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Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:28 pm Typhoon Koinu establishes new Taiwan wind record, sets sights on southeastern China
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... na/1584774

213 mph on Orchid Island. It is the second highest wind speed measured. It will have to be verified.

This is the first I’ve even heard about it lol

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:28 pm Typhoon Koinu establishes new Taiwan wind record, sets sights on southeastern China
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... na/1584774

213 mph on Orchid Island. It is the second highest wind speed measured. It will have to be verified.

There goes my DHGate jersey supply.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2023 2:51 pm Not sure that above normal precip forecast the CPC put out for October will verify. Next couple weeks look pretty dry.

On the bright side, that means good eclipse viewing potential on the 14th.

The gfs is trending more inland for some good rains next week from epac Lidia fwiw.

Several of the models are now taking moisture from Tropical Storm Lidia over the Coastal Bend/ SE Texas fwiw.

Need it to trend more north, still too far south for anyone but the coastal communities for getting a good soaking

18Z GFS showing some decent QPF south of I-10 from Lidia.Especially in the coastal bend region.

don wrote: ↑Sat Oct 07, 2023 5:37 pm 18Z GFS showing some decent QPF south of I-10 from Lidia.Especially in the coastal bend region.

Euro and Canadian have more southerly solutions. Ensembles are in the middle. Mostly a south of I-10 impact is a safe bet.

The second half of the game sucked. SOS.

But DP of 41°F = golden.

The weather was great! Too bad that was about the only good thing in that game! Jimbo is going bye bye, hes done in CS

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 07, 2023 7:58 pm The weather was great! Too bad that was about the only good thing in that game! Jimbo is going bye bye, hes done in CS

The game basically came down to them not capitalizing on the fumble recovery in the 4th q. Was a great atmosphere though. Best atmosphere I’ve ever been to for any sporting event. NFL games don’t even get half as close as that. 12th man helped cause 9 false starts. Amazing!

Looks like that moisture will stay south of us out in the Gulf for now. Only one model run that I saw (the 18z GFS) had it impacting us.

As Dr. Mu would say
It’s a chamber of Commerce day.

A little haiku for you.

Go Astros!!
Go Red Raiders!!
Wreck ‘em Tech!!

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 12:06 pm As Dr. Mu would say
It’s a chamber of Commerce day.

A little haiku for you.

Go Astros!!
Go Red Raiders!!
Wreck ‘em Tech!!

There’s a guy from my high school in El Campo that just committed to Texas Tech for football a few months ago.

GFS and the Euro (less aggressive) sticking to their guns on Tuesday/Wednesday moisture from EPAC. NWS has only a 30% chance of rain in CLL. A largely south of I-10 event.


Jason has it right - the perfect Chamber of Commerce Day. Crystalline azure skies. DP = 39°F, light northerly breeze. No brown patch yet in the front lawn. Enjoy!

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 12:13 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 12:06 pm As Dr. Mu would say
It’s a chamber of Commerce day.

A little haiku for you.

Go Astros!!
Go Red Raiders!!
Wreck ‘em Tech!!

There’s a guy from my high school in El Campo that just committed to Texas Tech for football a few months ago.

That young man made a very good decision
Going to Tech is one of the best decisions I ever made.

SJT starting to pump in that EPAC moisture and clouds.




https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24



https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

Looks like A + PNA looks to pretty much become established for the rest of the month and probably into november, warmth out west, central us (including texas) and the eastern us should be on the wetter/ cooler aide with frequent troughing coming down

Through the 22nd: 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks look cooler, but a little drier.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

For the moment, high pressure remains centered over the northwestern
Gulf Coast, with light and variable winds occurring across the
entire area. As tropical Pacific moisture streams across Mexico and
Deep South Texas at high elevations, a good chunk of our area is
catching the fringe of that moisture channel, apparent in the high
cirrus clouds overhead. For now, we remain largely dominated by the
cooler, drier post-frontal airmass that reigned through the weekend.
However, that should be expected to change over the next couple of
days.

The grip of this drier air is already somewhat precarious. Though
mesoanalysis shows the large majority of the our area with
precipitable water below three-quarters of an inch and dewpoints in
the 40s, those values are starting to nudge upwards towards an inch
around Matagorda Bay with dewpoints around 50. Drop much more down
the coast into the neighboring Corpus Christi forecast area and
dewpoints quickly boost up closer to 60 and PWAT values safely above
an inch. We can expect that type of environment to edge its way
northward as the surface high retreats eastward and onshore flow re-
establishes itself across our area. This process really can be
expected to inconsistently begin later this morning, and become
established pretty securely by evening.

The immediate, and most obvious, consequence of this will be the
increase in moisture and humidity as a low level connection with
Gulf air returns. About 24 hours from now, we can expect dewpoints
about 10 degrees higher and PWATs ranging from 0.7 inches in the
east to over 1.5 inches in the Matagorda Bay area. This isn`t likely
to mean a lot as far as this morning`s lows - it`s already 59
degrees at the office at 0230, or for rain chances today.
However, we should be able to see the harbingers of more significant
changes as the day goes on. Look for lower clouds to edge up around
Matagorda Bay this evening, and spread northward across the area
through the day tomorrow. Increased rain chances will follow behind
that, but delayed by several hours. We may see some of the first
isolated showers around Matagorda Bay late tonight, with higher rain
chances gradually spreading from south to north tomorrow and
tomorrow night.

Rain will be most likely closer to the coast, particularly around
and south of I-10. This is due to a gradually organizing coastal
low, currently in the Bay of Campeche. It is expected to draw
northward, and pull itself together - aided by moisture and
vorticity from what will be the future remnants of what are now
tropical storms Lidia and Max off the Pacific Mexican coast. By the
time I turn things over to the long term forecaster, this low will
be making its way past Brownsville and Padre Island, accelerating to
the northeast. This low will face significant barriers to developing
as a tropical cyclone from the broader synoptic environment.

But...that`s not particularly important here, either. Whether it
becomes a heavily sheared tropical cyclone or not, the end result in
our area is the same. This low will bring a big slug of moisture to
the Texas Gulf coast tomorrow into Wednesday with high rain chances.
How much rainfall will be very dependent on the precise evolution
and track of the surface low. For now, guidance is keeping the
heaviest rainfall offshore, but also suggests that coastal
convergence will help boost rainfall totals for those within a
county or two of the Gulf. This would also boost potential for
isolated higher amounts as well. For the most part, this rainfall
should continue to be beneficial after the summer`s flash drought.
Those around low-lying/poor drainage spots near the coast, however,
would do well to keep up with the latest weather info for tomorrow
night. That area is where isolated problem spots could emerge.

Luchs

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

A wet weather pattern is to prevail in Southeast Texas Wednesday
into Thursday as a few features work together to bring rain over
the area.

A coastal low is progged to move eastward across the Western Gulf
on Wednesday and is expected to continue bring good amounts of
low to mid level moisture inland. As a result, the surface PWs
could remain in the 1.7-2.2 inch range through at least Wednesday
afternoon. Several impulses and vort maxes associated to Tropical
Storm Lidia, which is to be situated over the Mexican mountains
during this timeframe, will be moving overhead and be able to tap
into the moisture, giving us a good chance for scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms early Wednesday
morning and afternoon. By Wednesday evening, the aforementioned
coastal low and bulk of the associated moisture will shift
eastward, decreasing the low to mid level moisture over our area
and resulting in lower rain chances Wednesday night into
Thursday. There might be another uptick in rain chances Thursday
night into Friday morning as moisture converges over us and a
little more lift is provided by the next cold front. Based on the
latest Global solutions, the front is expected to push across
Southeast Texas sometime early Friday morning, possibly reaching
the coast by the late morning or early afternoon hours. Once the
front moves through, cooler dry air will quickly follow behind it,
ending the chance for rain. CAA and high pressure will build
during the weekend, gifting us another beautiful sunny and cool
weekend.

As for temperatures, Wednesday will be on the cooler side with the
help of the rain and cloud cover. The highs are forecast to be in
the mid to upper 70s areawide. For Thursday and Friday, warm air
advection ahead of the next frontal passage will increase
temperatures and likely result in highs between the mid to upper
80s. Once the front pushes through Southeast Texas, cooler air
moving into the area will decrease the highs back into the 70s for
the upcoming weekend. The lows during the weekend will decrease
into the low 50s to low 60s range.

Cotto (24)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

VFR with high cirrus throughout. Cloud bases at 250 for most of
the period, but beginning to decrease from SW to NE after
midnight, though still high-level through this forecast cycle.
Light SW/VRB winds this morning increasing to 5-10 kts this
afternoon while backing more southerly. Light winds again tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

Light onshore flow and low seas expected today and Tuesday. Winds
will increase and turn E and seas will build Tuesday evening into
Wednesday as a coastal low develops over the Western Gulf of
Mexico. Caution flags and Advisories will likely be required. We
will need to keep an eye on the water levels over the bays on
Wednesday morning into Thursday as guidance is currently
suggesting levels to be just above 3 feet MLLW. The low is
expected to gradually move to our east Wednesday night into
Thursday and winds will gradually relax and seas will decrease as
it does so. A cold front is progged to move into the coastal
waters sometime Friday...expect moderate to strong N winds late
Friday night through at least Saturday night.

As for rain chances, expected periods of showers and
thunderstorms starting on Tuesday and likely to continue through
the passage of the front on Friday. The heaviest period is still
expected to be Tuesday into Wednesday.

Cotto (24)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 64 83 66 / 0 0 10 40
Houston (IAH) 84 66 82 66 / 0 0 20 60
Galveston (GLS) 80 75 82 71 / 0 10 40 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cotto (24)