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I do not like what im seeing in the GFS, ICON and CMC, they all have the system ejecting further north, and not as south like the EURO, still plenty of time to change but not liking the trends in the models, SE ridge is nosing in too much

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:52 pm I do not like what im seeing in the GFS, ICON and CMC, they all have the system ejecting further north, and not as south like the EURO, still plenty of time to change but not liking the trends in the models, SE ridge is nosing in too much

We’re gonna need some rain here soon. I’ve only had about one inch in the past 6 or 7 weeks.

I think there will be snow in Texas near the end of the month. We'll see how far south it goes. Need a bigger dip and less ejection north.

I like that 00z Euro run

If we do get a winter storm setup it will mostly likely be where it always is. West Texas and the northern half of the state. We just don't get lucky 9 times out of 10 down here. It is what it is

The 6z GFS has snow close to Laredo but nothing here lol

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:52 pm I do not like what im seeing in the GFS, ICON and CMC, they all have the system ejecting further north, and not as south like the EURO, still plenty of time to change but not liking the trends in the models, SE ridge is nosing in too much

I would recommend stop focusing on every single run. The whiplash is exhausting. Look at patterns and old rules of thumb. Yes, the ridge is going to hold for awhile. There is the potential for another dump coming down in early February but that is looking less likely to me now than it was a few days ago. Patience…

jasons2k im looking for trends not just one run, thats all, the trend has not been in our favor, yes im aware it can still change, at least not for any shot at wintry weather( but it can still change) , and the trend has been for the storm system or low to eject to the north of us, that still is the case, ensembles mostly agree as well, but we will see, the trough position is different on the 06z GFS, we just need that trough to dig more SW

Meanwhile a tornado watch for north and east parts of SE Texas.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 24
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
900 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and southern Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
East Texas

* Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 900 AM
until 400 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A few supercells should intensify within a broken band of
thunderstorms from parts of east Texas into central Arkansas. This
band should gradually shift east this afternoon. Primary threats are
tornadoes and damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of Little Rock AR to
35 miles south of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

The one day i leave my umbrella in my apartment, i paid the price for it haha!

Pow Ponder
https://youtu.be/1RPzSZdbZ3M

Remember snow was never in the forecast next week. Yes the setup is there if everything comes together but that has never been the likely outcome. Just a possibility, doesn't make since to be upset about something that's only shown up in a couple of model runs. I will post these model runs sometimes not because I belive there likely to happen,but to show the overall patterns you should be looking for in the models when trying to determine if there's a chance of frozen precip down here or not.

We still should be watching next week's system but lower your expectations if you thought it was likely that we will see snow next week. Regardless there will be more opportunities beyond next week with the El Nino like pattern in place. The next system to watch after next week's system is around the end of the month around the 28th-30th.(very early but looks like a winter weather setup more conductive for the southern half of the state.)

Don in my personal opinion, I believe this next storm system around the 25th, wont give us a shot at wintry precip, however it should set the cold air in place for additional disturbances to pass through, setting up an overrunning event, this is reflected in all major global models as well as POW Ponder talking about it as well

I think there will be a slow step down process regarding temps.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:32 pm I think there will be a slow step down process regarding temps.

Step down is much more preferred than a sharp shot into the teens with no snow pack to our north.

That front just came through Weimar 30 minutes ago and my God I shouldn’t have run early this morning. It feels so much better now.

This mornings weather was tough on me. Garbage weather, garbage time. That 7 am run was like running through microwaved dog ****.

sambucol wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:15 pm Pow Ponder
https://youtu.be/1RPzSZdbZ3M

Density is your friend.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:48 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:32 pm I think there will be a slow step down process regarding temps.

Step down is much more preferred than a sharp shot into the teens with no snow pack to our north.

Otherwise, it's shallow and shifts east and modifies rapidly.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:52 pm That front just came through Weimar 30 minutes ago and my God I shouldn’t have run early this morning. It feels so much better now.

This mornings weather was tough on me. Garbage weather, garbage time. That 7 am run was like running through microwaved dog ****.

The walk jog with the dog will be this afternoon as the milder/cooler air overperforms already.

Major winter storm northern half of the state on the 12z Euro for next week.