June Ends - Hottest on Record

[tireman4]

Srainhoutx:

"even a frontal boundary may approach from the N around mid next week"

Woo Hoo...that will cool us off to 95 for daytime highs....Cool....LOL

[kellybell4770]

at least it's supposed to be partly cloudy the next few days - a little relief from the direct sunlight

[Ptarmigan]

This drought is up there with 1917-1918 and 1884-1886 drought. Early 1886 was really dry from what I have read. Also, three hurricanes made landfall on Texas that year in 1886. The 1884-1886 drought is considered one of the worst droughts in Texas history.

Severe Droughts In Texas
1884-1886
1917-1918
1950-1957

[tireman4]

Proving, yet once again, that all weather is cyclical....

[Andrew]

A bit of hopeful news regarding our rain chances this morning. The models are converging on a solution that will break down the Upper Ridge beginning early next week. While it is still days away and we have been down this road too many times only to see that mirage disappear, it does look like deep tropical moisture will begin pooling in the Western Gulf and even a frontal boundary may approach from the N around mid next week. I see that texaskaz has some concern over outdoor wedding plans on the 25th. We'll keep an eye on things and keep everyone advised.

Gfs locates the moisture from the gulf but sends only a little this way while sending the rest eastward.

[svrwx0503]

12z extended range models still show a glimmer of hope in about 7-8 days or around the middle of next week into next weekend as they continue to show a weakness developing across east Texas with much deeper tropical moisture (pws in the 1.75-2.00'' range) surging into the region from the Gulf. There is also evidence of some possible upper level vorticity along with cooling 850mb temps which should help enhance our diurnal sea breeze type convection if this scenario pans out. Right now it hardly looks like a major rain event, but it could give us several days of at least some scattered activity around along with higher humidity and lighter winds to temporarily alleviate the fire danger. I will be keeping my fingers crossed!

[srainhoutx]

As svrwx0503 pointed out, a bit more hope via the 12Z model runs. There is rather good agreement on the break down of the Upper Ridge. Also of note is an area of low pressure that the HPC has added today in the medium range weather maps down in the Bay of Campeche...

[wxman57]

I remain hopeful of rain - but I'm not holding my breath just yet.

[jasons2k]

I just ran across this on the Chronicle's website with some photos of the drought:

http://blog.chron.com/shannontompkins/2 ... d-present/

[srainhoutx]

Another hot day in NW Harris County. DW Hooks reporting 100.3 this past hour.

[Kludge]

I remain hopeful of rain - but I'm not holding my breath just yet.

Aw c'mon.... hold it. At least through hour 240.

[Andrew]

Really long range but lookie here:

240:


Either way the gfs and many other models seem to break down the ridge late next week and send it west. This could leave us right on the edge of the ridge allowing for a good flow of moisture and maybe even a surprise or two but that is too early to determine at this point.

[srainhoutx]

The models are in good agreement on a change in the weather pattern now beginning early next week. After a very long period of hot and dry, it appears we are headed toward a more active wetter period as a trough will develop and move slowly E and deep tropical moisture that is currently in the Western Caribbean will begin to stream N and NW into the Gulf and on into TX. Early this morning Austin/San Antonio NWS (Happy Birthday to Portastorm, by the way) has an AFD that looks like a sight for sore eyes for those wishing for some badly needed rain...

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDES EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROF DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW GULF LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SLIGHT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE DIMINISHES. THE SEA
BREEZE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING ON TUESDAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEXAS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN THAT
COULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.



Now for the not so good news. It does look like we will get very close to Heat Adivisory criteria this weekend so be very careful out there. Houston/Galveston NWS is still be very cautious, and rightly so after an extended period of little/no rain and are not getting too excited...yet...

HOWEVER WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...THE
MAIN ISSUE THIS FCST PERIOD COULD BE INCREASED HEAT INDICIES WITH
THE INCREASING HUMIDITIES. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SET
RIGHT ATOP OF THE AREA AND THE ELEVATED DWPTS...WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON TEMP TRENDS FRI/SAT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT ADVSY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUT LONG RANGE MODELS ARE KEEPING HOPE ALIVE
FOR THE CHANCES OF RAIN/ RELIEF. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
BE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND (AND BRINGING THE VERY
HOT TEMPS) IS PROGGED TO SHIFT E/NE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS WE SHOULD SEE THE GULF OPENING UP BY DURING
THE MID/END OF NEXT WEEK AND A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...MAYBE.

[unome]

weather.com has a good article on America's greatest weather killer:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather- ... 2011-06-15

be smart in this heat, stay safe

[srainhoutx]

It's rather interesting to see how moisture from a future Hurricane Beatiz (EPAC) as well as deep tropical moisture flowing N and NW out the Caribbean and a frontal boundary may all come together to provide for our increasing rain chances next week...

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

                 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

   ...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

         ...RECORD JUNE HEAT EXACERBATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS...

           ...HOBBY AIRPORT HAS HAD ONLY ONE DAY OF
            MEASURABLE RAIN OUT OF THE LAST 92 DAYS...

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUED IT`S STRANGLEHOLD ON SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LAST SEVEN DAYS WERE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE AGAIN QUITE WARM
WITH THE MERCURY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100`S.
HOUSTON HAS ALREADY RECORDED FOUR DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. HOUSTON TYPICALLY REACHES 100 DEGREES OR
HIGHER ONLY THREE TIMES A YEAR. THUS FAR IN JUNE...CROCKETT HAS HAD
11 DAYS AND HUNTSVILLE HAS HAD EIGHT DAYS WITH THE MERCURY AT OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH WINDIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
HAVE EXACERBATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOUSTON RECORDED 100 DEGREES ON
JUNE 2 2011. THIS IS THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN
CITY HISTORY. A FEW DAYS LATER...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SOARED TO 105
DEGREES IN HOUSTON AND 99 DEGREES IN GALVESTON. HOUSTON ESTABLISHED A
NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS
WARMEST JUNE TEMPERATURE OF 104 DEGREES. GALVESTON TIED IT`S WARMEST
JUNE TEMPERATURE WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 99 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE FIRST 15 DAYS OF JUNE IS THE WARMEST ON
RECORD FOR THE THREE OF THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES. BELOW ARE
THE FIVE WARMEST AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 1ST THROUGH JUNE
15TH:

          CITY OF      HOUSTON      COLLEGE      GALVESTON
          HOUSTON      HOBBY        STATION

          98.2 2011    96.5 2011    99.3 1911    91.4 2011
          96.1 1902    94.9 1963    98.9 2011    90.5 2008
          95.6 1911    94.8 1998    98.0 1958    89.9 1875
          94.7 1990    93.7 1953    96.4 1960    89.3 1881
          94.5 2008    93.6 2008    95.9 1953    88.9 2000

THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS ENTERED UNCHARTED TERRITORY. HOUSTON HAS
ENDURED FOUR CONSECUTIVE MONTHS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
TALLIED IN EACH MONTH. THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS NEVER RECORDED THREE
CONSECUTIVE MONTHS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...LET ALONE FOUR
CONSECUTIVE MONTHS. SINCE JANUARY 26TH...THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS
RECEIVED 2.05 INCHES OF RAIN AND HOBBY AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED EVEN
LESS...A PALTRY 1.41 INCHES OF RAIN. HOBBY AIRPORT HAS ONLY RECORDED
ONE DAY WITH MEASURABLE RAIN OUT OF THE LAST 92 DAYS (0.19 INCHES ON
MAY 12TH). OTHERWISE...THE FEW RAIN EVENTS THAT HAVE CLIPPED THE
AIRPORT HAVE ONLY DROPPED TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE NWS OFFICE
IN LEAGUE CITY HAS REPORTED SIX DAYS OF RAIN SINCE MARCH 15TH WITH A
DISCOURAGING 92 DAY RAINFALL TALLY OF 0.36 INCHES.

IT IS STILL THE DRIEST OCTOBER 1ST THROUGH JUNE 16TH IN CITY OF
HOUSTON WEATHER HISTORY. HOBBY AIRPORT IS ALSO ENDURING ITS DRIEST
PERIOD ON RECORD. COLLEGE STATION REMAINED THE SECOND DRIEST PERIOD
ON RECORD AND DANEVANG REMAINED THE FIFTH DRIEST PERIOD ON RECORD.
EVEN GALVESTON...WHICH RECEIVED SOME MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS IN
DECEMBER AND JANUARY IS ENDURING IT`S SIXTH DRIEST PERIOD ON RECORD.

                 DRIEST OCTOBER 1 - JUNE 16 (258 DAYS)

  COLLEGE         CITY OF              HOUSTON           DANEVANG
  STATION         HOUSTON (IAH)        HOBBY

  9.15  1925      12.84  2011          16.07  2011      12.22  1918
  9.79  2011      15.05  1917          16.97  1956      12.67  1956
 13.52  1917      16.84  1951          17.66  1971      12.71  1954
 14.84  1951      17.57  1956          18.25  1988      12.80  1963
 15.50  1956      17.75  1996          19.91  2006      12.90  2011+

+ DANEVANG WAS MISSING DAILY DATA FOR 1906...1917 AND 1925

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=0&max=61

[srainhoutx]

Sage advice from Brownsville NWS this afternoon and certainly why forecasters are reluctant to jump fully onboard any rain chances...

WITH THIS SAID SOME OF THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING A MUCH DEEPER FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ COULD GET
PULLED NORTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN
INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCES ANYWHERE FROM THE WESTERN GULF...THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.
UNCERTAINTY RESIDES WITH THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION
FORMATION IN THE FORM OF STREAMER SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SPREADING NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
ADD SILENT 10 POPS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE
WEEKEND. WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN THIS LONG TERM DROUGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIVE BY THE SAYING WHEN IN DOUBT LEAVE IT OUT. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO POSITIVELY...THINK...RAIN.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
221 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171400-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
221 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOWER 100`S FURTHER INLAND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER
AS WELL AND THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 101 TO 104 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRENDING WARMER
DUE TO HIGHER HUMIDITY AND STRONGER WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOWER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH OR EXCEED 108 DEGREES FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW THIS
THRESHOLD.

THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH AND VERY DRY GROUND FUELS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF CAMPING OR
DOING OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE A
FIRE. THE RISK FOR WILDFIRES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN HIGH.

ALL PEOPLE IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OR
SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE TODAY. WHEN POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS
ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING OR MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. KNOW
THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR
LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH
ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED
OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED
TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 911.

EACH YEAR...A NUMBER OF FATALITIES OCCUR NATIONWIDE DUE TO CHILDREN
ACCIDENTALLY BEING LEFT IN VEHICLES DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. IN THE
PAST DOZEN YEARS...500 CHILDREN HAVE DIED DUE TO HYPERTHERMIA AFTER
BEING LEFT IN EXTREMELY HOT VEHICLES. NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS
UNATTENDED IN A VEHICLE...NOT EVEN FOR A MINUTE. REMEMBER...BEAT THE
HEAT...CHECK THE BACKSEAT.

[srainhoutx]

HGX regarding any rain chances next week:

AFTER THE HOT AND RAIN FREE WEEKEND...COULD RAIN BE ON THE
HORIZON? A STRONG TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AND THIS SHUNTS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
HEIGHTS LOOK LOW ENOUGH ON TUESDAY TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE. MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT INCREASES
WED/THU FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2 INCHES AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WEAK CAPPING THAT WILL BE EASILY OVERCOME WITH MODEST DAYTIME
HEATING. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO CHANCE ON WED/THU AND POPS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED IF MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO GROW.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF
LATE IN THE WEEK. NEITHER THE CANADIAN OR ECMWF SHOW THIS UPPER
FEATURE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND THE
EC BUILDS THE RIDGE WESTWARD ON FRI THUS PUSHING THE MOISTURE WEST
AND AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND BUT AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.

[Portastorm]

I hope they're wrong ... meanwhile the heat goes on. Large brushfire burning this afternoon in Leander, just northwest of Austin. So far some 200 homes have been evacuated.