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Big change on the GFS. The cutoff (500mb) is not nearly as strong. Andrew can throw up the charts for us...

srainhoutx wrote:Big change on the GFS. The cutoff (500mb) is not nearly as strong. Andrew can throw up the charts for us...

132:



500mb vort (for UL)

hmm weird seems to be a hybrid of 95l and some pacific disturbance:

Wow:

This is no longer 95L that makes landfall. The initial NE jump is from a phantom storm the gfs creates behind 95L (landfall Florida Peninsula). If it didn't do that shift most likely a LA hit:




I told you srain I had a feeling

NOGAPS heading north at the end. Very similar to GFS but farther west. Still think the GFS run is wack:

Hehehe cmc is funny (wow i need some sleep):

Good morning folks ...... NHC still has Code Red @ 60 Percent for development this morning ..... as we all have been saying .... should be an interesting weekend of scratching our heads!!!!!! Have a great day everyone.......



SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

Good morning...RECON mission today...up to 80% as well...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

12Z Tracks...

Looking more organized and RECON is investigating. I would not be surprised to see a TD declared shortly...

I think we have a tropical storm if wunderground.com is correct about recon readings

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 15:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 15:26:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°52'N 75°37'W (13.8667N 75.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 296 miles (476 km) to the SSE (165°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the N (9°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 90° at 36kts (From the E at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 193m (633ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 196m (643ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:18:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NNW (339°) from the flight level center

Big difference on the 12Z GFS with the Upper (cuttoff) Low. It is no longer transient and certainly not as deep. Expect some changes ahead.

12Z GFS @ hour 204...

I agree with you Steve. Changes ahead. Days ahead that help speed up the head balding process.

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

The GFS takes the current vort in the Caribbean into the Yucatan and on into the BoC and dissapates, while another vort swings E from the EPAC and becomes a more dominate low that head up the W Coast of FL. Beyond that the GFS is almost silly to look at.

10/4

If this gets into the BOC and survives, folks from Mexico to LA should pay close attention. Death over land in CA would be nice.

Snippet from the Lake Charles NWS AFD, “LONG TERM...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR DRAGGED INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF THE MUCH COLDER GFS
WITH THE EURO ON TEMPS NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PROTECT THE NORTHERN GULF FROM ANY TROPICAL
SYSTEMS...WHICH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT EMERGING NORTH OUT
OF THE CARRIBEAN. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLDER GFS COULD BEAR
FRUIT BY WEEK`S END AS THESE SYSTEMS MERGE WELL TO OUR EAST. CHOSE
NOT TO CHANGE THE GOING FCST TEMPS MUCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES
BUT EVEN THE MID 80S OF NEXT WEEK`S MAX TEMPS WILL GIVE MUCH
RELIEF. FCSTED TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO, AN INDICATION OF HOW
WARM AND DRY WE HAVE BEEN.”

This far out I’m not so sure it is wise to make such a bold statement.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 16:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 16:30:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°48'N 75°56'W (13.8N 75.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 296 miles (476 km) to the S (169°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the ENE (64°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 86° at 33kts (From the E at ~ 38.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 206m (676ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 210m (689ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:13:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the NE (44°) from the flight level center