July Weather Discussion

[ticka1]

Which models bought us all these mosquitos? They are horrible!!!!

Bring back the HOT and DRY weather so they will go away!

[Ptarmigan]

12Z NAM says inverted trough/wave mentioned below will be a strong TC or hurricane in the Gulf in 3 days. Euro and GFS just see a wave, and NWS HGX didn't even see need to mention the NAM.

But man, if somehow its right, it'll be the next super model, like Tyra Banks!

000
FXUS64 KHGX 132028
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PWATS RISING LATE IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MOIST LAYER. UPPER
HIGH SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH (WAVE IN THE DEEP EASTERLIES) AND A PASSING
MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH . HIGHEST PW VALUES
HOWEVER WILL BE FROM COASTAL BEND SOUTHWARD WHERE LIFT FROM UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. NONETHELESS OUR REGION WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS RESULTING IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES.
UPPER HIGH WHICH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SW PART OF CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN CONUS
BY THURSDAY (NEXT WEEK). THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE
IN DAY TO DAY PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100 TO 106 DEGREES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF ZFPHGX MAY HAVE TO BE
TAPERED DOWN IF MOISTURE INCREASE IS HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 97 77 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 96 76 96 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 90 82 90 82 / 10 10 10 10 10

It would be a supermodel.

[Ptarmigan]

Should be 3 to 4 days from the big moisture surge NAM was trying to make a hurricane yesterday. It has calmed down after a good night's sleep.




snippet from afternoon HGX AFD.

Not super mondo bullish on rain. But its getting dry again...

MID-UPPER RIDGE TO BACK OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING EASTERN
TEXAS IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER HEIGHT CHANNEL. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF APPEARS TO GET ABSORBED...OR PUSHED UNDER...THIS
RETREATING RIDGE. SO NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH OF A FACTOR THIS WILL
BE IN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SUN-TUE POPS. AM MORE CONFIDENT THAT
A MORE MOIST AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AND...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS
...THE LOCAL BREEZE MAY PLAY MORE OF A FACTOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE MAY INDUCE ENOUGH OFFSHORE INSTABILITY TO CREATE MORE OFFSHORE
CONVECTION...THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WITHIN EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW (AS RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST). TAKING ALL OF
THIS IN ACCOUNT...WITH THE LOW-ISH QPF THE ENSEMBLE IS ADVERTISING...
MAKES FOR A 20-30 POPS WEEKEND / EARLY WEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAIN WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST AND SOUTH OF I-45 AND
I-10...RESPECTFULLY. EASTERN RIDGING REBUILDS IN THROUGH MID-WEEK
THAT WILL TURN THE CONVERSATION FROM HEAT-RELIEVING RAIN SHOWERS
BACK TO PLUS-105F HEAT INDICES. 31

Oh great, the Cockroach Ridge is at it again.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see yet again another T storm complex rolling W/SW in LA. Same thing happened last night and the night before. Here's hoping for a bit better cloud cover, cooler temps and some showers thrown in for good measure over the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to note the storms in AR and Northern LA along an area of convergence heading SW. As HGX mentioned, this looks to aid in development of storms N and E of I-45 today. I suspect this will continue to shift slowly W as higher PW's entering our area. Rain chances look better that they have in over a week. Perhaps my yard will get some badly needed rainfall tomorrow and Monday.

[srainhoutx]

Special Marine Warning up for Northern Galveston Bay for storm nearing Beach City.

[srainhoutx]

Encouraging forecast for those that would like to see some rain...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS SHIFT...OUTFLOW FROM
PREVIOUS COASTAL CONVECTION HEADING THROUGH MORE INTERIOR COUNTIES
OF LIBERTY...HARRIS...FORT BEND...AND WHARTON AT THIS HOUR. AS
EVIDENCED BY OUR EASTERN NEIGHBOR`S RECENT ACTIVITY...MOISTURE IS
ON ITS WAY UP AND FEEL THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SWING MORE
WET THAN DRY.

MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF TODAY...A MOISTENING
COLUMN IN THE 2.10-2.30" PWAT REALM WILL HANG OVER US THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. WEEKLY PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE (IF ANY)
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE AVERAGE
MID TO UPPER 80S. IF RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE ANY INDICATION...
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE THE THEME DE JOUR IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS.
WHETHER IT BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SW U.S-CENTERED 5H
RIDGE OR THE WESTERN EDGE OF RE-BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE...
EASTERN TEXAS HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A WEAKENED HEIGHT
FIELD. A WEAK NORTHERN GOM WAVE IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT WESTERN
RIDGING...POSSIBLY HANGING UP ALONG THE COAST AS AN INVERTED TROF.

GENERAL NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING WILL VEER MORE EASTERLY
WITH TIME THROUGH THURSDAY...REINFORCING THIS IDEA OF MORE LAPSE
RATE PROFILES (THAN MID-LEVEL WARMING)...ULTIMATELY PROVIDING A
BETTER HIGHWAY FOR DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE IN AND STAY A WHILE.
A MORE SATURATED COLUMN...WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE EARLY PM BAY/SEA BREEZE
AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAY`S CONVECTION...AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (HIGHER OMEGA/EFFICIENT 25-3H DIV)
ALL SUGGEST KEEPING POPS AT CHANCE OR ABOVE OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS.
THICKER CLOUD DECKS IN CONCERT WITH MORE AREAWIDE PRECIPITIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD OFFSET SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTERIOR DEW POINT AIR IN KEEPING
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN CHECK (OR UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA).

[Ptarmigan]

Drove in the heavy rain. Quite a rainstorm. I wonder if that storm east of us will make it here?

[Ptarmigan]

Encouraging forecast for those that would like to see some rain...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS SHIFT...OUTFLOW FROM
PREVIOUS COASTAL CONVECTION HEADING THROUGH MORE INTERIOR COUNTIES
OF LIBERTY...HARRIS...FORT BEND...AND WHARTON AT THIS HOUR. AS
EVIDENCED BY OUR EASTERN NEIGHBOR`S RECENT ACTIVITY...MOISTURE IS
ON ITS WAY UP AND FEEL THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SWING MORE
WET THAN DRY.

MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF TODAY...A MOISTENING
COLUMN IN THE 2.10-2.30" PWAT REALM WILL HANG OVER US THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. WEEKLY PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE (IF ANY)
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE AVERAGE
MID TO UPPER 80S. IF RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE ANY INDICATION...
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE THE THEME DE JOUR IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS.
WHETHER IT BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SW U.S-CENTERED 5H
RIDGE OR THE WESTERN EDGE OF RE-BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE...
EASTERN TEXAS HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A WEAKENED HEIGHT
FIELD. A WEAK NORTHERN GOM WAVE IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT WESTERN
RIDGING...POSSIBLY HANGING UP ALONG THE COAST AS AN INVERTED TROF.

GENERAL NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING WILL VEER MORE EASTERLY
WITH TIME THROUGH THURSDAY...REINFORCING THIS IDEA OF MORE LAPSE
RATE PROFILES (THAN MID-LEVEL WARMING)...ULTIMATELY PROVIDING A
BETTER HIGHWAY FOR DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE IN AND STAY A WHILE.
A MORE SATURATED COLUMN...WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE EARLY PM BAY/SEA BREEZE
AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAY`S CONVECTION...AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (HIGHER OMEGA/EFFICIENT 25-3H DIV)
ALL SUGGEST KEEPING POPS AT CHANCE OR ABOVE OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS.
THICKER CLOUD DECKS IN CONCERT WITH MORE AREAWIDE PRECIPITIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD OFFSET SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTERIOR DEW POINT AIR IN KEEPING
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN CHECK (OR UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA).

I wonder if that means we will see something like July 2007 all over again, a wet July?

[srainhoutx]

Noisy thunderstorm near NW Harris County. Storms to the E just may make it into the Metro Area.

[srainhoutx]

Picked up over an inch of rain with very gusty winds an frequent CG lightening at my location.

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

TXZ199-213-180115-
HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 706 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUMBLE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MEMORIAL...TOMBALL...
BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...SPRING VALLEY...SPRING...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HUMBLE...HILSHIRE
VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE AND ALDINE.

[wxdata]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
730 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 726 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED WIND A
GUST OF 60 MPH WITH A STORM OVER THE INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT AREA.
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM SPLASHTOWN TO ALDINE TO BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SPRING TO ALDINE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PEARLAND...
AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO THE MEDICAL CENTER...RELIANT PARK...MINUTE MAID PARK...
HOOKS AIRPORT...HERMAN PARK...THE GALLERIA...BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL
AIRPORT...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...THE WOODLANDS...STAFFORD...SPRING
VALLEY...SOUTHSIDE PLACE...SHENANDOAH...PORTER HEIGHTS...PINEY
POINT VILLAGE...OAK RIDGE NORTH...MISSOURI CITY...MEADOWS...JERSEY
VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HOUSTON...HEDWIG VILLAGE...
FRESNO...FIRST COLONY...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE AND BELLAIRE.

[wxdata]

HGX: 4 Nne Aldine [Harris Co, TX] nws employee reports TSTM WND GST of M0 MPH at 07:29 PM CDT -- 60 mph wind gust reported at intercontinental airport.

[wxdata]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
744 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

TXC039-157-201-339-180145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0057.100718T0044Z-100718T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-BRAZORIA TX-
744 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES PER HOUR WAS FALLING ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM SPRING TO ALDINE TO BROOKSIDE VILLAGE.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST BUT REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINE
IS LIKELY.

[wxdata]

Radar suggesting 1" hail near 288 and 610

[SusieinLP]

Got a nice cool breeze with a few gusts and a rumble of thunder...No rain but the drop in temp was quite nice while finishing up the yardwork,

[wxdata]

VERY gusty winds in the Galleria area!

[wxdata]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
759 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 755 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR RELIANT
PARK.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE
MEDICAL CENTER...MINUTE MAID PARK...MEMORIAL...HERMAN PARK...THE
GALLERIA...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...SPRING VALLEY...SOUTHSIDE
PLACE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HOUSTON...
HILSHIRE VILLAGE...HEDWIG VILLAGE AND BELLAIRE.

[Mr. T]

I'm up in Willis this weekend. I missed all the fun further to the south, but as the outflow boundary pushed through the temperatures dropped off a bit with a very nice east breeze.