January 2022

[don]

As i said earlier though until i see other models get onboard, im not buying it yet.By Sunday/Monday we should know if this is a real storm or another phantom.

[Kingwood36]

Knowing our luck it's just a phantom lol

[Cpv17]

My confidence level is only on about 15% right now.

[Kingwood36]

If it's still showing this by Tuesday then it's game on u think

[Stratton20]

if the GFS continues to show this into next week then it definitely could be on the table, my confidence level is around 20%, though the Gfs does have some decent support from its ensemble so it definitely bares watching

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff:

Wind Advisory in effect for Saturday.

Strong cold front will move across the area early Saturday morning. Low pressure will deepen over the MS valley and will eventually become a significant winter storm over the SE/E US this weekend. Cold front associated with this low pressure system will blast off the coast early Saturday and strong cold air advection will onset during the day. Winds will quickly increase into the 15-25mph range by mid morning and then 20-30mph with gusts of 40mph by midday into the afternoon hours. Stronger gusts may occur along the coast as the cold air mass overspreads the still warm nearshore waters.

Fire Weather:
RH will tumble post front falling into the 20’s and 30’s over the region. Recent freezes have killed and dried fine fuel loads (grasses) and ongoing drought conditions away from areas that saw rainfall last weekend are in place. Conditions are not fully met for a fire weather watch or red flag warning, but they are very close to being met across the area, especially with the dry air and strong winds. Any fires that start, especially west of I-45 could be hard to contain with the expected strong winds. Outdoor burning should be postponed this weekend until conditions improve.

High pressure moves east early next week with a warming trend, but this looks short lived as another strong cold front is forecasted to move across the region next Wednesday or Thursday. 1052mb arctic high pressure cell drops out of Canada early to middle next week and it is still in question if the majority of the arctic air moves E or ESE and side swipes TX or if some moves straight down the plains. Will need to keep a close eye on the late week forecast for next week as adjustments in the temperatures may be needed. Additionally, some of the operational models and their ensembles suggest moisture lingers in the cold air so something else to keep an eye on for late next week.

Jeff Lindner

[Cpv17]

if the GFS continues to show this into next week then it definitely could be on the table, my confidence level is around 20%, though the Gfs does have some decent support from its ensemble so it definitely bares watching

I want to see other models jump onboard but I don’t really expect it from the Euro. That model is usually very conservative.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yeah thats true, remember last february when the Euro tried to say no arctic blast and wasnt agreeing with the GFS

[walsean1]

Once I see some of our Local TV Mets mention wintry precip/Ice/or Snow, then the situation will bear watching. But we need cold air first in place.

[Cpv17]

Once I see some of our Local TV Mets mention wintry precip/Ice/or Snow, then the situation will bear watching. But we need cold air first in place.

Tv Mets are very conservative. The only one that’s not too conservative and tells it somewhat like it is, is David Paul.

[mcheer23]

Once I see some of our Local TV Mets mention wintry precip/Ice/or Snow, then the situation will bear watching. But we need cold air first in place.

Tv Mets are very conservative. The only one that’s not too conservative and tells it somewhat like it is, is David Paul.

After the freeze last year, I assume it would take longer for anything to get mentioned on TV. (If there is a need to)

[Cpv17]

12z GEFS is very aggressive with the cold air over us for next Friday:

[Stratton20]

The 12z Euro ensemble members are on board for the potential next friday system fwiw

[Kingwood36]

Do you have them? I can't seem to find them

[Stratton20]

11/50 members show snow for SE texas next friday but of course thats just speculation right now

[Stratton20]

18z GFS

[Cpv17]

18z GFS

The high dropping down isn’t as strong as previous runs.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep but still shows a wintry mess, the Euro ensembles are still on board with this, especially since the GFS is trying to develop a coastal low

[Kingwood36]

I figured it would be gone

[Stratton20]

Its not gone