October 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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The WPC has significantly increased QPF over southeast Texas for the next 7 days.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 5:27 pm The WPC has significantly increased QPF over southeast Texas for the next 7 days.
GFS is betting on 2-3 inches near CLL. Euro and CMC are about 1 inch.

Still, gladly take it.


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tireman4
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Why do I have a feeling these totals may increase as we get closer to the event
Stratton20
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And I have a feeling its going to be a bust, ill believe it when i see it, feels like its been a year(obviously not) since i last saw an inch of rain here
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 6:48 pm And I have a feeling its going to be a bust, ill believe it when i see it, feels like its been a year(obviously not) since i last saw an inch of rain here
I don't think that this is going to bust because when it normally busts, the QPF totals go down within 24-48 hours of the event, but they actually gone up this time around.

On S2K, one of the members said "What kind of alternative universe is this :lol: "
Cpv17
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0z HRRR has a very quick squall line coming through late tomorrow/early Tuesday. Probably wouldn’t be much rain at the speed it’s moving. Maybe a 15 minute downpour.
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DoctorMu
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Iceresistance wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:53 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 6:48 pm And I have a feeling its going to be a bust, ill believe it when i see it, feels like its been a year(obviously not) since i last saw an inch of rain here
I don't think that this is going to bust because when it normally busts, the QPF totals go down within 24-48 hours of the event, but they actually gone up this time around.

On S2K, one of the members said "What kind of alternative universe is this :lol: "
Yeah, the front is going to move progressively, but Rosalyn is going to save our bacon - especially given it will be an evening/night event in SETX.
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DoctorMu
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If we don't see much rain tomorrow night, then late this week there's a bonus round with a trough and front.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

12Z upper air obs map at 250mb reveals subtle upper level ridging
aloft over Southeast Texas. Now check out the location of
Roslyn...it all makes sense where the upper level clouds are coming
in from now! Although we do have ridging aloft, the increased cloud
cover will limit solar insolation enough to keep most of us with a
peak temperature in the mid 80s this afternoon. It`s not out of
the question for isolated spots in the upper 80s if there are
enough breaks in the clouds. With surface high pressure still off
to our east and a deepening surface low in the Central Plains,
the pressure gradient remains tight leading to...yep you guessed
it...another day with gusts up to 25-30 mph. This LLJ will also
play a key role for the rainy/stormy setup on Monday/Tuesday
(more on that in the long term discussion).

Cloud cover will continue to increase as the remnants from Roslyn
moves in towards Southeast Texas. PW values increase at least
above the 75th percentile (~1.45") by tonight.
With mostly cloudy
skies overnight combined with steady WAA through onshore flow,
you can imagine that our low temperatures will be on the mild
side...and you`d be correct! Temperatures on Sunday night will
mainly be in the low 70s with mid 70s along the coast. Another
consequence of the moisture steadily increasing is that eventually
we`ll have enough moisture to generate isolated rain showers. As
of right now, this looks to be the most favorable near Galveston
Bay with chances expanding towards the other end of the coastline
(towards Matagorda Bay) later on Sunday night. There`ll still be
lots of dry air aloft above 2km, so anything that falls will be on
the light side today. Monday is a different story...

By Monday afternoon, we`ll start to see the effects of having
numerous factors in place that enhance our chances for rain. PW
values surging above the 90th percentile (~1.72") as remnants from
Roslyn moves in, an upper level trough with a strong jet streak
entering near the Texas Panhandle, a strong shortwave trough also
near the Texas Panhandle, and a surface cold front pushing through
the state from west to east. The bulk of the rainfall will occur
late Monday and into Tuesday,
but we`ll have enough moisture and PVA
to generate some showers/storms ahead of the cold front especially
for areas north of I-10 and west of I-45 on Monday
morning/afternoon. On the positive side, we could really use this
rainfall and it`ll keep temperatures slightly cooler than Sunday as
most locations will only reach the low 80s. Now let`s get on to
the main event and discuss the cold front and severe weather
potential...coming up right after this brief commercial break.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

Welcome back! We left off with talk of a variety of factors all
lining up with the end result being increased rain chances for
Monday. Going into Monday night, the shortwave trough continues to
push eastward through Texas and tilts slightly negative as it
does so. In the upper levels, a jet streak on the eastern flank of
the trough will be in the perfect placement for upper level
divergence (right entrance region) in the overnight hours.
Remember the LLJ that was mentioned earlier? It`ll range from
about 25-40 knots at 850mb which explains our 0-6km bulk shear of
40-60 knots.

So, it`s no question that we`ll have the moisture, lift, and
shear in place.
The instability is lacking a bit...that`s not to
say that it`ll be zero though. Any of the strong storms that
develop along the frontal boundary will have the potential to mix
stronger winds down to the surface, so damaging winds is the
primary threat. With plenty of shear in place, especially at the low
and mid levels, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out either.

The window for potential severe weather and the best chance of
rainfall will be late Monday into Tuesday morning as the cold
front gets a nudge from the shortwave trough and pushes through.

Drier and cooler air filters in in the wake of the front as
surface high pressure builds in over the Central and Southern
Plains. PW values decrease to below the 10th percentile (~0.55")
by Tuesday afternoon. With that we can expect another taste of
Fall-like conditions with daytime temperatures in 70s and lows in
the 40s/50s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday will be a
transition day as surface high pressure pushes off to the east and
induces onshore flow once again.

Global models are still in agreement on a coastal trough
developing ahead of another approaching cold front at the end of
the week. This moisture convergence leads to PW values surging
back above the 90th percentile by Friday (snip-snap-snip-snap). As
you can expect, PoPs return to the grids Friday with the
potential for widespread rainfall. With setups like this, we
could see rain ahead of the front, along the front, and with
wraparound moisture depending on how far south the surface low
tracks.
There is fairly good agreement on the timing of the next
cold front being late Friday, but as per usual it`s a bit early
to set that in stone. Drier air does fill in behind the front
leaving us with another cool weekend. I`ll just leave it out there
that there`s a fairly good chance that after Monday afternoon,
the eastern half of Southeast TX (east of I-45) may not see a
temperature above 80 degrees till next week... ♥

Batiste
Stratton20
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Starting to see hints in the models of a potential arctic blast entering the US around the first week of November, something to watch for sure
Cromagnum
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 10:17 pm 0z HRRR has a very quick squall line coming through late tomorrow/early Tuesday. Probably wouldn’t be much rain at the speed it’s moving. Maybe a 15 minute downpour.
That's what I was referring to before. The front is going to plow through so it's likely not going to rain a lot.
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jasons2k
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Update from Jeff:
Strong to severe thunderstorms possible tonight.

Much advertised frontal system will move across Texas today and tonight. Remains of eastern Pacific hurricane Roslyn now crossing the Rio Grande and helping to develop scattered showers along the middle TX coast. Some of the short term guidance develops this activity a bit more this morning across our western counties from Matagorda Bay to the Brazos Valley area. Short wave will dig into west Texas later today and move eastward this evening and overnight resulting in a fast moving cold frontal passage over the state. With incoming 60kt mid level jet later this afternoon over top of a 20-30kt low level jet shear values will become increasingly favorable for low level rotation this evening into the overnight hours. With that said, instability is somewhat lacking, and while it does not take a lot of energy in the cool season months to produce strong to severe thunderstorms, this could be the missing piece for tonight for a more widespread outbreak of weather.

As mid level jet punches eastward this evening, the surface cold front will accelerate toward the east and expect a broken line of thunderstorm to form along the boundary. High resolution guidance has varying locations and intensities of this line with some forming the line near the US 59 corridor and others near the western edge of the low level jet from Victoria to near College Station. Think the more western solution is more likely with the line becoming more solid as it progresses eastward. Main concern will be strong winds with the leading edge of the line as energy aloft may get transported down to the surface in the stronger convection. Low level winds may back just enough over portions of SE TX to favor an increasing tornado threat with the line or any cells that form just ahead of the line. The highest threat for tornadoes appears in the area along and north of I-10. SPC has the entire area outlooked in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for tonight, but think the threat is likely a bit more isolated than suggested in the outlook given the lacking instability.

Front will move quickly offshore Tuesday morning with clearing skies and a much drier air mass filtering into the region. Lows will fall back into the 40’s for mid week with highs in the 70’s.

Next system quickly approaches from the west Thursday and Friday and a coastal trough forms along the lower TX coast which will help to induce significant moisture advection across the area by Thursday. Expect a quick increase in clouds as early as Wednesday night and then increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from south to north on Thursday. Rains will linger into Friday with the next frontal passage expected Friday afternoon. Could see some heavy rainfall with this weather event toward the late week period.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Cromagnum
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the surface cold front will accelerate toward the east and expect a broken line of thunderstormto form along the boundary.
All I need to know.
Stratton20
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Boy the medium-long range GFS and end of the CMC runs looks beautiful!😁
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DoctorMu
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A lot of the energy is north. Maybe a brief shower tonight.

There's upper level moisture from Rosalyn, but there's a large tong of mid-level capping slip sliding east:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Maybe we'll get some uplifting tonight.
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jasons2k
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If this one busts why would the next one be any different? 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Oct 24, 2022 1:34 pm A lot of the energy is north. Maybe a brief shower tonight.

There's upper level moisture from Rosalyn, but there's a large tong of mid-level capping slip sliding east:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Maybe we'll get some uplifting tonight.
Rosalyn will pretty much be a non-factor here.
Cpv17
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And just like that, looks like rain chances are trending back down. This is why I’ve been saying I don’t think we’re going to get any significant widespread rains around here till spring. The +SOI combined with the La Niña is just not a favorable setup for rain in our area.
Stratton20
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Just released from the CPC, interesting 🧐🧐
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Oct 24, 2022 2:25 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Oct 24, 2022 1:34 pm A lot of the energy is north. Maybe a brief shower tonight.

There's upper level moisture from Rosalyn, but there's a large tong of mid-level capping slip sliding east:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Maybe we'll get some uplifting tonight.
Rosalyn will pretty much be a non-factor here.

We just got a shower of teeny tiny tropical raindrops courtesy of Rosalyn in CLL. She's been sheared to near death. That's about it. Will probably just trigger brown patch. :lol:
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