 nm east-northeast of the Leeward Islands moving northwest at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 20N to 23N between 42W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 18N to 27N between 40W and 51W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...

A Gale warning continues in effect for the area northeast and east of a broad area of low pressure analyzed as a 1008 mb low north of Hispaniola near 21N70W. These winds are expected to continue through early Friday morning. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 16N to 23N between 64W and 75W including Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Environmental conditions have the potential to become more conducive for tropical development and this system could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days when the system is near the central or northwestern Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over Puerto Rico today, and strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely over portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days. These rains could lead to flash floods and mudslides. There is a medium chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the West Coast of Africa near 0000 UTC today. Saharan dry air and dust cover most of the wave environment, which along with unfavorable deep layer wind shear hinder convection at the time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east TropicalAtlantic near 18N16W then continues along 08N22W to 06N35W. The ITCZ is not currently evident. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N E of 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad middle to upper level ridge is anchored over Tennessee covering the Gulf waters north of 25N. An elongated upper trough extends from the northern Bahamas SW to the Yucatan peninsula. Diffluent flow between these two upper features along with abundant moisture support scattered to isolated heavy showers and tstms N of 24N between 85W and 95W. In the SW basin, a surface trough along 23N92W to 18N94W support isolated showers in the Bay of Campeche. A weak surface ridge extends from the northwest Atlantic across the southeast CONUS to over the north Gulf and is anchored by a 1023 mb high over Georgia. This surface ridge will persist through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern affecting the basin is the area of low pressure in the Special Features centered just north of Hispaniola. Please see the Special Features section above for the activity associated with this system over the north-central and northeast Caribbean. The elongated upper trough extending across the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula generates diffluent flow just in the vicinity of western Honduras and Belize to support scattered showers and isolated tstms S of 19N W of 86W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm off the coast of southern Panama associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough. East to southeast moderate winds dominate the central and eastern Caribbean waters while gentle NW flow covers the western portion of the basin. The area of low pressure in the Special Features will continue to track northwestward during the next two days generating showers for the Greater Antilles including Cuba.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are across the central
and souther portions of the Island associated with a broad area of
low pressure centered over northern adjacent waters. Shower
activity assciated with this low will continue through Sunday
potentially causing flash floods and mud slides over portions of
the island during the next couple of days. Please see the Special
Features section for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern in the basin is Tropical Storm Gaston in the central Atlantic and an area of Gale-force winds associated with a broad area of low pressure centered N of Hispaniola. Please seethe Special Features section above for the activity associated with this system over the southwest Atlantic. The remainder of the east Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high southwest of the Azores. The Special Features low will track northwestward through the Bahamas into the weekend with gale force winds northeast of the surface low.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS

[Andrew]

18z:

[sau27]

18z:

Wow, the models have really spread out. I feel like although the models have been waffling they have all been waffling back and forth in the same directions. This is the most spread out run I have seen the past few days. Maybe they are just throwing up their hands.

[Andrew]

18z:

Wow, the models have really spread out. I feel like although the models have been waffling they have all been waffling back and forth in the same directions. This is the most spread out run I have seen the past few days. Maybe they are just throwing up their hands.

I think they have spread out more because now development is becoming more and more questionable. That just adds so many more factors to the equation.

[unome]

I think they have spread out more because now development is becoming more and more questionable. That just adds so many more factors to the equation.

can you post an image of corresponding intensity models please ? it may help the perspective - many thanks

[Andrew]

I think they have spread out more because now development is becoming more and more questionable. That just adds so many more factors to the equation.

can you post an image of corresponding intensity models please ? it may help the perspective - many thanks

[unome]

thank you very much Andrew, I appreciate that

here's a link to info on the various models, to identify the various tracks for anyone not familiar with the model identifiers: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html

and the disclaimer from their site:

Disclaimer: The data displayed here are informational only and should NOT be used for making life and death decisions. Always take the word of official sources - the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service office - when preparing for any potential storm impact. If anything on these plots causes confusion, disregard the information in its entirety. The availability, timeliness, and reliability of these data are not guaranteed, and no liability is implied or expressed by your use of this website.

Site and Contents © 2007-2016, Clark Evans. Media use of these images is welcome; please contact for details.

[DoctorMu]

I think they have spread out more because now development is becoming more and more questionable. That just adds so many more factors to the equation.

can you post an image of corresponding intensity models please ? it may help the perspective - many thanks

This is the last discernible low on GFS - 90 miles out...after being crossing longitudinally down Cuba.

[DoctorMu]

thank you very much Andrew, I appreciate that

here's a link to info on the various models, to identify the various tracks for anyone not familiar with the model identifiers: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html

and the disclaimer from their site:

Disclaimer: The data displayed here are informational only and should NOT be used for making life and death decisions. Always take the word of official sources - the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service office - when preparing for any potential storm impact. If anything on these plots causes confusion, disregard the information in its entirety. The availability, timeliness, and reliability of these data are not guaranteed, and no liability is implied or expressed by your use of this website.

Site and Contents © 2007-2016, Clark Evans. Media use of these images is welcome; please contact for details.

Thanks.

[unome]

This is the last discernible low on GFS - 90 miles out...after being crossing longitudinally down Cuba

many thanks to you, as well

[unome]

does anyone know where to find an animated version of the spaghetti models over time ? I know where to find them animated in a single run, but I seem to recall a site that had a simple animated graphic, showing how they changed from model run to model run - can't for the life of me remember where this was though & that was a couple pc's ago, no link saved...

would be forever in your debt if you could share a link

[unome]

I like his updates https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQD7funYKO0 , just one opinion, of many available out there, but always seems to have some common sense - it goes without saying you should always pay attn to NHC & local NWS, media mets, etc....

a cool Rapid Scan viewing option: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

as I mentioned earlier, I realized, just from an impromptu power outage here in NW Harris Co, I was not nearly as "ready" as I imagined - regardless of whether 99L developes or not, it's wise to go over your plans, know where stuff is, etc, etc...
Texaspirate does a great job of giving us emergency preparedness info on our forum here - tks for that !

and I finally found my battery operated fans in the attic today - yay !

[Scott747]

Heh.

18z GFS says go west 99l.

And I mean way west so far.

[srainhoutx]

Ridge is very stout to the North and nothing but a weak surface reflection about 300 miles S of Lake Charles heading West toward Brownsville.

[TexasBreeze]

Maybe Mexico as a wave may be in play now? Wouldn't think I would say that today about this thing!

[stormlover]

From my good buddy:meterologist in Houston area

Good afternoon everyone,

I hope your Thursday is going well. We are just a couple of days from the weekend. So this email will not be quite as lengthy as yesterday's as many of you are thinking "thank goodness." HA! Anyway, here are the trends we have seen today along with my thoughts over the next couple of days as well.

The tropical disturbance out there is very poorly defined as you can see on visible satellite imagery. Now keep in mind, if you look at this link later tonight when it is dark, you will not see what I am seeing now, however if you do view it by 6-7 PM central time, you will see what I am talking about below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Do not pay any attention to the cloud cover along the Dominican Republic and Hispaniola. This is associated with the disturbance but due to the 40-50 knots of shear (inhibiting development) affecting this system, the activity is being displaced from the center. Notice the little swirl north of the islands in the image above.

The other factor not allowing it to develop is the dry air. The water vapor which is the link below shows dry air (orange color) just west of the disturbance which also inhibits development. There is still quite a bit of shear and dry air ahead of this thing and it will need to rally big time for it to develop before making the Bahamas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Many of the model runs have shifted further west during the day and this goes with my thinking from yesterday as the ridge of high pressure (what steers the system) sits across the southeast United States. This will be strong enough to push it west into the eastern and eventually the central Gulf of Mexico.

The strength of this thing could vary from a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane. Like I mentioned yesterday, predicting the magnitude of a tropical system is nearly impossible. The conditions will be ripe for prime strengthening across the Gulf of Mexico but what matters is how long is stays over the waters.

So my thoughts and where I still feel will strike are below...

The disturbance will remain an open wave until it reaches the Bahamas, it will strengthen into either a depression of Tropical Storm where it would become Hemine. It will either clip the southern tip of Florida or make it through the Florida Straits. It will continue on a west to northwestward track into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. This ridge will still hold strong. After that, is really up in the air to whether it continues west towards the Texas/Louisiana coastline, the central coast or the Florida panhandle. As for the strength of this storm, it is really hard to say at this time.

Here are my thoughts for the FINAL LANDFALL:

Brownsville to Matagorda Bay, TX - Less than 5%
(Late week to Labor Day weekend)

Matagorda Bay to Sabine Pass, TX - 20-30%
(Late week to Labor Day weekend)

Sabine Pass, TX to New Orleans, LA - 20-30%
(Late week)

New Orleans, LA to Panama City, FL - 30-40%
(Mid week)

Panama City to Tampa, FL - 10-20%
(Early to mid week)

On many of the TV stations you will see the spaghetti plots that have really become popular over the past few years. I will not show them for a couple of reasons; first, when a "storm" hasn't formed yet, it is hard for weather models to focus on an actual center, and secondly when a person sees one plot heading their way, they instantly think it is going to affect them. When and if something does form, I am fine (for the most part) with showing those plots. Ok, I am off my soap box...sorry...

There are three things I look at when looking at the track of a tropical system: historical tracks, upper pattern and my gut. Sounds crazy but these are the factors I look at and they have helped me become a better forecaster because of it.

IR imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I will continue to provide updates each evening through the rest of the week and into the weekend. If many of you want this sent to your personal emails versus work emails during the weekend because you don't check them, please let me know. Also, if there is anyone else who wants to receive these emails, also shoot me a quick message and I will add them to the list.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Nathan_Weather where I also provide updates, retweets, other pertinent information as well.

I hope everyone has a great Thursday and Friday. I will try to have an update out to you all tomorrow afternoon before leaving for work for the weekend. Enjoy!

Nathan