January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
don
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

As i said earlier though until i see other models get onboard, im not buying it yet.By Sunday/Monday we should know if this is a real storm or another phantom.
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Knowing our luck it's just a phantom lol
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

My confidence level is only on about 15% right now.
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

If it's still showing this by Tuesday then it's game on u think
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

if the GFS continues to show this into next week then it definitely could be on the table, my confidence level is around 20%, though the Gfs does have some decent support from its ensemble so it definitely bares watching
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5589
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Morning update from Jeff:
Wind Advisory in effect for Saturday.

Strong cold front will move across the area early Saturday morning. Low pressure will deepen over the MS valley and will eventually become a significant winter storm over the SE/E US this weekend. Cold front associated with this low pressure system will blast off the coast early Saturday and strong cold air advection will onset during the day. Winds will quickly increase into the 15-25mph range by mid morning and then 20-30mph with gusts of 40mph by midday into the afternoon hours. Stronger gusts may occur along the coast as the cold air mass overspreads the still warm nearshore waters.

Fire Weather:
RH will tumble post front falling into the 20’s and 30’s over the region. Recent freezes have killed and dried fine fuel loads (grasses) and ongoing drought conditions away from areas that saw rainfall last weekend are in place. Conditions are not fully met for a fire weather watch or red flag warning, but they are very close to being met across the area, especially with the dry air and strong winds. Any fires that start, especially west of I-45 could be hard to contain with the expected strong winds. Outdoor burning should be postponed this weekend until conditions improve.

High pressure moves east early next week with a warming trend, but this looks short lived as another strong cold front is forecasted to move across the region next Wednesday or Thursday. 1052mb arctic high pressure cell drops out of Canada early to middle next week and it is still in question if the majority of the arctic air moves E or ESE and side swipes TX or if some moves straight down the plains. Will need to keep a close eye on the late week forecast for next week as adjustments in the temperatures may be needed. Additionally, some of the operational models and their ensembles suggest moisture lingers in the cold air so something else to keep an eye on for late next week.

Jeff Lindner
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:03 pm if the GFS continues to show this into next week then it definitely could be on the table, my confidence level is around 20%, though the Gfs does have some decent support from its ensemble so it definitely bares watching
I want to see other models jump onboard but I don’t really expect it from the Euro. That model is usually very conservative.
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

CPV17 yeah thats true, remember last february when the Euro tried to say no arctic blast😆😆 and wasnt agreeing with the GFS
walsean1
Posts: 139
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:50 pm
Contact:

Once I see some of our Local TV Mets mention wintry precip/Ice/or Snow, then the situation will bear watching. But we need cold air first in place.
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

walsean1 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:06 pm Once I see some of our Local TV Mets mention wintry precip/Ice/or Snow, then the situation will bear watching. But we need cold air first in place.
Tv Mets are very conservative. The only one that’s not too conservative and tells it somewhat like it is, is David Paul.
mcheer23
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 560
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:15 am
Location: Missouri City/ Sugar Land
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:13 pm
walsean1 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:06 pm Once I see some of our Local TV Mets mention wintry precip/Ice/or Snow, then the situation will bear watching. But we need cold air first in place.
Tv Mets are very conservative. The only one that’s not too conservative and tells it somewhat like it is, is David Paul.
After the freeze last year, I assume it would take longer for anything to get mentioned on TV. (If there is a need to)
Last edited by mcheer23 on Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

12z GEFS is very aggressive with the cold air over us for next Friday:

Image
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

The 12z Euro ensemble members are on board for the potential next friday system fwiw
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Do you have them? I can't seem to find them
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

11/50 members show snow for SE texas next friday but of course thats just speculation right now
Attachments
E1BA8D7A-B48E-4F0B-AA74-9C99BDE0B159.png
AFBD1513-3025-44FA-9A98-12A8942C7D47.png
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

18z GFS
Attachments
AC31B161-C376-4CAD-A2F9-DF29CE8E7480.png
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:48 pm18z GFS
The high dropping down isn’t as strong as previous runs.
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

CPV17 yep but still shows a wintry mess, the Euro ensembles are still on board with this, especially since the GFS is trying to develop a coastal low
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

I figured it would be gone
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Its not gone
Post Reply
  • Information