May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Paul Robison

TexasBreeze wrote:The summer of warm core upper lows comes to mind. They produced copious amounts of rain that year. Exact year, I can't be certain about.
I dunno, everyone. This coming weather maker sounds like a two-edged sword to me. One the one hand, yes, the rain from it benefits everyone and eases the drought. But, on the other hand, well, could it also create a life-threatening weather situation for most Houstonians?
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hold on tight
Paul Robison

skidog40 wrote:hold on tight
Are you trying to answer my question, skidog40?
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lets recap-- one of the worst and late winters in history for North America, a major hurricane on may 25th, first of four blood moons and I'm seeing circulation over land across central U.S. that's bringing a lot of rain. one thing we cant control is the weather no matter how civilized we are or how our technology is so advanced the weather rules all.
Paul Robison

skidog40 wrote:lets recap-- one of the worst and late winters in history for North America, a major hurricane on may 25th, first of four blood moons and I'm seeing circulation over land across central U.S. that's bringing a lot of rain. one thing we cant control is the weather no matter how civilized we are or how our technology is so advanced the weather rules all.
In English: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Seriously, I do believe this storm system is going to cause Houston some problems. Nothing like Hurricane Amanda, I know, but still......who knows?
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in spanish: esperar lo peor
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Latest Euro 10-day shows 6-9" over Harris County and 10"+ over the Beaumont area.
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Looks like there may be some signs of a possible mcs devlopment NW of San Antonio
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Morning Update from Jeff.

Increasing potential for heavy to excessive rainfall starting Tuesday and lasting through much of the week.

Slow moving upper level low pressure system located over the SW US which has been responsible for heavy rainfall across much of the drought plagued west TX this weekend will meander eastward and be located near Sabine Pass by late this week. Deep tropical moisture axis connected to Hurricane Amanda in the eastern Pacific is edging closer to SE TX this morning and as the upper low moves eastward should become situated across the region starting Tuesday.

Thus far slow moving thunderstorm complexes have remained west of our region, but this should change tonight into Tuesday as the moisture axis over central TX moves eastward along with dynamics with the upper level low. The past few days have shown very slow storm motions and cell training in a very moist “tropical” environment which has led to heavy rainfall amounts in a short period of time.

Rainfall Amounts:

Since this system is slow moving and has the potential to produce multiple heavy rainfall episodes over a 24-72 hour period the threat for flooding will be gradually increasing through the week as the ground saturates. The air mass is expected to become nearly saturated and tropical with moisture levels increasing to near +2 SD above normal for late May. This combined with slow storm motions and potential cell training points toward some heavy rainfall amounts.

Amounts will average 2-4 inches across the region with isolated totals significantly higher…possibly as much as 6-8 inches by the end of the week. This is the type of weather set up that can produce a lot of rainfall in a very short period of time. It is nearly impossible to predict where the heaviest rainfall amounts may occur especially when multiple rounds of heavy rains will occur.

Will also need to watch for the current “cold” core upper level system to attempt to transition toward a “warm” core feature as it slowly moves across a very tropical like environment. This transition would change the daily rainfall pattern away from daytime heating induced storms to more nocturnal development near/around the center of the system…or it will begin to behave very much like a dying tropical system.
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Today's forecast is getting more interesting with that cluster to the SW slowly expanding, and some heating between the breaks. The rain further west towards I-35 is also steadily moving eastward. It's still early in the day, and there's plenty of time for outflows to make their way eastward. The PWAT map also shows more moisture working this way NE from SC Texas/RGV region.

It looks like this system is the real deal for some much-needed rain across the area this week. We just need to keep a close watch out for flooding, especially as the week wears on.
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jasons wrote:Today's forecast is getting more interesting with that cluster to the SW slowly expanding, and some heating between the breaks. The rain further west towards I-35 is also steadily moving eastward. It's still early in the day, and there's plenty of time for outflows to make their way eastward. The PWAT map also shows more moisture working this way NE from SC Texas/RGV region.

It looks like this system is the real deal for some much-needed rain across the area this week. We just need to keep a close watch out for flooding, especially as the week wears on.

WPC Forecaster David Roth commented on Facebook this morning that such an event has a potential to drop up to 16 inches of rain across portions of East Texas/SW Louisiana into next weekend.

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So a 6 to 8 inch forecast means I can reliably count on 6 to 8 tenths of an inch. Got it.
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Image :shock:
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From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/26/14 1429Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1415Z JS
.
LOCATION...TEXAS/S OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...EARLY LOOK AT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TODAY.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1430-0000Z...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CERTAINLY A DIFFICULT SITUATION TO PINPOINT THREAT
AREAS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THOUGH
A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL SPOTS APPEAR TO HAVE SOME SUPPORT.
.
FOR W TX TO S CENT OK...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NW TX DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO ARC OUTWARD TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. WHILE CONVECTION IS STILL DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER W OK, THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
BOUNDARY IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE LOSING SOME OF ITS DEFINITION OVER
W CENT TX. GOES SOUNDER INSTABILITY PRODUCTS ARE SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY TO THE S OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THOUGH CINH REMAINS AT
THIS TIME. ALSO NOTING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AIDED BY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY SW OF MIDLAND TX. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HELPING TO FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY
FROM DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING SE FROM E AZ INTO SW NM, MAY NEED TO
WATCH THE AREA OVER W CENT TX FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
DAY WHICH COULD FOCUS ALONG WHAT'S LEFT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE
THE GREATER THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ALONG THE S END
OF THE OUTFLOW OVER W CENT TX, THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE AREA
FARTHER TO THE NE OVER N CENT TX POSSIBLY TO NEAR THE RED RIVER COULD
HAVE SOME POTENTIAL IF THE OUTFLOW SLOWS DOWN ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF
CELL TRAINING. GRAPHIC WITH THREAT AREA ON THE INTERNET IN 10 MINUTES.
.
FOR S CENT TO E CENT/SE TX...THE SITUATION OVER S CENT TO SE TX INVOLVES
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
FAVORING HIGH RAIN RATES LOCALLY TO OVER 2"/HR GIVEN THE LOW TO MID
70'S SFC DEWPOINTS AND 2.0" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARBY. ADDING TO
THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS THE LOCATION OF THE ACTIVITY CLOSE TO
THE SEPARATION OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL STREAMS. WITH INSTABILITY
GROWING TO THE S AND SW OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LINE APPROACHING S CENT TX AND THE SMALLER
COMPLEX OVER SE TX, EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN BETWEEN THE
2 COMPLEXES WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CELL TRAINING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON MOST LIKELY FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED
BY SAN ANTONIO TO VICTORIA. DESPITE THE CELL PROPAGATION, BELIEVE THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH TRAINING AND HIGH ENOUGH RAIN RATES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO PUSH LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER 2" OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LLJ ALONG THE S PERIPHERY OF THE COMPLEX APPROACHING SAN
ANTONIO WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF S CENT
TO SE TX WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO
IS ONLY LOW-MED. GRAPHIC WITH THREAT AREA ON THE INTERNET IN 10 MINUTES.
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Flood reports starting to come in across Central Texas. Many low water crossings are impassable. Street flooding reported in downtown New Braunfels.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1120 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BANDERA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN BEXAR COUNTY...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL BLANCO COUNTY...
WESTERN COMAL COUNTY...
SOUTHERN KENDALL COUNTY...
NORTHERN MEDINA COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN UVALDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 1111 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KREUTZBERG...BANDERA FALLS...TIMBERWOOD PARK...THE DOMINION...LEON
SPRINGS...FAIR OAKS RANCH...CROSS MOUNTAIN...PIPE CREEK...SPRING
BRANCH...SMITHSON VALLEY...GUADALUPE RIVER STATE PARK...BULVERDE
AND BERGHEIM
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1108 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

TXC239-481-261800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0008.140526T1608Z-140526T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JACKSON TX-WHARTON TX-
1108 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1106 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...EDNA...GANADO...DANEVANG...MORALES...LAKE TEXANA DAM...
CORDELE AND LOUISE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.
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Flood reports coming in from the San Antonio area. Some underpasses along Loop 410 are impassable with many vehicles flooded. The storm complex is dropping between 2 to 3 inch hour rain rates.

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Attachments
05262014 1621Z TX VIS latest.jpg
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

TXZ173-192>194-261730-
BASTROP-LEE-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
1148 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BASTROP...SOUTHEASTERN
WILLIAMSON...EXTREME EASTERN TRAVIS AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1143 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TAYLOR TO ELGIN...
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
THRALL...
FEDOR...
CEDAR HILLS...
HOXIE...
BEYARSVILLE...
NOACK...
BUTLER...
SANDOVAL...
MCDADE...
KNOBB SPRINGS...
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Funnel cloud reported in Bastrop County by Emergency Manager. Also high water rescues under way in Bexar County HWY 151/ Loop 410.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1215 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 1214 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN EDNA AND GANADO. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF 4
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EDNA...GANADO...LOLITA...LAKE TEXANA DAM...CORDELE AND VANDERBILT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.
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